TY - JOUR TT - DÖVİZ KURU DEĞİŞMELERİNİN TÜRKİYE’NİN AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ TİCARETİ ÜZERİNE ETKİLERİ AU - Bal, Harun AU - Akça, Emrah Eray AU - Demiral, Mehmet PY - 2017 DA - December JF - Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi PB - Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi WT - DergiPark SN - 2146-5908 SP - 61 EP - 82 VL - 7 IS - 2 KW - DÖVİZ KURU KW - TİCARET DENGESİ KW - ARDL KW - MARSHALL LERNER KOŞULU KW - J-EĞRİSİ N2 - Buçalışma, reel kur değişmelerinin etkilerine odaklanarak, Türkiye’nin AvrupaBirliği (AB) ülkeleri ile olan ticaretinde dış ticaret dengesininbelirleyicilerine ilişkin yeni ampirik bulgular sunmaktadır. Genel sonuçlar,Türkiye’nin AB ile olan ticaret dengesinde yurtiçi ve yurtdışı gelirdüzeylerinin, reel döviz kurunun ve ihracatın ithal içeriğinin belirleyicifaktörler arasında olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Döviz kuru ayarlamalarınınyetersiz olması ve bazen ters etkilerin ortaya çıkması nedeniyle, süreklilikgösteren Türkiye’nin ticaret açıklarının azaltılması için döviz kurudeğişmeleri ile uyumlu bütünleşik ticaret politikası uygulamalarına ihtiyaçduyulmaktadır.  AnahtarKelimeler: Döviz kuru, Ticaretdengesi, ARDL, Marshall-Lerner koşulu, J-eğrisi. CR - Antonucci, D.,&Manzocchi, S. (2006). Does Turkey have a special trade relation with the EU?: A gravity model approach. Economic Systems, 30(2), 157-169. CR - Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1985). Devaluation and the J-curve: some evidence fromLDCs. The review of Economics and Statistics, 500-504. CR - Bal, H. & Demiral, M. (2012). Reel Döviz Kuru ve Ticaret Dengesi: Türkiye'nin Almanya ile Ticareti Örneği (2002.01-2012.09). Çukurova Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 16(2), 45-64. CR - Balcılar, M., Bal, H., Algan, N., & Demiral, M. (2014). Türkiye'nin IhracatPerformansi: Ihracat Hacminin Temel Belirleyicilerinin Incelenmesi (1995-2012. Ege Akademik Bakis, 14(3), 451-462. CR - Bayar, G.,&Tokpunar, S. (2013). Türk Lirası Reel Kuru Denge Değerinde Mi?. Ege Akademik Bakış, 13(4), 405-426. CR - Denaux, Z. S.,&Falks, R. (2013). Exchange rate volatility and trade flows: The EU and Turkey. South western Economic Review, 40, 113-121. CR - Dincer, N.,& Kandil, M. (2011). The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on exports: A sectoral analysis for Turkey. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 20(6), 809-837. CR - Doğanlar, M., Bal, H., & Özmen, M. (2006). Türkiye ile Almanya arasındaki dış ticaretin ekonometrik analizi ve gümrük birliği sonrası karşılaştırma. Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, 21(248), 50-65. CR - Eichengreen, B. (2007). The real exchange rate and economic growth. Social and Economic Studies. World Bank Commission and Development and Development Working Paper No 4, 1-48. CR - Gala, P.,&Rocha, M. (2009). Real Exchange rates, domestic and foreign savings: themissinglink.http://www.anpec.org.br/encontro2009/inscricao.on/arquivos/00029161fbd824c42bd0dad96399250aa0f.pdf. CR - Halicioglu, F. (2004). An ARDL model of international tourist flows to Turkey. Global Business and Economics Review, Anthology, 614-624. CR - Halicioglu, F. (2008). The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners. Journal of AsianEconomics, 19(3), 236-243. CR - Halicioglu, F.,&Dell’Anno, R. (2009). An ARDL model of unrecorded and recorded economies in Turkey. MPRA, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/25763/. CR - Hussain, M. E.,&Haque, M. (2014). Is the J-Curve a Reality in Developing Countries?. Journal of Economics and Political Economy, 1(2), 231-240. CR - Kizilca, F. K. (2006). How did export-led growth strategy work in the Turkish Case? The experience of manufacturing sector after 1980. AIEL XXI National Conference of Labour Economics, Udine, Italy. CR - Magee, S. P. (1973). Currency contracts, pass-through, and devaluation. BrookingsPapers on Economic Activity, 1973(1), 303-325. CR - Mantalos, P. (2000). A graphical investigation of the size and power of the Granger-causality tests in integrated-cointegrated VAR systems. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics andEconometrics, The MIT Press, 4(1), 1-18. Neyaptı, B., Taşkın, F., & Üngör, M. (2007). Has European customs union agreement really affected Turkey' strade?. Applied Economics, 39(16), 2121-2132. CR - Nicita, A. (2013). Exchange rates, international trade and trade policies. Policy issues in International trade and commodities study series, UNCTAD, No. 56, 135, 1-14. CR - Pesaran, M. H.,Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Boundstesting approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. CR - Rodrik, D. (2007). The real exchange rate and economic growth: theory and evidence. Harvard University Cambridge, MA 02138. CR - Utkulu, U.,& Seymen, D. (2004). Trade and competitiveness between Turkey and the EU: time series evidence (No. 2004/8). Discussion Paper, Turkish Economic Association. CR - Vergil, H. (2002). Exchange Rate Volatility in Turkey and Its Effect on Trade Flows. Journal of Economic & Social Research, 4(1). CR - Yazici, M.,&Islam, M. Q. (2014). Exchange rate and bilateral trade balance of Turkey with EU (15) Countries. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 3(3), 341-356. CR - FRED (2017). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCRETT01TRQ661N CR - IMF-IFS (2017). http://data.imf.org/?sk=9D6028D4-F14A-464C-A2F2-59B2CD424B85 CR - TÜİK (2017). https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/secilmisgostergeler/tabloOlustur.do# UR - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ksuiibf/issue//372999 L1 - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/395717 ER -