TY  - JOUR
T1  - Flood Susceptibility Mapping in the İskenderun Gulf Basins (Türkiye) Using Morphometric and Multivariate Techniques
TT  - İskenderun Körfez Havzalarında (Türkiye) Morfometrik ve Çok Değişkenli Teknikler Kullanılarak Taşkın Duyarlılığı Haritalama
AU  - Ghasemlounıa, Redvan
AU  - Utlu, Mustafa
AU  - Demirbilek, Semir
PY  - 2025
DA  - October
Y2  - 2025
DO  - 10.46453/jader.1790383
JF  - Jeomorfolojik Araştırmalar Dergisi
JO  - JADER
PB  - Jeomorfoloji Derneği
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2667-4238
SP  - 170
EP  - 188
IS  - 15
LA  - en
AB  - Floods, whose frequency and severity have increased due to both climate change and anthropogenic effects such as urbanization, deforestation, and land use changes, continue to pose serious risks to human life, infrastructure, and ecosystems worldwide. In regions like southern Türkiye, where complex topography, orographic precipitation, and rapid urban growth intersect, understanding flood dynamics is particularly critical. This study evaluates the flood susceptibility of 24 river basins that drain into the Gulf of İskenderun, focusing on the districts of Erzin, Dörtyol, İskenderun, Arsuz and Belen in Hatay Province. In this study, we developed a comprehensive framework for assessing spatial flood risk by integrating morphometric analysis with statistical classification methods. Fourteen morphometric parameters derived from 10-meter resolution digital elevation models were processed using GIS-based analyses. The proposed methodology involves two complementary analytical techniques: the Normalized Morphometric Flood Index (NMFI) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). While the NMFI method enables a normalized (between 0 and 1) and weighted evaluation of flood susceptibility, PCA reduces data dimensionality and highlights the most influential morphometric factors contributing to flood potential. According to the results, a significant portion of the 24 river basins included in the study the moderate to high flood susceptibility categories. Moreover, PCA demonstrated superior performance compared to NMFI in terms of classification accuracy, recall rate, and overall reliability. Our analysis identified drainage density (Dd), bifurcation ratio (Rb), time of concentration (Tc), circularity ratio (Rc), and basin relief (Bh) as key parameters influencing flood potential. The strong agreement observed between the two methods suggests that morphometric analysis can serve as an effective tool for determining flood risk, particularly in basins where observational data is limited or flow gauging stations are absent. This research contributes not only to flood hazard and risk assessments but also to infrastructure planning and the development of disaster mitigation strategies. The proposed methodology can also be applied to other flood-prone areas with similar topographic and hydrological characteristics, thereby supporting sustainable watershed management.
KW  - Flood susceptibility
KW  - Morphometric parameters
KW  - PCA
KW  - NMFI
KW  - Drainage basin
N2  - Floods, whose frequency and severity have increased due to both climate change and anthropogenic effects such as urbanization, deforestation, and land use changes, continue to pose serious risks to human life, infrastructure, and ecosystems worldwide. In regions like southern Türkiye, where complex topography, orographic precipitation, and rapid urban growth intersect, understanding flood dynamics is particularly critical. This study evaluates the flood susceptibility of 24 river basins that drain into the Gulf of İskenderun, focusing on the districts of Erzin, Dörtyol, İskenderun, Arsuz and Belen in Hatay Province. In this study, we developed a comprehensive framework for assessing spatial flood risk by integrating morphometric analysis with statistical classification methods. Fourteen morphometric parameters derived from 10-meter resolution digital elevation models were processed using GIS-based analyses. The proposed methodology involves two complementary analytical techniques: the Normalized Morphometric Flood Index (NMFI) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). While the NMFI method enables a normalized (between 0 and 1) and weighted evaluation of flood susceptibility, PCA reduces data dimensionality and highlights the most influential morphometric factors contributing to flood potential. According to the results, a significant portion of the 24 river basins included in the study the moderate to high flood susceptibility categories. Moreover, PCA demonstrated superior performance compared to NMFI in terms of classification accuracy, recall rate, and overall reliability. Our analysis identified drainage density (Dd), bifurcation ratio (Rb), time of concentration (Tc), circularity ratio (Rc), and basin relief (Bh) as key parameters influencing flood potential. The strong agreement observed between the two methods suggests that morphometric analysis can serve as an effective tool for determining flood risk, particularly in basins where observational data is limited or flow gauging stations are absent. This research contributes not only to flood hazard and risk assessments but also to infrastructure planning and the development of disaster mitigation strategies. The proposed methodology can also be applied to other flood-prone areas with similar topographic and hydrological characteristics, thereby supporting sustainable watershed management.
CR  - Alam, A., Ahmed, B., & Sammonds, P. (2021). Flash flood susceptibility assessment using the parameters of drainage basin morphometry in SE Bangladesh. Quaternary International,575–576:295–307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2020.04.047
CR  - Alifujiang, Y., Abuduwaili, J., Groll, M., Issanova, G., & Maihemuti, B. (2021). Changes in intra-annual runoff and its response to climate variability and anthropogenic activity in the Lake Issyk-Kul Basin, Kyrgyzstan. CATENA, 198:104974. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2020.104974
CR  - Arabameri, A., Tiefenbacher, J.P., Blaschke, T., Bradhan, B., & Bui, D.T. (2020). Morphometric analysis for soil erosion susceptibility mapping using novel GIS-based ensemble model. Remote Sensing, 12:874. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12050874
CR  - Arnell, N.W., & Gosling, S.N. (2016). The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change, 134:387–401. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5
CR  - Aydin, O., & Raja, N.B. (2020). Spatial-temporal analysis of precipitation characteristics in Artvin, Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 142:729–741. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03346-6
CR  - Balcı, E., Bilgen, G., & Aksoy, S.H. (2024). Flood risk awareness and transportation mode choice in communities with varying flooding frequencies: The cases of Bozkurt, Kastamonu, Turkey and Malanday, Marikina, Philippines. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 113:104819. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104819
CR  - Bashir, B., & Alsalman, A. (2024). Characteristics and comparative assessment of flash flood hazard evaluation techniques: Insights from Wadi Haily Basin, Eastern Red Sea Coast, Saudi Arabia. Water (Switzerland), 16. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16243634
CR  - Bhat, M.S., Alam, A., Ahmad, S., Shah, H.F., & Ahmad, B. (2019). Flood hazard assessment of upper Jhelum basin using morphometric parameters. Environmental Earth Sciences, 78:1–17. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-019-8046-1
CR  - Demirbilek, S., & Turoğlu, H. (2025). Arsuz Çayı Havzası’nın sel duyarlılık analizi. Doğu Coğrafya Dergisi, 30(53), 96-111. https://doi.org/10.17295/ataunidcd.1629115
CR  - Dickie, G. (2022). Floods, other water-related disasters could cost global economy $5.6 trillion by 2050 -report, Reuters
CR  - DSİ. (2012). Annual flood reports
CR  - El-Fakharany, M.A., & Mansour, N.M. (2021). Morphometric analysis and flash floods hazards assessment for Wadi Al Aawag drainage Basins, southwest Sinai, Egypt. Environmental Earth Sciences, 80:1–17. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-021-09457-1
CR  - Enea, A., Stoleriu, C. C., Iosub, M., & Niacsu, L. (2024). A GIS Automated Tool for Morphometric Flood Analysis Based on the Horton–Strahler River Classification System. Water, 16(4), 536. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16040536
CR  - Farhan, Y., Anbar, A., Al-Shaikh, N., & Mousa, R. (2017). Prioritization of semi-arid agricultural watershed using morphometric and principal component analysis, remote sensing, and GIS techniques, the Zerqa River Watershed, Northern Jordan. Agricultural Science, 08:113–148. https://doi.org/10.4236/as.2017.81009
CR  - Ghasemlounia, R., & Utlu, M. (2021). Flood prioritization of basins based on geomorphometric properties using principal component analysis, morphometric analysis and Redvan’s priority methods: A case study of Harşit River basin. Journal of Hydrology, 603:127061. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127061
CR  - Gravelius, H. (1914). Grundrifi der gesamten Gewcisserkunde. Band I: Flufikunde (Compendium of Hydrology, Vol. I. Rivers, in German). Goschen, Berlin.
CR  - Gürer, İ., & Uçar, İ. (2009). Flood Disasters’ Inventory in Turkey in 2009. Elev Int Symp Water Manag Hydraul Eng 371–380
CR  - Haltas, I., Yildirim, E., Oztas, F., & Demir, I. (2021). A comprehensive flood event specification and inventory: 1930–2020 Turkey case study. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 56:102086. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102086
CR  - Hirabayashi, Y., Kanae, S., Emori, S., Oki, T., & Kimoto, M. (2008). Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53:754–772. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.53.4.754
CR  - Hirabayashi, Y., Mahendran, R., Koirala, S., Konoshima, L., Yamazaki, D., Watanabe, S., Kim, H., & Kanae, S. (2013). Global flood risk under climate change. Nature Climate Change, 3:816–821. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1911
CR  - Horton, R.E. (1945). Erosional development of streams and their drainage basins: hydrophysical approach to quantitative morphology. Bulletin of the Geological Society of America 56, 2 75-3 70. Prog Phys Geogr Earth Environ 19:533–554. https://doi.org/10.1177/030913339501900406
CR  - Horton, R.E. (1932). Drainage-basin characteristics. Trans Am Geophys Union 13:350. https://doi.org/10.1029/TR013i001p00350
CR  - Kirpich, Z. P. (1940). Time of concentration of small agricultural watersheds. Journal of Civil Engineering, 10(6), 362.
CR  - Koç, G., Petrow, T., ve Thieken, A. H. (2020). Analysisof the most severe flood events in Turkey (1960-2014): Which triggering mechanisms andaggravating pathways can be identified? Water (Switzerland), 12(6), 1–32. https://doi.org/10.3390/W12061562
CR  - Kowalzig, J. (2008). Climate, Poverty, and Justice: What the Poznan UN climate conference needs to deliver for a fair and effective global deal. Oxfam Policy Pract Clim Chang Resil 4:117–148
CR  - Kumar Rai, P., Narayan Mishra, V., & Mohan, K. (2017). A study of morphometric evaluation of the Son basin, India using geospatial approach. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 7:9–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2017.05.001
CR  - Mayer, L. (1990) Introduction to Quantitative Geomorphology. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs.
CR  - Melton, M. (1957). An analysis of the relation among elements of climate, surface properties and geomorphology. Office of Naval Research Technical Report No. 11, (11), 99. New York
CR  - Milly, P., Wetherald, R.T., Dunne, K.A., & Delworth, T. (2002). Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate. Nature, 415:514–517. https://doi.org/10.1038/415514a
CR  - Mishra, A.K., & Rai, S.C. (2020). Geo-hydrological inferences through morphometric aspects of the Himalayan glacial-fed river: a case study of the Madhyamaheshwar River basin. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 13:533. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-05571-9
CR  - Obeidat, M., Awawdeh, M., & Al-Hantouli, F. (2021). Morphometric analysis and prioritisation of watersheds for flood risk management in Wadi Easal Basin (WEB), Jordan, using geospatial technologies. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 14:1–19. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12711
CR  - OECD. (2016). Financial Management of Flood Risk, First Edit. OECD Publishing, Paris.   https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264257689-en
CR  - Özay, B., & Orhan, O. (2023). Flood susceptibility mapping by best–worst and logistic regression methods in Mersin, Turkey. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30:45151–45170. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-25423-9
CR  - Özdemir, H., & Akbaş, A. (2023). Is there a consistency in basin morphometry and hydrodynamic modelling results in terms of the flood generation potential of basins? A case study from the Ulus River Basin (Türkiye). Journal of Hydrology, 625:129926. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129926
CR  - Pike, R. J., & Wilson, S. E. (1971). Elevation-relief ratio, hypsometric integral, and geomorphic area-altitude analysis. Bulletin of the Geological Society of America, 82(4), 1079–1084.
CR  - Rai, P.K., Chandel, R.S., Mishra, V.N., & Singh, P. (2018). Hydrological inferences through morphometric analysis of lower Kosi river basin of India for water resource management based on remote sensing data. Applied Water Science, 8:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-018-0660-7
CR  - Rai, P.K., Singh, P., Mishra, V.N., Singh, A., Sajan, B., & Shahi, A.P. (2020) Geospatial approach for quantitative drainage morphometric analysis of varuna river basin, India. Journal of Landscape Ecology, 12:1–25. https://doi.org/10.2478/jlecol-2019-0007
CR  - Rentschler, J., Salhab, M., & Jafino, B.A. (2022). Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries. Nat Commun 13:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30727-4
CR  - Schumm, S.A. (1956). Evolution of drainage systems and slopes in badlands at Perth Amboy, New Jersey. GSA Bull 67:597–646. https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1956)67[597:EODSAS]2.0.CO;2
CR  - Smith, K. G. (1950). Standards for grading texture of erosional topography. American Journal of Science, 248(9), 655–668. https://doi.org/10.2475/ajs.248.9.655
CR  - Sreedevi, P.D., Subrahmanyam, K., & Ahmed, S. (2005). The significance of morphometric analysis for obtaining groundwater potential zones in a structurally controlled terrain. Environmental Geology, 47:412–420. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-004-1166-1
CR  - Strahler, A.N. (1952). Hypsometric (area-altitude) analysis of erosional topography. Bulletin of the Geological Society of America, 63:1117–1142
CR  - Strahler, A. N. (1958). Dimensional analysis applied to fluvially eroded landforms. GSA Bulletin, 69(3), 279–300. https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1958)69[279:DAATFE]2.0.CO;2
CR  - Strahler, A.N. (1964). Quantitative geomorphology of drainage basins and channel networks. In: Chow, V., Ed., Handbook of Applied Hydrology, McGraw Hill, New York, 439-476.
CR  - Sutradhar, S., & Mondal, P. (2023). Prioritization of watersheds based on morphometric assessment in relation to flood management: A case study of Ajay river basin, Eastern India. Watershed Ecology and the Environment, 5:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wsee.2022.11.011
CR  - Taşoğlu, E., Öztürk, M. Z. & Yazıcı, Ö. (2024). High Resolution Köppen-Geiger Climate Zones of Türkiye. International Journal of Climatology, 44(14), 5248-5265.
CR  - Tayanç, M., İm, U., Doğruel, M., & Karaca, M. (2009). Climate change in Turkey for the last half century. Climatic Change, 94:483–502. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9511-0
CR  - Telore, N. V. (2020). Quantitative Morphometric Analysis of the Yerla River Basin, Deccan Trap Region, India. Içinde: Sahdev S, Singh RB, Manish K (ed) In Geoecology of Landscape Dynamic, First. Singapore, ss 115–132
CR  - Trenberth, K.E. (2011). Changes in precipitation with climate change. Climate Research, 47:123–138. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00953
CR  - Tukura, N.G., Akalu, M.M., Hussein, M., & Befekadu, A. (2021). Morphometric analysis and sub-watershed prioritization of Welmal watershed, Ganale-Dawa River Basin, Ethiopia: implications for sediment erosion. Journal of Sedimentary Environments, 6:121–130. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43217-020-00039-y
CR  - Utlu, M., Şimşek, M., & Öztürk, M. Z. (2020). 1D Taşkin Modellemeleri Açisindan Topo Dem ve Alos Dsm Verilerinin Karşilaştirilmasi: Alara Çayi Örneği. Ege Coğrafya Dergisi, 29(2), 161-177. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ecd/issue/58525/775152
CR  - Utlu, M., & Ghasemlounia, R. (2021). Flood Prioritization Watersheds of the Aras River, Based on Geomorphometric Properties: Case Study Iğdır Province. Jeomorfolojik Araştırmalar Dergisi (6), 21-40. https://doi.org/10.46453/jader.781152
CR  - Utlu, M. (2023). Frekans Oranı ve Shannon Entropisi Yöntemi Kullanarak Ezine Çayı Havzası Taşkın Duyarlılık Analizi (Kastamonu-Bozkurt). Jeomorfolojik Araştırmalar Dergisi (11), 160-178. https://doi.org/10.46453/jader.1358845
CR  - Youssef, A.M., Pradhan, B., & Hassan, A.M. (2011). Flash flood risk estimation along the St. Katherine road, southern Sinai, Egypt using GIS based morphometry and satellite imagery. Environmental Earth Science, 62:611–623. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-010-0551-1
CR  - Yüksek, Ö., Kankal, M., & Üçüncü, O. (2013). Assessment of big floods in the Eastern Black Sea Basin of Turkey. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 185:797–814. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-012-2592-2
CR  - Url-1 https://worldcover2021.esa.int/viewer
CR  - Url-2 https://www.iha.com.tr/haber-hatayda-sel-felaketi-426874
CR  - Url-3 https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/turkiye/cokek-yaylasinda-sel-heyelana-neden-oldu-5-olu/231351
UR  - https://doi.org/10.46453/jader.1790383
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/5270931
ER  -