TY - JOUR T1 - FED VE TCMB Politika Kararları Arasındaki Stratejik Etkileşimin Testi: Toda-Yamamoto Yaklaşımı TT - Testing the Strategic Interaction Between FED and CBRT Policy Decisions: Toda-Yamamoto Approach AU - Tetik, Metin AU - Kara, Görkem PY - 2020 DA - November DO - 10.26650/ekoist.2020.32.0003 JF - EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics PB - İstanbul Üniversitesi WT - DergiPark SN - 2651-396X SP - 35 EP - 47 IS - 32 LA - tr AB - BuçalışmaFederalRezervBankası(FED)veTürkiyeCumhuriyetMerkezBankası(TCMB)politikakararlarıarasındastratejikbiretkileşimdurumunuincelemeüzerinekurulmuştur.Buçerçevede,çalışmaTCMB’ninuyguladığıpolitikaların,FED’inpolitikakararlarındanetkilenipetkilenmediğinioyunteorikbirlider-takipçiilişkisiüzerindenanalizetmektedir.Bununiçin,FEDveTCMBarasındakietkileşimoyunteorikolarakmodellenmiştir.Modeldeönesürülenhipotezler2006M012020M12dönemleriiçinToda-Yamamotoyaklaşımınıkullanılaraktestedilmiştir.Bulgular,oyunteorikolarakFED’inliderolduğuveFEDveTCMBarasındabirlider-takipçidurumunortayaçıktığınıgöstermektedir. KW - Para politikası kararları KW - Oyun teorisi KW - Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi N2 - ThisstudyisbasedonanalyzingastrategicinteractionsituationbetweenFederalReserveBank(FED)andCentralBankoftheRepublicofTurkey(CBRT)policydecisions.Inthiscontext,ourstudyanalyzeswhetherthepoliciesimplementedbytheCBRTareaffectedbythepolicydecisionsoftheFEDthroughatheoreticalleader-followerrelationship.Forthis,theinteractiongamebetweenFEDandCBRTistheoreticallymodeled.ThehypothesesproposedinthemodelweretestedusingtheToda-Yamamotoapproachforthe2006M01-2020M12periods.FindingsshowthatthegameistheoreticallytheleaderoftheFEDandaleader-followersituationarisesbetweentheFEDandtheCB CR - Belke, A. (2002). Does the ECB Follow the FED? (No. 211/2002). Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. CR - Belke, A., & Gros, D. (2005). Asymmetries in transatlantic monetary policy‐making: Does the ECB follow the fed? JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, 43(5), 921–946. CR - Castro, V. (2011). The impact of the European Union fiscal rules on economic growth. Journal of Macroeconomics, 33(2), 313–326. CR - Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 251–276. CR - Garcia-Cervero, S. (2002). Is the Fed really leading the way. Deutsche Bank Europe Weekly, 22, 8-10. CR - Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 424–438. CR - Ioannidis, C., & Napolitano, O. (2003). Optimal Monetary Policy and the Asset Market: A Noncooperative Game. CR - Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C., Schmidt, P. and Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of Econometrics, 54(1), 159–178. CR - Nelson, C. R., & Plosser, C. R. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series: some evidence and implications. Journal of monetary economics, 10(2), 139–162. CR - Martin, C., & Milas, C. (2013). Financial crises and monetary policy: Evidence from the UK. Journal of Financial Stability, 9(4), 654–661. CR - Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. CR - Rambaldi, A. N., & Doran, H. E. (1996). Testing for granger non-casuality in cointegrated systems made easy. Department of Econometrics, University of New England. CR - Tapşın, G., & Karabulut, A. T. (2013). Reel döviz Kuru, ithalat ve ihracat arasındaki nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Akdeniz Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 13(26), 189–204 Ulrich, K. (2003): A Comparison Between the Fed and the ECB: Taylor Rules, ZEW Discussion Paper No. 03-19, Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim. CR - Toda, H. Y., & Phillips, P. C. (1993). Vector autoregressions and causality. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1367–1393. CR - Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of econometrics, 66(1-2), 225–250. UR - https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2020.32.0003 L1 - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/1416324 ER -