Examining Relationships Among Turkey, Israel, and the United States in Terms of Interest Similarity

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 2, 236 - 259, 16.07.2024

Zuhal Çalık Topuz Jonathan Michael Spector

https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.1485249

Öz

Interest similarity is defined as the affinity of national interests in global affairs. This research aims to examine the interest similarity among Turkey, Israel, and the US. Interest similarity of countries has been examined by taking into account the factors of (a) alliance portfolio, (b) MID data, and (c) UNGA voting records. Quantitative data regarding these factors have been analyzed with correlation and regression models. The findings show that the interest similarities among these three countries have a statistically significant correlation. This research also examines the relationships between the three states to better understand which factors affect their interest similarity, and how. Thus, this study contributes to the political science and international relations literature by analyzing quantitative data while examining the interest similarity among Turkey, Israel, and the US.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Interest Similarity, Turkey, Israel, the US

Kaynakça

• Abadi, Jacob. “Israel and Turkey: from Covert to Overt Relations.” Journal of Conflict Studies 15, no. 2 (1995): 1-17.
• Al-Haj, Said. “The Israel Factor in Tense Turkey-US Relations.” Middle East Monitor. August 7, 2018. Accessed date November 9, 2020. https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20180807-the-israel-factor-in-tense-turkey-us-relations/
• Alirıza, Bülent, and Bülent Aras. US-Turkish Relations: A Review at the Beginning of the Third Decade of the Post-Cold War Era. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic & International Studies, 2012.
• Alirıza, Bülent. “The Turkish-Israeli Crisis and U.S.-Turkish Relations.” Center for Strategic and International Studies. September 20, 2011. Accessed date August 15, 2020. https://www.csis.org/analysis/turkish-israeli-crisis-and-us-turkish-relations.
• Arbell, Dan. “The US-Turkey-Israel Triangle.” Brookings: Center for Middle East Policy Analysis Paper, no. 34 (2014): 1-48.
• Arı, Tayyar. “Türk-Amerikan İlişkileri: Sistemdeki Değişim Sorunu mu?” Uluslararası Hukuk ve Politika 13, (2008): 17-35.
• Arı, Tayyar. Yükselen Güç: Türkiye-ABD İlişkileri ve Orta Doğu. İstanbul: Marmara Kitap Merkezi, 2010.
• Atmaca, Ayşe Ömür. “Yeni Dünyada Eski Oyun: Eleştirel Perspektiften Türk-Amerikan İlişkileri,” Ortadoğu Etütleri 3, no. 1 (2011): 157-192.
• Aviv, Efrat. “The Turkish Government’s Attitude to Israel and Zionism as Reflected in Israel’s Military Operations 2000–2010.” Israel Affairs 25, no. 2 (2019): 281-306.
• Aydınlı, Ersel, and Onur Erpul. “Elite Change and the Inception, Duration, and Demise of the Turkish–Israeli Alliance.” Foreign Policy Analysis 17, no. 2 (2021): 1-21.
• Bailey, Michael A., Anton Strezhnev, and Erik Voeten, “Estimating Dynamic State Preferences from United Nations Voting Data.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 2 (2017): 430-456.
• Ball, M. Margaret. “Bloc voting in the General Assembly.” International Organization 5, no. 1 (1951): 3-31.
• Bapat, Navin A. “The Internationalization of Terrorist Campaigns.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 24, no. 4 (2007): 265-280.
• Blackwill, Robert D., and Slocombe B. Walter. “Israel: A Strategic Asset for the United States.” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. October 31, 2011. Accessed date November 9, 2020. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/israel-strategic-asset-united-states-0
• Bosley, Daniel. “The United States and Israel: A (neo) Realist Relationship.” Spire Journal of Law, Politics and Societies 3, no. 2 (2008): 33-52.
• Brom, Sholomo. “The Israeli-Turkish Relationship.” In Troubled Triangle: The United States, Turkey and Israel in the New Middle East, edited by William B. Quandt, 45-59. Charlottesville, Virginia: Just World Books, 2011.
• Cohen, Matthew S., and Charles D. Freilich. “Breakdown and Possible Restart: Turkish–Israeli Relations under the AKP.” Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs 8, no.1, (2014): 39-55.
• Cook, Steven A. “The USA, Turkey, and the Middle East: Continuities, Challenges, and Opportunities.” Turkish Studies 12, no. 4 (2011): 717-726.
• Davutoğlu, Ahmet. Stratejik Derinlik. İstanbul: Küre Yayınları, 2009.
• de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno. “Measuring Systemic Polarity.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 19, no. 2 (1975): 187-216.
• de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno. The War Trap. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1983.
• Diehl, Paul F., and Gary Goertz. War and Peace in International Rivalry. Michigan: University of Michigan Press, 2001.
• Efron, Shira. Future of Israeli-Turkish Relations. Santa Monica: Rand Corporation, 2018.
• Eligür, Banu Eligür. “Crisis in Turkish–Israeli Relations (December 2008–June 2011): From Partnership to Enmity.” Middle Eastern Studies 48, no. 3, (2012): 429-459.
• Eminoğlu, Ayça. “Tarihsel Süreçte Türkiye İsrail İlişkilerinin Değişen Yapısı.” Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü 7, no.15 (2016): 88-106.
• Ertosun, Erkan. “Türkiye’nin Filistin Politikasında ABD ya da AB Çizgisi: Güvenlik Etkeninin Belirleyiciliği.” Uluslararası Hukuk ve Politika 7, no. 28 (2011): 57-88.
• Fearon, James D. “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49, no. 3 (1995): 379-414.
• Freedman, Robert O. Israel’s First Fifty Years. Florida: University Press of Florida, 2000.
• Gartzke, Eric. “The Capitalist Peace.” American Journal of Political Science 51, no.1 (2007): 166-191.
• Gartzke, Eric. “Kant We All Just Get Along? Opportunity, Willingness, and the Origins of the Democratic Peace.” American Journal of Political Science 42, no. 1 (1998): 1-27.
• Gause III, Gregory F. “The US-Israeli-Turkish Strategic Triangle: Cold War Structures and Domestic Political Processes.” In Troubled Triangle: The United States, Turkey, and Israel in the New Middle East, edited by
• William B. Quandt, 22-40. Charlottesville, Virginia: Just World Books, 2011.
• Gibler, Douglas M., and Meredith Reid Sarkees. “Measuring Alliances: The Correlates of War Formal Interstate Alliance Dataset, 1816-2000.” Journal of Peace Research 41, no. 2 (2004): 211-222.
• Gochman, Charles S., and Zeev Maoz. “Militarized Interstate Disputes 1816-1976.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 28, no. 4 (1984): 585-616.
• Habtemariam, Eyasu, Tshilidzi Marwala, and Monica Lagazio. “Artificial Intelligence for Conflict Management.” In Proceedings IEEE International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, 2005. https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?arnumber=1556310
• Häge, Frank M. “Choice or circumstance? Adjusting Measures of Foreign Policy Similarity for Chance Agreement.” Political Analysis 19, no. 3, (2011): 287-305.
• Häge, Frank M., and Simon Hug. “Consensus Decisions and Similarity Measures in International Organizations.” International Interactions 42, no. 3 (2016): 503-529.
• Heckman, Garrett Alan. “Power Capabilities and Similarity of Interests: A Test of the Power Transition Theory.” Master of Science thesis. Londen School of Economics, 2009.
• Holloway, Steven. “Forty years of United Nations General Assembly Voting.” Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique 23, no. 2 (1990): 279-296.
• Ifantis, Kostas. The US and Turkey in the fog of Regional Uncertainty, GreeSe Paper 73. London: Hellenic Observatory LSE, 2013. https://eprints.lse.ac.uk/50987/1/__libfile_REPOSITORY_Content_Hellenic%20Observatory%20(inc.%20GreeSE%20Papers)_GreeSE%20Papers_GreeSE%20No73.pdf
• Inbar, Efraim. “The Resilience of Israeli–Turkish Relations.” Israel Affairs 11, no. 4 (2005): 591-607.
• Johnston, Alastair Iain. “China’s Militarized Interstate Dispute Behavior 1949–1992: A First Cut at the Data.” The China Quarterly no. 153, (1998): 1-30.
• Jones, Daniel M., Stuart A. Bremer, and J. David Singer. “Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816–1992: Rationale, Coding Rules, and Empirical Patterns.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 15, no. 2 (1996): 163-213.
• Kaya, Mehmet. “Türk-İsrail İlişkileri ve Filistin.” Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 9, no. 18 (2019): 1043-1066.
• Khan, Mohammad Zahidul Islam. “Is Voting Patterns at the United Nations General Assembly a Useful Way to Understand a Country’s Policy Inclinations: Bangladesh’s Voting Records at the United Nations General Assembly.” SAGE Open 10, no. 4 (2020): 1-16.
• Kim, Hyung Min. “Comparing Measures of National Power,” International Political Science Review 31, no. 4 (2010): 405-427.
• Kim, Soo Yeon, and Bruce Russett. “The New Politics of Voting Alignments in the United Nations General Assembly,” International organization 50, no. 4 (1996): 629-652.
• Laipson, Ellen, Philip Zelikow, and Brantly Womack. “Strategic Perspectives: Comments and Discussion.” In Troubled Triangle: The United States, Turkey, and Israel in the New Middle East, edited by William B. Quandt, 60-72. Charlottesville, Virginia: Just World Books, 2011.
• Lapidot-Firilla, Anat. “Turkey’s Search for a ‘Third Option’ and Its Impact on Relations with US and Israel.” Turkish Policy Quarterly 4, no. 1 (2005): 1-9.
• Larrabee, Stephen F. Troubled partnership: US-Turkish Relations in an Era of Global Geopolitical Change. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2010.
• Lesser, Ian O. “Turkey, the United States, and the Geopolitics of Delusion.” Survival 48, no. 3 (2006): 1-13.
• Liel, Alon. Turkey in the Middle East: Oil, Islam, and Politics, 27-101. Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2001.
• Liu, Ken, and Chris Taylor. “United States-Turkey-Iran: Strategic Options for the Coming Decade,” Institute of Politics. 2011. Accessed date November 9, 2020. https://iop.harvard.edu/sites/default/files_new/Programs/US_TurkeyIranPolicyPaper.pdf
• Maoz, Zeev et al. “The Dyadic Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs) Dataset Version 3.0: Logic, Characteristics, and Comparisons to Alternative Datasets.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 63, no. 3 (2019): 811-835.
• Mearsheimer, John, and Stephen Walt. “The Israel Lobby.” In The Domestic Sources of American Foreign Policy: Insights and Evidence, edited by James M. McCormick, 89-103. London: Rowman & Littlefield Publishing, 2012.
• Migdalovitz, Carol. Turkey: Selected Foreign Policy Issues and US Views. Washington, DC: Library of Congress Congressional Research Service, 2008. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA486490
• Morgenthau, Hans. Politics Among Nations. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1951.
• Morrow, James D. “Alliances and Asymmetry: An Alternative to the Capability Aggregation Model of Alliances.” American Journal of Political Science 35, no. 4 (1991): 904-933.
• Quandt, William B., ed. Troubled Triangle: The United States, Turkey, and Israel in the New Middle East. Charlottesville, Virginia: Just World Books, 2011.
• Rajapakshe, R.D.P. Sampath. “Similarity of Interests between Governments and Its Impact on their Bilateral Relations: Case study of China-Sri Lanka Relations.” International Journal of Scientific Research and Innovative Technology 2, no. 11 (2015): 40-53.
• Reich, Bernard, and Shannon Powers. “The United States and Israel: The Nature of a Special Relationship.” In The Middle East and the United States, Student Economy Edition, 227-243. New York: Routledge, 2016.
• Signorino, Curtis S., and Jeffrey M. Ritter. “Tau-b or not tau-b: Measuring the Similarity of Foreign Policy Positions.” International Studies Quarterly 43, no. 1 (1999): 115-144.
• Singer, David J., Stuart Bremer, and John Stuckey. “Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820-1965.” In Peace, War, and Numbers, edited by Bruce Russett, 19-48. Beverly Hills: Sage, 1972.
• Snyder, Glenn H. Alliance Politics. New York: Cornell University Press, 1997.
• Strüver, Georg. “What Friends are Made of: Bilateral Linkages and Domestic Drivers of Foreign Policy Alignment with China.” Foreign Policy Analysis 12, no. 2 (2016): 170-191.
• Sweeney, Kevin John. “A Dyadic Theory of Conflict: Power and Interests in World Polities.” PhD dissertation. The Ohio State University, 2004.
• Sweeney, Kevin John, and Omar M. G. Keshk. “The Similarity of States: Using S to Compute Dyadic Interest Similarity.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 22, no. 2 (2005): 165-187.
• “The Correlates of War Project – Data Sets.” Correlates of War. Accessed date April 10, 2020. https://correlatesofwar.org/data-sets
• Turan, Yavuz. Çuvallayan İttifak. Ankara: Destek Yayınları, 2006.
• “Türkiye-İsrail ilişkilerinde Yeni Dönüm Noktası.” Deutsche Welle. March 9, 2022. Accessed date March 9, 2022. https://www.dw.com/tr/t%C3%BCrkiye-i%CC%87srail-ili%C5%9Fkilerinde-yeni-d%C3%B6n%C3%BCm-noktas%C4%B1/a-61072319
• Ulusoy, Kıvanç. “Turkey and Israel: Changing Patterns of Alliances in the Eastern Mediterranean.” Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies 22, no. 3 (2020): 415-430.
• Voeten, Erik, Anton Strezhnev, and Michael Bailey. United Nations General Assembly Voting Data, V27 (2009). Harvard Dataverse. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/LEJUQZ
• Voeten, Erik. “Data and Analyses of Voting in the United Nations General Assembly.” In Routledge Handbook of International Organization, edited by Bob Reinalda, 54-66. London: Routledge, 2013.
• Watts, Stephen et al. Understanding Conflict Trends: A Review of the Social Science Literature on the Causes of Conflict. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2017.
• Weldes, Jutta. “Constructing National Interests,” European Journal of International Relations 2, no. 3 (1996): 275-318.
• Yılmaz, Muzaffer Ercan. “Soğuk Savaş Sonrası Dönemde Türkiye-İsrail İlişkileri.” Akademik Orta Doğu 4, no. 2 (2010): 49-65.
• Yong, Deng. “The Chinese conception of National Interest in International Relations.” The China Quaterly 154, (1998): 308-329.