2019-09-13

A Dynamic Model of the Spread of Intrastate War

Ali Fisunoğlu


The spread of intrastate war has gained increasing prominence, especially in the recent past. This paper studies the spread of intrastate war as a result of another intrastate war in a neighboring country using a system dynamics modeling approach. The model employed is a modification of the SIR, a spread of disease model taken from epidemiology. Revising the SIR model with relevant political and economic variables, the model seeks to explain the mechanism through which an intrastate conflict is spread from an "infected" country to a "susceptible" country. Although diffusion and contagion of civil wars have been widely examined in the past, a dynamic modeling approach has not been adequately used in this area. Consistent with the existing literature, the results of the model suggest that refugees are a means to carry the conflict disease from the initial country by disturbing economic and social dynamics of the host whereas political capacity acts as the immune system, reducing the likelihood of conflict contagion. The results of the simulations, obtained using theoretical parameters, are mainly consistent with the expectations.

Intrastate conflict, refugees, state capacity, diffusion of war, system dynamics models
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Birincil Dil en
Konular Sosyal
Yazarlar

Orcid: 0000-0002-4108-9457
Yazar: Ali Fisunoğlu

Tarihler

Yayımlanma Tarihi : 13 Eylül 2019

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { allazimuth616008, journal = {All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace}, issn = {2146-7757}, address = {}, publisher = {Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research, İhsan Doğramacı Peace Foundation}, year = {2019}, pages = { - }, doi = {10.20991/allazimuth.616008}, title = {A Dynamic Model of the Spread of Intrastate War}, key = {cite}, author = {Fisunoğlu, Ali} }
APA Fisunoğlu, A . (2019). A Dynamic Model of the Spread of Intrastate War. All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace , , . DOI: 10.20991/allazimuth.616008
MLA Fisunoğlu, A . "A Dynamic Model of the Spread of Intrastate War". All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace (2019 ): <https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/allazimuth/article/616008>
Chicago Fisunoğlu, A . "A Dynamic Model of the Spread of Intrastate War". All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace (2019 ):
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - A Dynamic Model of the Spread of Intrastate War AU - Ali Fisunoğlu Y1 - 2019 PY - 2019 N1 - doi: 10.20991/allazimuth.616008 DO - 10.20991/allazimuth.616008 T2 - All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - EP - SN - 2146-7757- M3 - doi: 10.20991/allazimuth.616008 UR - https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.616008 Y2 - 2019 ER -
EndNote %0 All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace A Dynamic Model of the Spread of Intrastate War %A Ali Fisunoğlu %T A Dynamic Model of the Spread of Intrastate War %D 2019 %J All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace %P 2146-7757- %R doi: 10.20991/allazimuth.616008 %U 10.20991/allazimuth.616008
ISNAD Fisunoğlu, Ali . "A Dynamic Model of the Spread of Intrastate War". All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace (Eylül 2019): - . https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.616008
AMA Fisunoğlu A . A Dynamic Model of the Spread of Intrastate War. All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace. 2019; -.
Vancouver Fisunoğlu A . A Dynamic Model of the Spread of Intrastate War. All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace. 2019; -.