The Impact of Economic Growth, Renewable Energy, Non-renewable Energy and Trade Openness on the Ecological Footprint and Forecasting in Turkiye: an Case of the ARDL and NMGM Forecasting Model

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2, 139 - 154, 31.12.2022

Özlem Karadağ Albayrak , Samet Topal , Serhat Çamkaya

https://doi.org/10.17093/alphanumeric.1144398

Cited By: 3

Öz

In this study, the effects of economic growth, renewable and non-renewable energy production and trade openness on ecological footprint for Turkey were investigated. By using the annual data for the period 1980-2016, the short- and long-term relationship with the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) was examined. In addition, a prediction model is presented with the Multivariate Gray Prediction Model (NMGM) method. According to the findings obtained from the ARDL model, economic growth, renewable and non-renewable energy production have a positive effect of 0.166, 0.1431 and 0.1118, respectively, on the ecological footprint in the long run. In the short run, economic growth, renewable energy production and non-renewable energy production has the same effect of 0.1941, 0.1673 and 0.1308 on the ecological footprint. In addition, no effect of trade openness on the ecological footprint has been detected, both in the long and short run. The originality of this study is to investigate the short- and long-term effects of economic growth and trade openness on the ecological footprint, in addition to the amount of renewable energy production and non-renewable energy production in Turkey, using the ARDL model. In addition, another originality of this study is a dynamic evaluation of the ecological footprint for Turkey and the determination of the impact values of the variables that affect the ecological footprint. ARIMA models, in which the dependent variable is estimated with its own past values, are generally used as estimation models. Likewise, univariate gray estimation models also make estimations with the dependent variable's own past values. Another unique aspect of this study is the use of a gray estimation model, in which the variables that have been shown to have a significant short- and long-term relationship with ARDL are also included in the model.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ecological Footprint, ARDL, Gray Estimaiton, Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Production

Kaynakça

• Akarca, A. T. ve Long, T. V. (1980). “On the relationship between energy and GNP: a reexamination”, The Journal of Energy and Development, 5(2), 326-331.
• Akay, E. Ç., Abdieva, R. ve Oskonbaeva, Z. (2015). “Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketimi, İktisadi Büyüme Ve Karbondioksit Emisyonu Arasındaki Nedensel İlişki: Orta Doğu Ve Kuzey Afrika Ülkeleri Örneği”, International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Çevre ve Enerji, Kazan, Rusya, 628-636.
• Al-Mulali, U., ve Ozturk, I. (2015). “The Effect Of Energy Consumption, Urbanization, Trade Openness, İndustrial Output, And The Political Stability On The Environmental Degradation in the MENA (Middle East and North African) Region”, Energy, 84, 382-389.
• Apergis, N., ve Payne, J. E. (2012). “Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Consumption-Growth Nexus: Evidence From A Panel Error Correction Model”, Energy Economics, 34(3), 733-738.
• Apergis, N., Payne, J. E., Menyah, K. ve Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2010). “On The Causal Dynamics Between Emissions, Nuclear Energy, Renewable Energy and Economic Growth”, Ecological Economics, 69(11), 2255-2260.
• Borucke, M., Moore, D., Cranston, G., Gracey, K., Iha, K., Larson, J., ... ve Galli, A. (2013). “Accounting for Demand and Supply of The Biosphere's Regenerative Capacity: The National Footprint Accounts’ Underlying Methodology And Framework”, Ecological Indicators, 24, 518-533.
• Bulut, U. (2021). “Environmental Sustainability in Turkey: An Environmental Kuznets Curve Estimation For Ecological Footprint”, International Journal of Sustainable Development ve World Ecology, 28(3), 227-237.
• Chang, N. B., ve Tseng, C. C. (1999). “Optimal Evaluation of Expansion Alternatives for Existing Air Quality Monitoring Network by Grey Compromise Programing”, Journal of Environmental Management, 56(1), 61-77.
• Charfeddine, L. (2017). “The impact of energy consumption and economic development on ecological footprint and CO2 emissions: evidence from a Markov switching equilibrium correction model”, Energy Economics, 65, 355-374.
• Cole, M. A. (2004). “Trade, the Pollution Haven Hypothesis and the Environmental Kuznets Curve: Examining the Linkages”, Ecological Economics, 48(1), 71-81.
• Čuček, L., Klemeš, J. J., ve Kravanja, Z. (2012). “A Review Of Footprint Analysis Tools for Monitoring İmpacts on Sustainability”, Journal of Cleaner Production, 34, 9-20.
• Çetin, M., ve Sezen, S. (2018). “Türkiye'de Yenilenebilir Ve Yenilenemeyen Enerji Tüketimi, Ekonomik Büyüme Ve Karbondioksit Salınımı Arasındaki İlişki: Bir Svar (Yapısal Var) Analizi”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 16(1), 136-157.
• Deng, J.L. (1982), “Control Problems of Grey Systems”, Systems ve Control Letters, 1(5), 288-294.
• Deng, J.L. (1989). “Introduction to Grey Systems”, Grey System, 1, 1-24.
• Destek, M. A., ve Sinha, A. (2020). “Renewable, Non-Renewable Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, Trade Openness and Ecological Footprint: Evidence From Organisation For Economic Co-Operation and Development Countries”, Journal of Cleaner Production, 242, 118537.
• Destek, M. A., Ulucak, R., ve Dogan, E. (2018). “Analyzing the Environmental Kuznets Curve for the EU Countries: The Role of Ecological Footprint”, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25(29), 29387-29396.
• Dickey, D. A., ve Fuller, W. A. (1979). “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431.
• Dogan, E., ve Ozturk, I. (2017). “The İnfluence of Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Consumption and Real İncome on CO2 Emissions in The USA: Evidence From Structural Break Tests”, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 24(11), 10846-10854.
• Dogan, E., Taspinar, N., ve Gokmenoglu, K. K. (2019). “Determinants of Ecological Footprint İn MINT Countries”. Energy ve Environment, 30(6), 1065-1086.
• Dumrul, Y., ve Kılıçarslan, Z. (2020). “Türkiye’nin Uluslararası Ticareti ve Ekolojik Ayak İzi”, MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 9(3), 1589-1597.
• Eden, S. H., ve Hwang, B. K. (1984). “The Relationship Between Energy and GNP: Further Results”. Energy Economics, 6(3), 186-190.
• Engle, R. F., ve Granger, C. W. (1987). “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.
• Farhani, S. (2013). “Renewable Energy Consumption, Economic Growth And CO2 Emissions: Evidence From Selected MENA Countries”. Energy Economics Letters, 1(2), 24-41.
• Galeotti, M., ve Lanza, A. (1999). “Richer And Cleaner? A Study on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Developing Countries”. Energy Policy, 27(10), 565-573.
• Global Footprint Network. (2021). https://data.footprintnetwork.org/#/countryTrends?type=BCpc,EFCpcvecn=5001. Erişim Tarihi: 15.10.2021. Global Footprint Network. (2021). https://data.footprintnetwork.org/#/countryTrends?cn=223vetype=BCpc,EFCpc. Erişim Tarihi: 16.10.2021.
• Global Footprint Network. (2021). https://data.footprintnetwork.org/#/countryTrends?type=BCtot,EFCtotvecn=223. Erişim Tarihi: 16.10.2021.
• Global Footprint Network. (2021). https://www.footprintnetwork.org/our-work/ecological-footprint/. Erişim Tarihi: 15.10.2021.
• Grossman, G. M., ve Krueger, A. B. (1991). “Environmental Impacts of the North American Free Trade. NBER”. Working Paper 3914.
• Grossman, G. M., ve Krueger, A. B. (1995). “Economic Growth and the Environment”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), 353-377.
• He, F. S., Gan, G. G. G., Al-Mulali, U., ve Solarin, S. A., (2019). “The İnfluences of Economic Indicators on Environmental Pollution ın Malaysia”, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 9(2), 123–131.
• Holtz-Eakin, D., ve Selden, T. M. (1995). “Stoking the fFres? CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth”, Journal of Public Economics, 57(1), 85-101.
• Johansen, S., ve Juselius, K. (1990). “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration—with Appucations to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 52(2), 169-210.
• Kahia, M., Aïssa, M. S. B., ve Charfeddine, L. (2016). “Impact of Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Consumption on Economic Growth: New Evidence from the MENA Net Oil Exporting Countries (NOECs)”, Energy, 116, 102-115.
• Kızılkaya, O., Çoban, O., ve Sofuoğlu, E. (2015). “Türkiye’de Karbondioksit Emisyonu, Enerji Tüketimi, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Dışa Açıklık İlişkisi: Eşbütünleşme Analizi”, EconWorld2015, Torino, 18-20 August, Italy.
• Kihombo, S., Ahmed, Z., Chen, S., Adebayo, T. S., ve Kirikkaleli, D. (2021). “Linking Financial Development, Economic Growth, and Ecological Footprint: What İs The Role of Technological Innovation?”. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(43), 61235-61245.
• Kraft, J., ve Kraft, A. (1978). “On The Relationship Between Energy and GNP”, The Journal of Energy and Development, 401-403.
• Kutlar, A., Gulmez, A., Kabasakal, A., ve Kutlar, S. (2021). “Ecological Footprint, Energy Usage, and Economic Progress Relationship: The MINT Countries”. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 1-24.
• Kuznets, S. (1955). “Economic Growth and Income Inequality”, The American Economic Review, 45(1), 1-28.
• Lee, C. C., Chiu, Y. B., ve Sun, C. H. (2009). “Does One Size Fit All? A Reexamination of the Environmental Kuznets Curve Using The Dynamic Panel Data Approach”. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 31(4), 751-778.
• Lim J. (1997). “The Effects of Economic Growth on Environmental Quality: Some Empirical Investigation for the Case of South Korea”, Seoul Journal of Economics, 10 (3), 273-292.
• Mancini, M. S., Galli, A., Niccolucci, V., Lin, D., Bastianoni, S., Wackernagel, M., ve Marchettini, N. (2016). “Ecological Footprint: Refining the Carbon Footprint Calculation”, Ecological Indicators, 61, 390-403.
• Menyah, K., ve Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2010). “CO2 Emissions, Nuclear Energy, Renewable Energy And Economic Growth in The US”, Energy Policy, 38(6), 2911-2915.
• Mrabet, Z., AlSamara, M., ve Jarallah, S. H. (2017). “The İmpact of Economic Development on Environmental Degradation İn Qatar”. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 24(1), 7-38.
• Narayan, P. K. (2005). “The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests”. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990.
• Narayan, P. K., ve Narayan, S. (2010). Carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth: Panel data evidence from developing countries. Energy Policy, 38(1), 661-666.
• Nathaniel, S., ve Khan, S. A. R. (2020). “The Nexus Between Urbanization, Renewable Energy, Trade, and Ecological Footprint İn ASEAN Countries”, Journal of Cleaner Production, 272, 122709.
• Pata, U. K., ve Caglar, A. E. (2021). “Investigating The EKC Hypothesis with Renewable Energy Consumption, Human Capital, Globalization and Trade Openness for China: Evidence from Augmented ARDL Approach With A Structural Break”. Energy, 216, 119220.
• Peng, B., Wang, Y., Elahi, E., ve Wei, G. (2018). “Evaluation and Prediction of The Ecological Footprint and Ecological Carrying Capacity for Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration Based On The Grey Model”, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 15(11), 2543.
• Perron, P. (1990). “Testing for a Unit Root ın a Time Series with a Changing Mean”. Journal of Business ve Economic Statistics, 8(2), 153-162.
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., ve Smith, R. J. (2001). “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis Of Level Relationships”. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
• Rees, W. E. (1992). “Ecological Footprints and Appropriated Carrying Capacity: What Urban Economics Leaves Out”. Environment and Urbanization, 4(2), 121-130.
• Sebri, M., ve Ben-Salha, O. (2014). “On The Causal Dynamics Between Economic Growth, Renewable Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and Trade Openness: Fresh Evidence From BRICS Countries”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 39, 14-23.
• Shafiei, S., ve Salim, R. A. (2014). “Non-Renewable And Renewable Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions İn OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis”, Energy Policy, 66, 547-556.
• Shahzad, S. J. H., Kumar, R. R., Zakaria, M., ve Hurr, M. (2017). “Carbon Emission, Energy Consumption, Trade Openness and Financial Development ın Pakistan: A Revisit”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 70, 185-192.
• Sharif, A., Baris-Tuzemen, O., Uzuner, G., Ozturk, I., ve Sinha, A. (2020). “Revisiting the Role of Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Consumption on Turkey’s Ecological Footprint: Evidence from Quantile ARDL Approach”, Sustainable Cities and Society, 57, 102138.
• Wackernagel, M. (1998), “The Ecological Footprint of Santiago de Chile”, Local Environment, 3(1), 7-25.
• Wackernagel, M. ve Rees, W.E. (1996). Our Ecological Footprint: Reducing Human Impact on the Earth. New Society Publishers, Gabriola Island, BC.
• Wang, J. ve Dong, K. (2019). “What Drives Environmental Degradation? Evidence From 14 Sub-Saharan African Countries”, Science of the Total Environment, 656, 165-173.
• Wang, Q. (2008), Dynamic Evaluation and Control of Ecological Footprint of Zhejiang Based on the Grey Prediction Mode. Proceedings of the 7th World Congress on Intelligent Control and Automation June, 25 - 27, Chongqing, China.
• Wang, X. Ve Meng M. (2008). Forecastıng Electrıcıty Demand Usıng Grey-Markov Model”, Conference: Machine Learning and Cybernetics, 2008 International Conference on Volume, 1244-1248.
• Wei B. ve Xie N. (2022). “On Unified Framework For Continuous-Time Grey Models: An Integral Matching Perspective”, Applied Mathematical Modelling, 101, 432–45.
• WWF (2012). Türkiye’nin Ekolojik Ayak İzi Raporu, Ofset Yapımevi.
• Yang Q.,Liu G., Hao Y., Coscieme L., Zhang J., Jiang N, Casazza M. ve Giannetti B. F. (2018). “Quantitative Analysis of The Dynamic Changes of Ecological Security ın The Provinces of China Through Emergy-Ecological Footprint Hybrid İndicators”, Journal of Cleaner Production, 184, 678-695.
• Yilanci, V., ve Pata, U. K. (2020). “Investigating the EKC Hypothesis for China: The Role of Economic Complexity on Ecological Footprint”, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 32683-32694.
• Zeng, B., Duan, H., ve Zhou, Y. (2019). “A New Multivariable Grey Prediction Model with Structure Compatibility”, Applied Mathematical Modelling, 75, 385-397.