TY  - JOUR
TT  - Leading Indicators of 2008 Global Crisis: An Analysis With Logit and Mars Methods
AU  - Yüksel, Serhat
AU  - Zengin, Sinemis
PY  - 2016
DA  - July
DO  - 10.14784/marufacd.266525
JF  - Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi
JO  - JFRS
PB  - Marmara Üniversitesi
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 1309-1123
SP  - 495
EP  - 518
VL  - 8
IS  - 15
KW  - Bankacılık Krizleri
KW  - Uyarı Sinyaleri
KW  - MARS
KW  - Logit
N2  - This study aims to determine the leading indicators of the global mortgage crisis occurred in USA in2008. Within this scope, we used 14 explanatory variables in order to understand the determinants of thiscrisis. Moreover, annual data for the periods between 1984 and 2014 was analyzed by using MARS and logitmodels so as to achieve this objective. As a result of the analysis, it was identified that non-performing loansand bank derivatives are the main indicators of this crisis according to MARS method. On the other hand,the amount of total assets and non-performing loans are significant reasons of the crisis with respect to theanalysis of logit method. Another result of this study is that MARS method is more successful than logitmethod in order to predict the crisis.
UR  - https://doi.org/10.14784/marufacd.266525
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/233046
ER  -