TY - JOUR T1 - BULANIK PROGRAMLAMAYLA PORTFÖY OPTİMİZASYONU ÜZERİNE BİR UYGULAMA TT - AN APPLICATION ON PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION WITH FUZZY PROGRAMMING AU - Avşarlıgil, Nuri PY - 2020 DA - January Y2 - 2019 DO - 10.30794/pausbed.554863 JF - Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi JO - PAUSBED PB - Pamukkale Üniversitesi WT - DergiPark SN - 1308-2922 SP - 197 EP - 209 IS - 38 LA - tr AB - Bu çalışmanın amacı, finansal yatırımcılar içinportföy tercihi aşamasında bulanık modellerin kullanılabilirliğiniaraştırmaktır. Bu amaçla, yatırımcıların ellerinde bulunan finansal kaynaklarıyatırıma dönüştürmek için kullanacakları portföylerin oluşturulmasında, geçmişfiyat değişimlerinden yararlanılarak, Bulanık Verdegay yöntemi aracılığıylayüksek getiri elde etmeye çalışılacaktır.Borsa İstanbul’da işlem gören, 10 adet endeks verisi kullanılarak,optimal portföy kararı verilmeye çalışılmıştır. Endekslerin geçmiş değerlerikullanılarak, ortalama getiri ve maksimum getiri eşik değerleri belirlenmiştir.Yatırımcılar tarafından bir yatırım kararı alınırken, literatürde portföyseçimi için kullanılan optimizasyon tekniklerinden bir tanesi olan Verdegaybulanık modeli, karma stratejiler arasından amaç fonksiyonuna göre optimalağırlıklandırma işlemi yapmaktadır. Yapılan ağırlıklandırma işlemi sonrası,çalışmanın son bölümünde ulaşılacak sonucun başarısı geriye dönük testleraracılığıyla tartışılmıştır. KW - Optimal Portföy KW - Bulanık Programlama KW - Verdegay Modeli N2 - The purpose of this study is to investigate theavailability of fuzzy models in the portfolio preference phase for financialinvestors. For this purpose, in establishing the portfolios that investors willuse to invest in the financial resources of the investors, they will try toobtain high returns through the Fuzzy Verdegay method, using past pricechanges. An optimal portfolio decision was made by using 10 index data tradedin Borsa Istanbul. The average return and maximum return thresholds aredetermined using the historical values of the Indices. When an investmentdecision is taken by investors, the Verdegay fuzzy model, which is one of theoptimization techniques used for portfolio selection in the literature,performs optimal weighting according to the objective function among the mixedstrategies. After the weighting process, the success of the result to bereached in the last part of the study was discussed through retrospectivetests. CR - Ammar, Elsaid El (2008), “On solutions of fuzzy random multiobjective quadratic programming with applications in portfolio problem” Information Sciences,178, 468–484. CR - Ammar, Elsaid El, Khalifa, Hamdeen Abdulwahid (2003), “Fuzzy portfolio optimization: A quadratic programming approach”, Chaos, Solutions & Fractals, 18, 1045–1054 CR - Aslantaş, Cem (2008), Portföy yönetiminde fuzzy yaklaşımı, Marmara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, İstanbul, Türkiye CR - Atan, Sibel (2012), “0-1 Tamsayılı Programlama İle Portföy Seçim Modeli ve İmkb–30 Endeksinde Bir Uygulama”, e-Journal of New World Sciences Academy, Volume: 7, Number: 2, 74-86 CR - Bertsimas, Dimitris, Pachamanova, Dessislava (2008), “Robust multi period portfolio management in the presence of transaction costs”, Computers and Operations Research, 35, 3–17 CR - Chen, Zhiping (2005), “Multiperiod consumption and portfolio decisions under the multivariate GARCH model with transaction costs and CVaR-based risk control”, ORSpectr,27, pp. 603–632 CR - Elton, Edwin, Gruber, Matthias (1997), “Modern Portfolio Theory, 1959 to date”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 21, pp: 1743 – 1759 CR - Ertuğrul, İrfan, Tuş, Ayşegül (2007), “Interactive fuzzy linear programming and an application at a textile firm”, Fuzzy Optimal Decision Making, 6(1) CR - Fang, Ling Lu, Ji Xian Xiao, Xin Chun Wang (2010), “A new algorithm for solving fuzzy linear programming”, 2010 Second International Conference on Computer Modeling and Simulation, Çin, 125-127 CR - Geyer, Alois, Hanke, Michael , Weissensteiner, Alex (2009), “A stochastic programming approach for multiperiod portfolio optimization”, Computer Management Science, V:6, 187–208 CR - Gupta, Pankaj, Mehlawat, Mukesh Kumar,Saxena Anand (2008), “Asset portfolio optimization using fuzzy mathematical programming”, Information Sciences, 178, 1734–1755 CR - Gülgör, Gonca (2010), “İmkb 30 endeksinde klasik ve bulanık analitik hiyerarşi süreci ile portföy seçimi ve performanslarının karşılaştırılması”, Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Eskişehir, Türkiye CR - Hansen, Bjerna (1996), “Fuzzy Logic and Linear Programming Find Optimal Solutions for Meteorological Problems”, Term Paper for Fuzzy Coursa at Technical University of Nova Scotia CR - Ince, Hüseyin, Trafalis, Theodore B. (2006), “Kernel methods for short-term portfolio management”, Expert Systems with Applications, 30, 535–542 CR - Inuiguchi, Masahiro, Sakawa, Masatoshi, (1998), “Robust optimization under softness in a fuzzy linear programming problem”, International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 21-34 CR - Karadayı, Turgay (2007), Bulanık doğrusal programlama kullanılarak yapısal sistemlerin boyutlandırılması, Fırat Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, yüksek lisans tezi CR - Keskenler, Mustafa Furkan,” Bulanık Mantığın Tarihi Gelişimi”, Takvim-i Vekayi, Cilt: 5 No: 1 2017, Sayfa: 1-10 CR - Kocadağlı, Ozan, Keskin, Rıdvan (2015), “A novel portfolio selection model based on fuzzy goal programming with different im portance and priorities”, Expert Systems with Applications 42/20,6898-6912 CR - Konno, Hiroshi, Yamazaki, Hiroaki (1991), “Mean-absolute deviation portfolio optimization model and its applications to Tokyo stock market”, Management Science, 37, 519–531 CR - Lai, Young-Jou, Hwang, Ching-Lai (1992a), Fuzzy Mathematical Programming: Methods And Application,. Berlin: Springer-Verlag CR - Lai, Young-Jou, Hwang, Ching-Lai (1992b), “A new approach to some possibilistic linear programming problem”, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 49, 121-133 CR - Li, Duan, Wan-Lung Ng (2000), “Optimal dynamic portfolio selection: multiperiod mean–variance formulation” Mathematical Finance, 10/3, 387–406 CR - Momen, Omid , Esfahanipour, Akbar, Seifi, Abbas (2017), “A robust behavioral portfolio selection: model with investor attitudes and biases”, Operational Research, 2/1–20 CR - Negoita, Constantin Virgil (1981), Fuzzy systems, Tunbridge Wells, Abacus Pres CR - Özkan, Şule (2005), Lineer Programlama, Nobel Yayın Dağıtım, 1. Basım, Ankara CR - Pelitli, Dilek (2007), Portföy analizinde bulanık mantık yaklaşımı ve uygulama örneği, Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Denizli, Türkiye CR - Rubio, Angel, Jose, Bermúdez, Ernesto, Vercher (2007), “Comparative Analysis Of Forecasting Portfolio Returns Using Soft Computing Technologies”, Advances in Intelligent Systems Research, vol.89, pp.617–623. CR - Sadjadi, Seyed-Jafar, Seyedhosseini, Seyed Muhammad, Hassanlou, Khadijeh (2011) “Fuzzy multi period portfolio selection with different rates for borrowing and lending”, Applied Soft Computing, 11, 3821– 3826 CR - Song, Qiang, Brad Chissom (1993), “Forecasting enrollments with fuzzy time series – part I”, Fuzzy Sets Systems, 54/1–9 CR - Song, Qiang, Brad Chissom (1994),”Forecasting enrollments with fuzzy time series – part II”, Fuzzy Sets Systems, 62, 1–8 CR - Sun, Wei (2016), “Portfolio selection strategies with investor psychology and behavior under fuzzy random environment”, 8th International Symposium on Computational Intelligence and Design (ISCID), 208–211 CR - Tiryaki, Fatma, Ahlatcioglu, Beyza (2009), “Fuzzy portfolio selection using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process”, Information Sciences, 179, 53–69 CR - Tsaur, Ruey-Chyn (2013), “Fuzzy portfolio model with different investor risk attitudes”, European Journal of Operational Research, 227/2, 385–390 CR - Tüfekçi, Ömer Kürşad, Avşarlıgil Nuri, “Optimal Portföy Kuramı ve Oyun Teorisi Yaklaşımı: BIST’ta Bir İnceleme”, Journal of Strategic Research in Social Science, Cilt:2, Sayı:4, 2016, 41-64 CR - Verdegay, Jose Luis (1984), "A dual approach to solve the fuzzy linear programming problem", Fuzzy Sets and Systems 14, 131-141 CR - Wang, Dingwei (1997),“An Inexact Approach For Linear Programming Problems With Fuzzy Objective And Resources”, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 89(1), 61-68 CR - Wang, Zhen, Liu, Sanyang (2013),”Multi-period mean–variance portfolio selection with fixed and proportional transaction costs”, Journal of Industrial & Management Optimization, 9/3, 643–657 CR - Werners, Brigitte (1987), “An interactive fuzzy programming system”, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol. 23, 131-147 CR - Zadeh, Lotfi (1999), “Fuzzy sets as a basis for a theory of possibility”, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 100, 9–34 CR - Zhang, Wei-Guo, Liu, Yong-Jun, Xu, Wei-Jun (2012), “A possibilistic mean semivariance-entropy model for multi-period portfolio selection with transaction costs”, European Journal of Operational Research,222/2, 341–349 CR - Zhou, Jiandong, Xiang Li, Witold Pedrycz (2016), “Mean-semi-entropy models of fuzzy portfolio selection”, IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 99, 1-1 CR - Zhou, Rongxi , Yang, Zebin , Yu, Mei, Ralescu, Dan (2015), “A portfolio optimization model based on information entropy and fuzzy time series”, Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making 14/381–397 CR - Zhu, Shu-Shang, Li, Duan, Wang, Shou-Yang (2004),”Risk control over bankruptcy in dynamic portfolio selection: A generalized mean–variance formulation”, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 49/3, 447–457 CR - Zımmermann, Hans-Jürgen (1987), Fuzzy Sets, Decision Making, And Expert Systems , Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston CR - Zimmermann, Hans-Jürgen (1974),”Optimization in fuzzy environment”, XXI International TIMS and 46th ORSA Conference, San Juan, Puerto Rico UR - https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.554863 L1 - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/948945 ER -