TY  - JOUR
T1  - Investment Risk Evaluation of Siirt Madenköy Copper Mine in Turkey
AU  - Karaabat Varol, Merve
AU  - Uğur, İBRAHİM
AU  - Erçelebi, SELAMET G.
PY  - 2019
DA  - March
Y2  - 2019
DO  - 10.30516/bilgesci.487621
JF  - Bilge International Journal of Science and Technology Research
JO  - bilgesci
PB  - Kutbilge Akademisyenler Derneği
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2651-401X
SP  - 39
EP  - 50
VL  - 3
IS  - 1
LA  - en
AB  - Mining investments are high-risky investments due to mineral deposit uncertainties. Therefore,before any investment decision is given, an economic assessment should be performed and several risksituations must be taken into consideration. In this study, it was examined whether or not an investmentmade in a copper mine in Siirt, Turkey is economical by using Sensitivity Analysis and Monte CarloSimulation. The aim of this study is to construct cash flows for this copper mine with an average grade of2.35% Cu and 39.821.000 tons reserve throughout 25 years for two different situations. In the first case, itwas assumed that the total investment amount will be covered by 100% equity, while in the second case thetotal investment amount was assumed to be 30% equity and 70% bank loan. In the Sensitivity Analysis,mineral processing and operating costs, the average grades and ore concentrate sale prices were evaluatedover optimistic and pessimistic forecasts. Changes in the net present value and internal rate of return wereexamined without risk. Monte Carlo Simulation was run by using computer software program @Risk 6.0and applied to investment criteria for this copper mine field. The analysis of the output modelling situationswhere decisions were made under uncertainty gave reliable results by quantifying the degree of risk for thismining project. Consequently, if the investment was provided with 100% equity, NPV was 136.369.150,7 $and IRR was 32% with a discount rate of 15%, probably as likely to harm the project was about 0,018. Ifthe investment was provided with 30% equity, NPV was 111.742.245,4 $, IRR was 28% with a discountrate of 15%, probably as likely to harm the project was about 0,05. In accordance with the results, theinvestment can be said to be a profitable project in both assumptions.
KW  - Mining Investment
KW  - Uncertainty
KW  - Risk Analysis
KW  - Monte Carlo Simulation Method
KW  - Sensitivity Analysis
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UR  - https://doi.org/10.30516/bilgesci.487621
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/683639
ER  -