TY  - JOUR
TT  - Şehirlerarası yol ağlarında bitümlü sıcak karışım kaplamalar için üstyapı performans tahmin modeli geliştirilmesi
AU  - Kırbaş, Ufuk
AU  - Karaşahin, Mustafa
AU  - Ünal, Emine Nazan
AU  - Komut, Muhammet
AU  - Demir, Birol
AU  - Öcal, Kıvılcım
PY  - 2017
DA  - December
JF  - Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi
PB  - Pamukkale Üniversitesi
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2147-5881
SP  - 718
EP  - 725
VL  - 23
IS  - 6
KW  - Flexible pavement
KW  - Deterioration model
KW  - Performance prediction
KW  - PCI
KW  - IRI
N2  - Önemlibir altyapı yatırımı olan bitümlü sıcak karışım (BSK) üstyapılarınbozulmalarının doğru tahmin edilmesi, bakım ve onarım için ayrılan bütçenindoğru olarak belirlenmesinde vazgeçilmez bir unsurdur. Çalışmada, KarayollarıGenel Müdürlüğünün (KGM) sorumluluğunda bulunan devlet yolu ve il yolustatüsündeki BSK kaplamalı yollarda, gelecek yıllara ait performans tahminiyapabilen bir üstyapı performans tahmin modeli geliştirilmiştir. Üstyapılarınperformans göstergesi olarak uluslararası düzgünsüzlük indeksi (IRI)kullanılmıştır. KGM tarafından yapım yılı bilinen yollarda mevcut üstyapıbozulma bilgileri kullanılarak PAVER sistemi yardımıyla kesimlerin üstyapıdurum indeksi (PCI) bilgileri elde edilmiştir. Kesimlerin PCI ve yaşlarınabağlı olarak deterministik regresyon modeli tekniği kullanılarak tahmin modelioluşturulmuştur. Sonrasında, aynı yol kesimlerinde PCI ve IRI arasındakimatematiksel ilişki ortaya konmuştur. Elde edilen bu matematiksel ilişki oluşturulangelecek tahmin modeline entegre edilerek, ölçülen IRI değeri ve performansıtahmin edilecek yıl bağımsız değişkenlerine bağlı olarak üstyapıların gelecekyıllara ait IRI değerlerini belirleyen bir tahmin modeli elde edilmiştir. IRIbozulma tahmin modelinin doğruluğu, modelleme çalışmalarında hiçbir şekildekullanılmayan veri setleri ile kontrol edilmiştir.
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UR  - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/pajes/issue//379426
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/405228
ER  -