THE IMMINENT POPULATION DECLINE IN TURKEY AFTER COVID-19 AND THE SYRIAN CRYSIS

Can Bekaroğlu

doi:10.53443/anadoluibfd.1634769

THE IMMINENT POPULATION DECLINE IN TURKEY AFTER COVID-19 AND THE SYRIAN CRYSIS

Abstract

This study examines recent demographic trends in Türkiye and provides population projections for the 2023–2040 period. Using 2014–2022 panel data from TURKSTAT, based on registered addresses and disaggregated by place of birth, we distinguish between native (81 provinces) and foreign-born populations. Historical population growth rates are calculated and future trends are projected using regression-based models. Given the sharp decline in population growth observed in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, two scenarios are considered: one assuming a permanent effect, and another assuming a temporary shock. Our findings indicate a rapid decline in native population growth, turning negative by 2028, with the native population peaking at approximately 83 million. Nearly half of current population growth is attributable to the foreign-born population, which is officially near 5 million and expected to rise further. By 2040, the native population is projected to fall to 76 million, while the total population is expected to range between 86 and 94 million—depending on immigration policies—of which 11% to 19% (up to 18 million people) will be foreign-born. The results suggest that natural population growth in most Turkish provinces has nearly ceased, and immigration has become the dominant driver of demographic change.

Keywords

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Urban Economy, Political Economy

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Can Bekaroğlu ^*
0000-0002-4033-1897
Türkiye

Publication Date

March 26, 2026

Submission Date

February 6, 2025

Acceptance Date

January 19, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 27 Number: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1634769

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA43YF38FF

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Bekaroğlu, C. (2026). THE IMMINENT POPULATION DECLINE IN TURKEY AFTER COVID-19 AND THE SYRIAN CRYSIS. Anadolu Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 27(1), 1-50. https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1634769

AMA

1.Bekaroğlu C. THE IMMINENT POPULATION DECLINE IN TURKEY AFTER COVID-19 AND THE SYRIAN CRYSIS. AUİİBFD. 2026;27(1):1-50. doi:10.53443/anadoluibfd.1634769

Chicago

Bekaroğlu, Can. 2026. “THE IMMINENT POPULATION DECLINE IN TURKEY AFTER COVID-19 AND THE SYRIAN CRYSIS”. Anadolu Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 27 (1): 1-50. https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1634769.

EndNote

Bekaroğlu C (March 1, 2026) THE IMMINENT POPULATION DECLINE IN TURKEY AFTER COVID-19 AND THE SYRIAN CRYSIS. Anadolu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 27 1 1–50.

IEEE

[1]C. Bekaroğlu, “THE IMMINENT POPULATION DECLINE IN TURKEY AFTER COVID-19 AND THE SYRIAN CRYSIS”, AUİİBFD, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 1–50, Mar. 2026, doi: 10.53443/anadoluibfd.1634769.

ISNAD

Bekaroğlu, Can. “THE IMMINENT POPULATION DECLINE IN TURKEY AFTER COVID-19 AND THE SYRIAN CRYSIS”. Anadolu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 27/1 (March 1, 2026): 1-50. https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1634769.

JAMA

1.Bekaroğlu C. THE IMMINENT POPULATION DECLINE IN TURKEY AFTER COVID-19 AND THE SYRIAN CRYSIS. AUİİBFD. 2026;27:1–50.

MLA

Bekaroğlu, Can. “THE IMMINENT POPULATION DECLINE IN TURKEY AFTER COVID-19 AND THE SYRIAN CRYSIS”. Anadolu Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 27, no. 1, Mar. 2026, pp. 1-50, doi:10.53443/anadoluibfd.1634769.

Vancouver

1.Can Bekaroğlu. THE IMMINENT POPULATION DECLINE IN TURKEY AFTER COVID-19 AND THE SYRIAN CRYSIS. AUİİBFD. 2026 Mar. 1;27(1):1-50. doi:10.53443/anadoluibfd.1634769