TY  - JOUR
TT  - Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply
AU  - Mostafaei, Hamidreza
AU  - Sakhabakhsh, Leila
PY  - 2012
DA  - March
JF  - International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
JO  - IJEEP
PB  - İlhan ÖZTÜRK
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2146-4553
SP  - 41
EP  - 49
VL  - 2
IS  - 1
KW  - Long memory
KW  - Conditional sum of squares
KW  - SARFIMA model
KW  - Oil
KW  - Iran
N2  - In this paper the specification of long memory has been studied using monthly data in total oil supply in Iran from 1994 to 2009. Because monthly oil supply series in Iran are showing non-stationary and periodic behavior we fit the data with SARIMA and SARFIMA models, and estimate the parameters using conditional sum of squares method. The results indicate the best model is SARFIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, -0.199, 0)12 which is used to predict the quantity of oil supply in Iran till the end of 2020. Therefore SARFIMA model can be used as the best model for predicting the amount of oil supply in the future.
UR  - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ijeeep/issue//350663
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/361158
ER  -