TY  - JOUR
T1  - Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Finansal Çevrimler ve İş Çevrimleri: Granger Nedensellik Testi
TT  - Financial and Business Cycles for Turkish Economy: Granger Causality Test
AU  - Değneli, Aycan Pervin
PY  - 2020
DA  - June
DO  - 10.34232/pjess.702956
JF  - Pamukkale Journal of Eurasian Socioeconomic Studies
JO  - pjess
PB  - Pamukkale Üniversitesi
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2148-8703
SP  - 18
EP  - 38
VL  - 7
IS  - 1
LA  - tr
AB  - Dünya ekonomisi oldukça sıkı bir entegrasyonsürecine girmiştir. Ekonomide meydana gelen dalgalanmaların anlaşılması,finansal piyasalar ve ekonominin bütünü açısından oldukça önemlidir. Buçalışmanın amacı Türkiye ekonomisinde iş çevrimleri ve finansal çevrimlerarasındaki ilişkinin analiz edilmesidir. Bunun için 2003:1 – 2015:12 dönemineait aylık veriler kullanılarak Türkiye ekonomisinde iş çevrimleri ve finansalçevrimler arasındaki etkileşimler Granger Nedensellik Testi ile saptanmayaçalışılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre reel kredi hacmi endeksi ve konutfiyatları endeksinin makroekonomik değişkenler üzerinde dalgalanmalara sebepolan açıklayıcı değişken olarak öne çıktığı görülmektedir. Çalışmadan eldeedilen diğer bir sonuç ise finansal değişkenlerin birbirleri arasındakiilişkiler ile ilgilidir. Buna göre konut fiyatları endeksi ve reel kredi hacmiendeksi arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır.Makroekonomik değişkenler ve finansal değişkenler arasındaki bu nedensellikilişkisi göz önünde bulundurulduğunda iş çevrimleri ve finansal çevrimlerüzerine yapılacak çalışmalarda reel kredi hacmi endeksi ve konut fiyatlarıendeksinin ekonomideki iş çevrimlerinin analiz edilmesinde açıklayıcı değişkenolarak kullanılabileceği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
KW  - Finansal Çevrimler
KW  - İş Çevrimleri
KW  - Türkiye Ekonomisi
KW  - Granger Nedensellik Testi
N2  - The world economyhas moved towards closer integration. Understanding the fluctuations that occurin the economy is important for financial markets and whole of the economy. Theaim of this study is to analyse the interactions of financial cycles andbusiness cycles for Turkish economy. In able to confirm this by using monthlydata between 2003:1 – 2015:12 the interactions of financial cycles and businesscycles for Turkish economy have analysed with Granger Causality Test. Accordingto the results, real credit volume index and house price index stand out as theexplanatory variable causing fluctuations on macroeconomic variables. Anotherresult obtained from the study is about the relationships between financialvariables. Accordingly, there is a bidirectional causality relationship betweenthe house price index and the real credit volume index. Considering thiscausality relationship between macroeconomic and financial variables, it isconcluded that the real credit volume index and house price index can be usedas a descriptive variable in the analysis of business cycles in the economy.
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UR  - https://doi.org/10.34232/pjess.702956
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/1164396
ER  -