TY  - JOUR
TT  - Yatırımcıların Hisse Getirisi Beklentileri Üzerinde Geçmişin Gölgesi: Geçmiş Ekstrapolasyonu
AU  - Karaa, İbrahim Emre
PY  - 2017
DA  - April
DO  - 10.18657/yonveek.307516
JF  - Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi
JO  - YÖNEKO
PB  - Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 1302-0064
SP  - 151
EP  - 168
VL  - 24
IS  - 1
KW  - Return expectations
KW  - overconfidence
KW  - overoptimism
N2  - Etkin piyasalar hipotezi, yatırımcıların rasyonel beklentileri olacağını ve rasyonel kararlar vereceklerini ileri sürmektedir. Davranışsal finans çalışmalarında ise psikolojik yanlılıklar ve hevristikler sebebiyle yatırımcıların sistematik olarak rasyonaliteden saptıkları belirlenmiştir. Araştırmada öncelikle yatırımcıların getiri beklentilerini oluştururken rasyonaliteden uzaklaşarak aşırı güven ve iyimserlik içinde olduklarına ilişkin kanıtlar sunulmaktadır. İkinci olarak geçmiş ekstrapolasyonu; yatırımcıların hisse getiri beklentileri üzerinde kendi geçmiş hisse getirilerinin ve geçmiş finansal göstergelerin etkisi ile belirlenmiştir. Üçüncü olarak, yatırımcıların geçmiş hisse getirileri, hisse beklentileri üzerinde çok etkili olduğunda bu etki hiçbir finansal gösterge değişkeni ile azalmamaktadır. Dolayısıyla yatırımcıların geleneksel teorinin öngördüğü şekilde rasyonel olmadıkları bulgulanmıştır.
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UR  - https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.307516
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/295711
ER  -