TY - JOUR TT - ACADEMIC PERFORMANCE OF ECONOMETRICS STUDENTS IN QUANTITATIVE COURSES: A PREDICTION USING MARKOV MODEL AU - Kıral, Ersin AU - Mavruk, Can AU - Kıral, Gülsen PY - 2018 DA - January DO - 10.18092/ulikidince.347635 JF - Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi JO - IJEAS PB - Kenan ÇELİK WT - DergiPark SN - 1307-9832 SP - 617 EP - 632 KW - Ekonometri KW - Yüksek öğrenim KW - Markov modeli KW - ki kare testi N2 - Thisarticle investigates the academic performance of junior and senior students inquantitative courses at Econometrics Department of Cukurova University. Markovmodel is used to measure the success in core quantitative courses such asMathematical Economics, Econometrics and Time Series. To this end, persistenceand effectiveness of success are estimated from transition probability matrix. Wehave found that Micro Economics II and Micro Economics I have the highestpersistence and effectiveness over Econometrics II in Turkish program. In the longrun, Econometrics II has the highest probability of improvement and of decline inacademic progress in Turkish program and English program respectively. In theshort run, persistence in success is the lowest in transition from MicroEconomics II to Econometrics I and from Statistics to Time Series I in Turkishand English program respectively. CR - Baasch, A., Tischew, S. ve Bruelheide, H. (2010). Twelve years of succession on sandy substrates in a post-mining landscape: A Markov chain analysis, Ecological Applications, 20(4), 1136-1147. CR - Cavers, M.S. ve Vasudevan, K. (2015). Brief Communication: Earthquake sequencing: Analysis of Time Series constructed from the Markov Chain Model, Nonlinear Process Geophysics, 22, 589-599. CR - Farg, M. H. M. ve Khalil, F. M. H. (2015). Statistical Analysis of Academic Level of Student in Quantitative Methods Courses By Using Chi-Square Test and Markov Chains - Case Study of Faculty of Sciences and Humanities (Thadiq). Nat Sci,12(12), 182- 186. CR - Grimshaw, S.D. ve Alexander, W.P. (2011). Markov Chain Models for Deliquency: Transition Matrix Estimation and Forecasting, John Wiley&Sons, Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 27, 267-279. CR - Industrial Engineering Operations Research. (2008). Derman, E., Park, K.S. ve Whitt, W. http://ieor.columbia.edu/files/seasdepts/industrial-engineering-operations-research/pdf-files/Park_Informs.pdf CR - Lazri, M., Ameur, S., Brucker, J.M., Lahdir, M. ve Sehad, M. (2015). Analysis of drought areas in northern Algeria using Markov chains, J. Earth Syst. Sci., 124(1), 61–70. CR - Lukić, P.,Gocić, M. ve Trajković, S. (2013). Prediction of annual precipitation on the territory of south Serbia using Markov chains, Bulletin of the Faculty of Forestry, 108, 81-92. CR - Mavruk, C. ve Kıral, E. (2016). Academic progress of students in quantitative courses at Nigde University Vocatıonal School of Social Sciences: A predictıon using Markov model, Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(3), 267-276. CR - Mieruch, S., Noel, S., Bovensmann, H., Burrows, J. P. ve Freund, J. A. (2010). Markov chain analysis of regional climates. Nonlinear Processes in Goephysics, 17, 651–661. CR - Ng, W. S. (2013). Persistence of Mutual Fund Ratings: A Markov Chain Approach. Indian Finance Conference: Econometrics February 2013, Singapore Management University, Singapore. http://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/etd_coll/99 CR - Pehkonen, J. ve Tervo, H. (1998). Persistence and turnover ın regional unemployment disparities, Regional Studies, 32(5), 445-458. CR - Serfozo, R. (2009). Basics of Applied Stochastic Processes,(1st Edition). Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. CR - Usher, M.B. (1979). Markovian Approaches to Ecological Succession, Journal of Animal Ecology, 48(2), 413-426. CR - Yeh, H.W., Chan, W., Symanski, E. ve Davis, B.R. (2010). Estimating Transition Probabilities for Ignorable Intermittent Missing Data in a Discrete-Time Markov Chain, Communications in Statistics- Simulation and Computation, 39(2), 433-448. UR - https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.347635 L1 - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/408465 ER -