Yıl 2020, Cilt 8 , Sayı 2, Sayfalar 235 - 255 2020-12-25

A Comparative Study on Modelling and Forecasting Tourism Revenues: The Case of Turkey

Murat ÇUHADAR [1]


Tourism revenues have important implications for tourism countries in terms of management of tourism-related policies. In order to accurately direct production planning, pricing, promotion and strategic marketing programs, labor and capital resources, accurate and reliable forecasts are needed. Forecasting the developments in tourism with scientific basis methods is an important guide for central and local public administration programs and tourism operators. When reviewing the literature, comparative studies on modeling and forecasting tourism revenues using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are limited and this paper aims to fill this gap. Based on the gap seen in the literature, the purpose of this study is to develop the optimal forecasting model that yields the highest accuracy when compared the forecast performances of three different methods namely Exponential Smoothing, Box-Jenkins and ANNs for forecasting Turkey’s tourism revenues. Forecasting performances of the models were measured by MAPE statistics. As a result of the analyses performed, it was found that ANN Model with [4:5:1] architecture was the best one among the all models applied in this study.
Tourism Revenues, Modelling, Forecasting, ANN
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Birincil Dil en
Konular Otelcilik, Konaklama, Spor ve Turizm
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Orcid: 0000-0003-0434-1550
Yazar: Murat ÇUHADAR (Sorumlu Yazar)
Kurum: SÜLEYMAN DEMİREL ÜNİVERSİTESİ, İKTİSADİ VE İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ
Ülke: Turkey


Tarihler

Başvuru Tarihi : 7 Temmuz 2020
Kabul Tarihi : 14 Ekim 2020
Yayımlanma Tarihi : 25 Aralık 2020

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { ahtr765394, journal = {Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research (AHTR)}, issn = {2147-9100}, eissn = {2148-7316}, address = {Akdeniz University, Tourism Faculty Dumlupınar Boulevard Post Code: 07058 Campus ANTALYA, TURKEY}, publisher = {Akdeniz Üniversitesi}, year = {2020}, volume = {8}, pages = {235 - 255}, doi = {10.30519/ahtr.765394}, title = {A Comparative Study on Modelling and Forecasting Tourism Revenues: The Case of Turkey}, key = {cite}, author = {Çuhadar, Murat} }
APA Çuhadar, M . (2020). A Comparative Study on Modelling and Forecasting Tourism Revenues: The Case of Turkey . Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research (AHTR) , 8 (2) , 235-255 . DOI: 10.30519/ahtr.765394
MLA Çuhadar, M . "A Comparative Study on Modelling and Forecasting Tourism Revenues: The Case of Turkey" . Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research (AHTR) 8 (2020 ): 235-255 <https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ahtr/issue/58625/765394>
Chicago Çuhadar, M . "A Comparative Study on Modelling and Forecasting Tourism Revenues: The Case of Turkey". Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research (AHTR) 8 (2020 ): 235-255
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - A Comparative Study on Modelling and Forecasting Tourism Revenues: The Case of Turkey AU - Murat Çuhadar Y1 - 2020 PY - 2020 N1 - doi: 10.30519/ahtr.765394 DO - 10.30519/ahtr.765394 T2 - Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research (AHTR) JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 235 EP - 255 VL - 8 IS - 2 SN - 2147-9100-2148-7316 M3 - doi: 10.30519/ahtr.765394 UR - https://doi.org/10.30519/ahtr.765394 Y2 - 2020 ER -
EndNote %0 Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research (AHTR) A Comparative Study on Modelling and Forecasting Tourism Revenues: The Case of Turkey %A Murat Çuhadar %T A Comparative Study on Modelling and Forecasting Tourism Revenues: The Case of Turkey %D 2020 %J Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research (AHTR) %P 2147-9100-2148-7316 %V 8 %N 2 %R doi: 10.30519/ahtr.765394 %U 10.30519/ahtr.765394
ISNAD Çuhadar, Murat . "A Comparative Study on Modelling and Forecasting Tourism Revenues: The Case of Turkey". Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research (AHTR) 8 / 2 (Aralık 2020): 235-255 . https://doi.org/10.30519/ahtr.765394
AMA Çuhadar M . A Comparative Study on Modelling and Forecasting Tourism Revenues: The Case of Turkey. Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research (AHTR). 2020; 8(2): 235-255.
Vancouver Çuhadar M . A Comparative Study on Modelling and Forecasting Tourism Revenues: The Case of Turkey. Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research (AHTR). 2020; 8(2): 235-255.
IEEE M. Çuhadar , "A Comparative Study on Modelling and Forecasting Tourism Revenues: The Case of Turkey", Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research (AHTR), c. 8, sayı. 2, ss. 235-255, Ara. 2020, doi:10.30519/ahtr.765394