TY  - JOUR
T1  - Karadeniz Liman Ağında Mekansal Yoğunlaşma ve Merkez-Çevre Dönüşümü: 2010-2024 Dönemi Üzerine Dinamik Ağ Analizi
TT  - Spatial Concentration and Core-Periphery Transformation in the Black Sea Port Network: A Dynamic Network Analysis for the 2010-2024 Period
AU  - Çelikkaya, Süha
PY  - 2026
DA  - June
Y2  - 2026
DO  - 10.52791/aksarayiibd.1949127
JF  - Aksaray Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi
JO  - ASÜ İİBF Dergisi
PB  - Aksaray Üniversitesi
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2687-3427
SP  - 187
EP  - 198
VL  - 18
IS  - 2
LA  - tr
AB  - Bu çalışma, 2014 Kırım ilhakı ve 2022 Rusya-Ukrayna savaşını iki temel jeopolitik kırılma noktası olarak ele alarak Karadeniz liman ağının 2010-2024 dönemindeki yapısal dönüşümünü dinamik ağ analizi yöntemiyle incelemektedir. Türkiye, Rusya Federasyonu, Ukrayna, Romanya, Bulgaristan ve Gürcistan'ı kapsayan çalışmada UNCTAD Stat veri tabanından derlenen konteyner liman hacmi (TEU), Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI) ve Bilateral LSCI verileri kullanılmıştır. Her yıl için bağımsız ağ matrisleri kurulmuş; strength centrality, betweenness centrality ve ağ yoğunluğu metrikleri hesaplanmıştır. Yapısal kırılmalar Chow testi ve CUSUM analizi ile istatistiksel olarak doğrulanmıştır. Bulgular üç temel sonucu ortaya koymaktadır: 2014 kırılması istatistiksel açıdan anlamlı ancak kademeli bir dönüşüme yol açmış; 2022 savaşı Ukrayna'yı fiilen ağdan dışlarken Rusya'nın bağlantısallığını kalıcı biçimde zayıflatmıştır; Türkiye ise her iki dönemde kesintisiz büyümesini sürdürerek Karadeniz'in yeni merkezi konumuna yükselmiştir. Ağ yoğunluğunun 0.87'den 0.73'e gerilemesi, yaşanan dönüşümün salt bir merkez-çevre yer değiştirmesinin ötesine geçtiğini ve ağın toplamsal kapasitesinin zayıfladığını göstermektedir. Bulgular, jeopolitik şokların liman ağlarında asimetrik ve ölçülebilir sonuçlar doğurduğuna işaret etmektedir.
KW  - Karadeniz
KW  - Liman ağı
KW  - Dinamik ağ analizi
KW  - Merkez-çevre dönüşümü
N2  - This study examines the structural transformation of the Black Sea port network over the 2010-2024 period, treating the 2014 Crimea annexation and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war as two critical geopolitical breakpoints. Using UNCTAD Stat data — container port throughput, the Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI), and the Bilateral LSCI — a dynamic network analysis is conducted for six countries: Turkey, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, and Georgia. Annual network matrices are constructed, and strength centrality, betweenness centrality, and network density metrics are computed. Structural breaks are statistically verified through Chow tests and CUSUM analysis. Three key findings emerge. First, the 2014 annexation triggered a statistically significant yet gradual structural shift, with the full network-level consequences materializing incrementally. Second, the 2022 war rapidly excluded Ukraine from the regional network while permanently weakening Russia's connectivity. Third, Turkey sustained uninterrupted growth across both periods, consolidating its position as the dominant hub of the Black Sea network. Network density declined from 0.87 in 2013 to 0.73 in 2023, indicating that the transformation extends beyond a mere core-periphery shift toward an overall erosion of network capacity. These findings contribute to the growing literature on geopolitical risk and maritime network resilience by demonstrating that political shocks generate asymmetric, measurable, and irreversible structural changes in regional port systems.
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UR  - https://doi.org/10.52791/aksarayiibd.1949127
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/6003479
ER  -