@article{article_643824, title={Modelling of the milk supplied to the industry in Turkey through Box-Jenkins and Winters’ Exponential Smoothing methods}, journal={Journal of Turkish Veterinary Medical Society}, volume={91}, pages={49–60}, year={2020}, DOI={10.33188/vetheder.643824}, author={Akın, Ahmet Cumhur and Tekindal, Mustafa Agah and Arıkan, Mehmet Saltuk and Çevrimli, Mustafa Bahadır}, keywords={Türkiye,Çiğ süt,Zaman serisi,Box-Jenkins yöntemi,Winter’s Üstel Düzgünleştirme Yöntemi}, abstract={<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;"> <span style="font-size:12px;font-family:’Helvetica Neue’;color:rgb(51,51,51);">Analysis of the
quantity of cow milk supplied to the industry in Turkey is one of the methods
that could provide stakeholders with the most accurate results from the
perspective of raw milk projections and the interpretation of the sector.
Therefore, it is important that the amount of milk supplied to the industry is
used instead of the total amount of milk produced in the projections of the
sector. The present study is intended to model the time series data of the
amount of milk supplied to the dairy industry in Turkey between 2013/01 and
2018/03 using Box-Jenkins and Winters’ Exponential Smoothing methods, and to
analyse the production of milk and the future of the dairy industry in Turkey
utilising the forecasts obtained from such models. The results of the analyses
indicate that the Winters’ Exponential Smoothing model gives more consistent
results than the Box-Jenkins model with respect to the future forecast value
and decision-making criterion of the amount of milk supplied to the industry. </span> <span style="font-family:’Times New Roman’, serif;"> </span> </p> <p> </p>}, number={1}, publisher={Veteriner Hekimler Derneği}