@article{article_759302, title={The Prediction of Brent Crude Oil Trend Using LSTM and Facebook Prophet}, journal={Avrupa Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi}, pages={1–9}, year={2020}, DOI={10.31590/ejosat.759302}, author={Güleryüz, Didem and Özden, Erdemalp}, keywords={Brent Petrol, Tahmin Etme, Derin Öğrenme, LSTM, Facebook Prophet}, abstract={Crude oil and petroleum products are among the critical inputs of industrial production as well as they are having an important role in logistics and transportation. Hence, sudden increases and decreases in oil prices cause particular problems in global economies and thus; they have a direct or indirect effect on economies. Furthermore, due to crises in developing economies, trade disputes between major economies, and the dynamic nature of the oil price effect on demand and supply for oil and petroleum products, and time to time volatility in the oil price are very severe. The uncertainty in oil prices can leave both consumers and producers with heavy potential losses. Due to this rapid variability, predicting oil prices has global importance. In this study, to increase the accuracy and stability, the Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Facebook’s Prophet (FBPr) were applied to foresee future tendencies in Brent oil prices considering their previous prices. A comparison of the two models made using the 32-year data set between June 1988 and June 2020 weekly for oil prices, and the model with the best fit was determined. The dataset was split into two sets which are training and test sets—the first twenty-five years used for the training set and the last seven years validating forecasting accuracy. The coefficient determination (R2) for the LSTM and FBPr models found as 0.92, 0.89 in the training stage, and 0.89, 0.62 in the testing stage, respectively. According to the results obtained, the LSTM model has superior results to predict the trend of oil prices.}, number={20}, publisher={Osman SAĞDIÇ}