@article{article_311771, title={The Red-Bull Effect: Causes and Consequences of Overconfidence in Foreign Policy Decision Making}, journal={Marmara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilimler Dergisi}, volume={5}, pages={123–140}, year={2017}, author={Demir, İmran}, keywords={Overconfidence,Past Success,Risk,Attribution Bias,Escalation of Commitment}, abstract={<p>Why do foreign policy decision makers take risk in situations that require prudence? Why do they </p> <p>escalate their commit to a failing course of action? This research examines the impact of overconfidence </p> <p>in foreign policy decision making. Building on extensive literature in social psychology, the premise of </p> <p>my argument is that successful past performance leads decision makers to develop overconfidence in </p> <p>their judgment, capacity and expectations, which bias their risk assessments. Based on this assumption, </p> <p>I develop a model that explains the causes and consequences of overconfidence in foreign policy </p> <p>decision making. In the model, past success persuades decision makers to overweight their skills </p> <p>and knowledge relative to what objective evidence warrants, which generates inordinate risk taking </p> <p>and exposes decision makers to sever failures. However, belief in success survives despite glaring </p> <p>setbacks, which convinces decision makers to escalate their commitment to a failing course of action. </p> <p>Nevertheless, there is a limit to decision makers’ ability to engage in self-deception. Therefore, over the </p> <p>course of repeated failures, it is expected that the decision makers will make adjustments to correct </p> <p>overconfident reactions. </p>}, number={Özel Sayı Nisan 2017}, publisher={Marmara Üniversitesi}