@article{article_1782621, title={The contribution of hydropower in meeting electric energy needs of MINT countries}, journal={Gazi Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi Part C: Tasarım ve Teknoloji}, year={2026}, DOI={10.29109/gujsc.1782621}, url={https://izlik.org/JA58RT22WZ}, author={Uzlu, Ergun and Dede, Tayfun}, keywords={MINT ülkeleri, Hidroelektrik üretimi, AOA algoritması, Jaya algoritması, Yapay sinir ağları}, abstract={Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey (collectively referred to as MINT) are fast-growing developing countries with the potential to achieve large and technologically advanced economies in the coming decades. Energy policies must be implemented to enable them to meet their increasing energy needs effectively and efficiently without threatening environmental health. Such policies will require realistic energy projections. The main goal of this paper is to develop hydroelectric energy generation (HEG) and total electricity production (TEP) projections for MINT countries to determine the contribution of HEG to the future TEP of MINT countries. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained by the arithmetic optimization algorithm (AOA) is used to develop HEG and TEP prediction models. Models were developed based on socio-economic, demographic, and energy indicators. To examine model performance accuracy, results obtained from ANN-AOA models were compared with results from ANN-BP (back propagation) and ANN-Jaya models. According to error criteria, ANN-AOA models outperformed these other models with both training and test sets. Hence, ANN-AOA technique was used to develop HEG and TEP projections. According to the present projections, the total HEG and HEP values of MINT countries in 2040 is expected to increase by 55.6% and 44.4% compared to 2022, reaching 215.8 and 1530.3 TWh, respectively. In addition, while the contribution of HEG to TEP was 56.9% in 2021, this value will decrease to 51.6% in 2040. The findings of this study suggest that current hydroelectric energy investments of MINT countries are not sufficient to achieve renewable energy targets. Consequently, recommendations are included herein for the energy policies of MINT countries.}, number={Advanced Online Publication}