TY  - JOUR
T1  - COMPARISON OF ATA METHOD AND CROSTON BASED METHODS ON FORECASTING OF INTERMITTENT DEMAND
TT  - KESİKLİ TALEPLERİN TAHMİNLENMESİNDE ATA METOT VE CROSTON TEMELLİ METOTLARIN KARŞILAŞTIRILMASI
AU  - Ekiz Yilmaz, Tugce
AU  - Yapar, Güçkan
AU  - Yavuz, İdil
PY  - 2019
DA  - December
DO  - 10.22531/muglajsci.572444
JF  - Mugla Journal of Science and Technology
JO  - MJST
PB  - Muğla Sıtkı Koçman Üniversitesi
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2149-3596
SP  - 49
EP  - 55
VL  - 5
IS  - 2
LA  - en
AB  - Intermittent demandforecasting is crucial for firms and commercial activities. Recently, manyresearchers have focused on forecasting methods for intermittent demand andproposed various forecasting techniques. The most prominent methods among theseproposed techniques are the Croston method, which is based on exponentialsmoothing, and its two popular variations: SBA (Syntetos-Boylan Approximation),SBJ (Shale-Boylan-Johnston Approximation). Croston method is widely used inforecasting of intermittent demand and inventory (stock) control. Since thesedemands usually include zero values, using the ground breaking method developedby Croston in this data becomes inevitable. Nevertheless, there are someshortcomings to this method such as producing biased forecasts and for thisreason its variations have been proposed. ATA method is a recently developedforecasting method which is an alternative to exponential smoothing. In thispaper we propose a modification of ATA method that can be used for forecastingof intermittent demand. We will compare the results of the proposed approach tothose of Croston and other forecasting methods used for intermittent demandforecasting.
KW  - Exponential smoothing
KW  - Demand forecasting
KW  - Time series
KW  - Croston method
KW  - Intermittent demand
KW  - Inventory control
N2  - Kesikli talep tahmini, şirketler ve ticarifaaliyetler için çok önemlidir. Son zamanlarda, birçok araştırmacı kesiklitalep için tahmin yöntemlerine odaklandı ve çeşitli tahmin teknikleriönerdiler. Bu önerilen teknikler arasında öne çıkan yöntemler, üsseldüzleştirmeye dayanan Croston yöntemi ve bu yöntemin iki türevi olan SBA(Syntetos-Boylan Yaklaşımı) ve SBJ (Shale-Boylan-Johnston Yaklaşımı)metotlarıdır.e Croston yöntemi, kesikli talep ve envanter (stok) kontrolününtahmininde yaygın olarak kullanılmaktadır. Bu talepler genellikle sıfırdeğerini içerdiğinden, bu verilerde Croston tarafından geliştirilen öne çıkanmetodun kullanılması kaçınılmaz hale gelir. Bununla birlikte; bu yöntemin,yanlı tahminler üretmek gibi bazı eksiklikleri vardır ve bu sebeple türevleriönerilmiştir. ATA metot, üssel düzleştirmeye alternatif olarak yenigeliştirilen bir tahmin metodudur. Bu çalışmada, kesikli talebin tahminedilmesi için bir ATA yönteminin bir modifikasyonunu öneriyoruz. Önerilen yaklaşımınsonuçlarını, Croston ve kesikli talep tahmini için kullanılan diğer tahminyöntemleriyle karşılaştıracağız.
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UR  - https://doi.org/10.22531/muglajsci.572444
L1  - http://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/817379
ER  -