@article{article_297928, title={DETERMINING FUTURE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FOR KAHRAMANMARAS CITY USING MARKOV CHAIN APPROACH}, journal={Turkish Journal of Forest Science}, volume={1}, pages={75–84}, year={2017}, DOI={10.32328/turkjforsci.297928}, url={https://izlik.org/JA78RT69ZY}, author={Reis, Mahmut and Dutal, Hurem and Kayrak, Zeynep}, keywords={Markov zinciri modeli,yağış tahmini,iklim değişikliği}, abstract={<p> <b> <span lang="en-us" style="font-size:11pt;line-height:115%;font-family:’Times New Roman’, serif;" xml:lang="en-us">ABSTRACT: </span> </b> <span lang="en-us" style="font-size:11pt;line-height:115%;font-family:’Times New Roman’, serif;" xml:lang="en-us"> Precipitation is
unique source meeting water need of all ecosystems in the world. It is the
irreplaceable element of the organism life. Turkey, particularly its
Mediterranean region, ranks among the regions expected precipitation changes
due to climate change. Kahramanmaras is located in Mediterranean region where
is expected to experience the effects of the climate change at the very most.
Since Kahramanmaras has the largest water reserve in Turkey, it is acknowledged
as a rational way that alterations in the area should be watched consistently
and future plans should be made in the light of a set of prediction models. In
this study, it is aimed to predict future precipitation probability for
Kahramanmaras city using Markov chain model. For this purpose, 44 years
precipitation data including 1970-2014 period belonging to Kahramanmaras
precipitation station has been used. Precipitation data has been classified by
taking SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) criterions into consideration. In
order to test the model accuracy, observed value in 2014 has been compared with
predictions of the model for 2014. Then the model is run for 2015, 2016, 2017,
2018, 2019 and 2020 years. When results have been examined, negligible
differences have been seen among predictions value for these years. Thus the results
of these 6 years are submitted as a single vector. According to this, predicted
precipitation amounts and their probability of occurrences are 1079 mm and
above with 7%, 990-1078 mm with 5%, 545-900 mm with 74%, 456-544 mm with 12%
and 367-455 mm with 2% for 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively.
In addition to this, precipitation amounts are not expected to occur 901-989 mm
and 366 mm and below for all these years in Kahramanmaras. </span> <br /> </p>}, number={1}