Yıl 2019, Cilt 6 , Sayı 11, Sayfalar 353 - 366 2019-05-28

KISA VADELİ SERMAYE HAREKETLERİ İLE DIŞ TİCARET DENGESİ ARASINDA BİR İLİŞKİ VAR MI? TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ÇALIŞMA
IS THERE A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SHORT-TERM CAPITAL MOVEMENTS AND BALANCE OF FOREIGN TRADE? AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON TURKEY

Gülgün ÇİĞDEM [1]


Bu çalışmada kısa vadeli sermaye hareketleri ile net dış ticaret dengesi arasında korelasyon olup olmadığı sorgulanmıştır. Bu amaçla, Türkiye’nin 1986-2017 dönemine ilişkin portföy yatırımları ve net dış ticaret dengesine ilişkin Uluslarasası Para Fonu’ndan (IMF) alınan yıllık verileri, ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı ile test edilmiştir ve Hata Düzeltme Modeli (ECM) çerçevesinde incelenmiştir. Kısa dönem ilişkisini sorgulamak üzere ise ECM Model üzerinden Granger Test uygulanmıştır. Analizler sonucunda değişkenler arasında hem uzun hem de kısa vadede bir ilişki saptanmıştır. Literatür taramasında sermaye hareketlerinin çeşitli makro-iktisadi değişkenler üzerine etkileri üzerine çalışmalar yapıldığı görülmüş, ancak net dış ticaret açığı ile korelasyon ve etkilerinin ampirik olarak kanıtlandığı çalışmalara rastlanılmamıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı; sermaye girişleri ile dış ticaret dengesi arasındaki ilişkiyi sınamaktır ve literature bir katkı niteliğindedir. Cari açığın finansmanında ağırlıklı olarak portföy yatırımları kullanılmaktadır, bu akımlar dış ticaret açığına neden olmaktadır ve bu da cari açığa katkıda bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın sonucu, bu kısır döngünün yönetiminde politika yapıcılar açısından önemli olacaktır.

This work inquires whether there's a correlation between short-term capital movements and the net balance of foreign trade. To this end, the annual data pertaining to portfolio investment and net foreign trade balance of Turkey data received from the IMF for the period between 1986-2017 have been tested with the ARDL bounds test approach and were studied in regard to Error Correction Model (ECM). And to query short-term relationship, Granger Test over the ECM Model has been applied. In the light of the analyzes, a relationship was found between the variables in both long and short terms. The literature shows a number of studies on the impact of capital movements on various macro-economic variables, yet none on the empirical evidence of the impact and correlation of those movements on net foreign trade balance. The purpose of this study is to test the relationship between capital inflows and foreign trade balance and make a contribution to the literature. Portfolio investments are predominantly used in financing the current account deficit, these flows though result in a foreign trade deficit, which in turn contributes to the current account deficit. The result of this study will be significant for policy makers in managing this vicious circle.

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Orcid: 0000-0001-5353-8638
Yazar: Gülgün ÇİĞDEM

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Yayımlanma Tarihi : 28 Mayıs 2019

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { akademik-hassasiyetler571908, journal = {Akademik Hassasiyetler}, issn = {2148-5933}, address = {}, publisher = {Hüzeyfe Süleyman ARSLAN}, year = {2019}, volume = {6}, pages = {353 - 366}, doi = {}, title = {IS THERE A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SHORT-TERM CAPITAL MOVEMENTS AND BALANCE OF FOREIGN TRADE? AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON TURKEY}, key = {cite}, author = {ÇİĞDEM, Gülgün} }
APA ÇİĞDEM, G . (2019). IS THERE A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SHORT-TERM CAPITAL MOVEMENTS AND BALANCE OF FOREIGN TRADE? AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON TURKEY. Akademik Hassasiyetler , 6 (11) , 353-366 . Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/akademik-hassasiyetler/issue/45496/571908
MLA ÇİĞDEM, G . "IS THERE A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SHORT-TERM CAPITAL MOVEMENTS AND BALANCE OF FOREIGN TRADE? AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON TURKEY". Akademik Hassasiyetler 6 (2019 ): 353-366 <https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/akademik-hassasiyetler/issue/45496/571908>
Chicago ÇİĞDEM, G . "IS THERE A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SHORT-TERM CAPITAL MOVEMENTS AND BALANCE OF FOREIGN TRADE? AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON TURKEY". Akademik Hassasiyetler 6 (2019 ): 353-366
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - IS THERE A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SHORT-TERM CAPITAL MOVEMENTS AND BALANCE OF FOREIGN TRADE? AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON TURKEY AU - Gülgün ÇİĞDEM Y1 - 2019 PY - 2019 N1 - DO - T2 - Akademik Hassasiyetler JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 353 EP - 366 VL - 6 IS - 11 SN - 2148-5933- M3 - UR - Y2 - 2019 ER -
EndNote %0 Akademik Hassasiyetler IS THERE A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SHORT-TERM CAPITAL MOVEMENTS AND BALANCE OF FOREIGN TRADE? AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON TURKEY %A Gülgün ÇİĞDEM %T IS THERE A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SHORT-TERM CAPITAL MOVEMENTS AND BALANCE OF FOREIGN TRADE? AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON TURKEY %D 2019 %J Akademik Hassasiyetler %P 2148-5933- %V 6 %N 11 %R %U
ISNAD ÇİĞDEM, Gülgün . "IS THERE A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SHORT-TERM CAPITAL MOVEMENTS AND BALANCE OF FOREIGN TRADE? AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON TURKEY". Akademik Hassasiyetler 6 / 11 (Mayıs 2019): 353-366 .
AMA ÇİĞDEM G . IS THERE A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SHORT-TERM CAPITAL MOVEMENTS AND BALANCE OF FOREIGN TRADE? AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON TURKEY. Akademik Hassasiyetler. 2019; 6(11): 353-366.
Vancouver ÇİĞDEM G . IS THERE A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SHORT-TERM CAPITAL MOVEMENTS AND BALANCE OF FOREIGN TRADE? AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON TURKEY. Akademik Hassasiyetler. 2019; 6(11): 366-353.