TY - JOUR T1 - DIVORCE PREDICTION USING CORRELATION BASED FEATURE SELECTION AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS AU - Yöntem, Mustafa Kemal AU - Adem, Kemal AU - İlhan, Tahsin AU - Kılıçarslan, Serhat PY - 2019 DA - June JF - Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi PB - Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi WT - DergiPark SN - 2149-3871 SP - 259 EP - 273 VL - 9 IS - 1 LA - tr AB - Within the scope of this research,the divorce prediction was carried out by using the Divorce Predictors Scale(DPS) on the basis of Gottman couplestherapy. Of the participants, 84 (49%) were divorced and 86 (51%) were marriedcouples. Participants completed the “PersonalInformation Form” and “Divorce Predictors Scale”. In this study, the success ofDPS, was investigated using Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network and C4.5Decision tree algorithms. In addition, the study also aims to find the mostsignificant features/items in the Divorce Predictors Scale that affect thedivorce. The most effective 6features and their values of significance obtained by applying thecorrelation-based feature selection method on the divorce data set. When we look at these features, they arerelated to creating a common meaning and failed attempts to repair, love mapand negative conflict behaviors. When the direct classification methods were applied to the divorce dataset, the highest success rate was 98.23% obtained with the RBF neural network.After selecting the most effective 6 features using the correlation-basedfeature selection method on the same data set, the highest accuracy rateobtained was 98.82% with ANN. According to the results, DPS can predictdivorce. Family counselors and family therapists can use this scale forcontribute to the preparation of case formulation and intervention plan. Alsoit can be said that the divorce predictors in the Gottman couples therapy wereconfirmed in the Turkish sampling. KW - Data mining KW - artificial neural networks KW - divorce KW - divorce prediction CR - Babcock, J.C., Gottman, J., Ryan, K. & Gottman, J. (2013). A component analysis of a brief psycho‐educational couples' workshop: one‐year follow‐up results. Journal of Family Therapy 35(3): 252-280. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-6427.12017 CR - Baca-García, E., et al. (2006). Using data mining to explore complex clinical decisions: a study of hospitalization after a suicide attempt. Journal of Clinical Psychiatry, 67(7): 1124-1132. http://dx.doi.org/10.4088/JCP.v67n0716 CR - Bae, S. M., Lee, S. H., Park, Y. M., Hyun, M. H., & Yoon, H. (2010). Predictive factors of social functioning in patients with schizophrenia: exploration for the best combination of variables using data mining. Psychiatry investigation, 7(2): 93-101. https://doi.org/10.4306/pi.2010.7.2.93 CR - Barnacle, R. ES, & Abbott, D. A. (2009). The development and evaluation of a Gottman-based premarital education program: A pilot study. Journal of Couple & Relationship Therapy; 8(1): 64-82. https://doi.org/10.1080/15332690802626734 CR - Çelik, E., Atalay, M. & Bayer, H. (2014). Yapay Sinir Ağları ve Destek Vektör Makineleri ile Deprem Tahmininde Sismik Darbelerin Kullanılması. IEEE 22nd Signal Processing and Communications Applications Conferance (SIU), 730-733. CR - Eriksson, R., Werge, T., Jensen, L. J., & Brunak, S. (2014). Dose-specific adverse drug reaction identification in electronic patient records: temporal data mining in an inpatient psychiatric population. Drug safety, 37(4): 237-247. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40264-014-0158-7 CR - Ertunc, H. M., Ocak, H. & Aliustaoglu, C. (2013). ANN-and ANFIS-based multi-staged decision algorithm for the detection and diagnosis of bearing faults. Neural Computing and Applications, 22(1): 435-446. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-012-0912-7 CR - Fayyad, U. M., Piatetsky-Shapiro, G., Smyth, P. & Uthurusamy, R. (1996). Advances in knowledge discovery and data mining. American Association for Artificial Intelligence Menlo Park, CA, USA. CR - Gottman, J. M. (1999). The marriage clinic: A scientifically-based marital therapy. WW Norton & Company. CR - Gottman, J. M. (2014). What predicts divorce? The relationship between marital processes and marital outcomes. Psychology Press. CR - Gottman, J. M. & Gottman, J.S. (2012). Çiftler arasında köprüyü inşa etmek: Gottman çift terapisi eğitimi 1. düzey kitabı, [Level 1 clinical training. Gottman Method Couples Therapy. Bringing to couple chasm.] İstanbul, Psikoloji İstanbul.. CR - Gottman, J. ve Silver, N. (2014). Aşk nasıl sürdürülür. Aşk laboratuarından sırlar. (trans. Gül, S.S.) [What make love last. How to build trust and avoid betrayal. 2012]. İstanbul, Varlık Yayınları,.3. CR - Gottman, J. & Silver, N. (2015). Evliliği sürdürmenin yedi ilkesi.(trans. Gül, S.S.). [The seven principles for making marriage work. 1999] İstanbul, Varlık Yayınları. CR - Hall, M. (1999). Correlation-Based Feature Selection for Machine Learning. Phd Thesis, Department Of Computer Science, Waikato University, New Zealand, 26-28. CR - Hall, M. A. & Smith, L. A. (1998). Practical feature subset selection for machine learning. In Computer science’98 proceedings of the 21st Australasian computer science conference ACSC, 98: 181-191. CR - Han, J., Kamber, M. & Pei, J. (2006). Data mining: concepts and techniques. The Morgan Kaufmann Series İn Data Management Systems. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, 230-240. CR - Holman, T. B. & Jarvis, M. O. (2003). Hostile, volatile, avoiding, and validating couple‐conflict types: An investigation of Gottman's couple‐conflict types. Personal Relationships; 10(2): 267-282. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1475-6811.00049 CR - Karaatlı, M., Helvacıoğlu, Ö. C., Ömürbek, N. & Tokgöz, G. (2012). Yapay Sinir Ağları Yöntemi İle Otomobil Satış Tahmini. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 8(17): 87-100. http://dx.doi.org/10.11122/ijmeb.2012.8.17.290 CR - Karahan, M. (2015). Turizm talebinin Yapay Sinir Ağları yöntemiyle tahmin edilmesi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 2015; 20(2): 195-209. CR - Kaynar, O., Aydın, Z. & Görmez, Y. (2017). Sentiment Analizinde Öznitelik Düşürme Yöntemlerinin Oto Kodlayıcılı Derin Öğrenme Makinaları ile Karşılaştırılması. Bilişim Teknolojileri Dergisi, 10(3): 319-326. http://dx.doi.org/10.17671/gazibtd.331046 CR - Kaynar, O., Taştan, S. & Demirkoparan, F. (2011). Yapay sinir ağları ile doğalgaz tüketim tahmini. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 25. CR - Nguyên, X., Chaskalovis, J., Rakotonanahary, D. & Fleury, B. (2010). Insomnia symptoms and CPAP compliance in OSAS patients: A descriptive study using Data Mining methods. Sleep medicine 11(8): 777-784. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sleep.2010.04.008 CR - Qinghua, J. (2016). Data Mining and Management System Design and Application for College Student Mental Health. Intelligent Transportation, Big Data & Smart City (ICITBS), 2016 International Conference on. IEEE: 410-413. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ICITBS.2016.96 CR - Rosenthal, D. A., Dalton, J. A., & Gervey, R. (2007). Analyzing vocational outcomes of individuals with psychiatric disabilities who received state vocational rehabilitation services: A data mining approach. International Journal of Social Psychiatry , 53(4): 357-368. https://doi.org/10.1177/0020764006074555 CR - Schalkoff, R. J. (1997). Artificial neural networks (Vol. 1). New York: McGraw-Hill. CR - Song, Q. (2010). The comparison and analysis of classification methods for psychological assessment data. Information Science and Engineering (ICISE), 2010 2nd International Conference on. IEEE. 4133-4135. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ICISE.2010.5690602 CR - Shapiro, A. & Gottman, J. (2005). Effects on marriage of a psycho-communicative-educational intervention with couples undergoing the transition to parenthood, evaluation at 1-year post intervention. Journal Of Family Communication; 5(1): 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327698jfc0501_1 CR - Shapiro, A. F., Nahm, E. Y., Gottman, J. M., & Content, K. (2011). Bringing baby home together: Examining the impact of a couple‐focused intervention on the dynamics within family play. American Journal of Orthopsychiatry; 81(3): 337. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1939-0025.2011.01102.x CR - Uğur, A. & Kınacı, A. C. (2006). Yapay zeka teknikleri ve yapay sinir ağları kullanılarak web sayfalarının sınıflandırılması. XI. Türkiye'de İnternet Konferansı (inet-tr'06), 1-4. CR - Yöntem, M.K. & İlhan, T.(2018). Boşanma göstergeleri ölçeği: güvenirlik ve geçerlik çalışması. X. Uluslararası Eğitim Araştırmaları Kongres. Nevsehir, Turkey .9. CR - Yöntem, M.K. & İlhan, T. (2018). Boşanma göstergeleri ölçeğinin geliştirilmesi. [Development of the divorce predictors scale]. Sosyal Polika Çalışmaları Dergisi. 41. 10. Yöntem, M. K., Adem, K., İlhan, T., & Kılıçarslan, S. (2018). Çok Katmanlı Algılayıcı Sinir Ağı ve C4. 5 Karar ağacı algoritmaları ile Boşanma Tahmini. International Congress on Politic, Economic and Social Studies (ICPESS) 2018:4. UR - http://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/nevsosbilen/issue//549416 L1 - http://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/748448 ER -