TÜRKİYE’DE REEL DÖVİZ KURUNUN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: DOĞRUSAL VE DOĞRUSAL OLMAYAN ARDL BULGULARI

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 1, 400 - 424, 27.03.2023

Burcu Berke

https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1136937

Cited By: 1

Öz

Makro değişkenlerin artması veya azalması reel döviz kurunda değer kaybı veya değerlenme yaratabilir ve bu koşullarda, Türkiye ekonomisinin dış rekabetçi yapısı diğer ticaret partnerleri karşısında iyileşebilir veya kötüleşebilir. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı Türkiye için 1994-2019 döneminde reel döviz kurunun makroekonomik belirleyicilerini veya spesifik olarak verimliliğin reel döviz kuruna etkilerini hem doğrusal (ARDL) hem de doğrusal olmayan (NARDL) yöntemler kullanarak araştırmaktır. Uzun dönemde diğer kontrol değişkenlerinin (doğrudan yabancı yatırım, dışa açıklık ve kamu tüketimi) etkileri kontrol edildikten sonra doğrusal model, verimlilikteki artışın reel döviz kurunun değerini düşürdüğünü veya bir anlamda Balassa-Samuelson hipotezinin geçerli olmadığını gösterirken, doğrusal olmayan model ise verimlilikteki hem pozitif hem de negatif şokların reel döviz kurunu düşürdüğünü veya reel değer kaybı yarattığını ortaya koyarak doğrusal model sonuçlarını doğrulamaktadır. Ampirik bulgular, Türkiye ekonomisi için dış rekabetçi yapının diğer ticaret partnerleri karşısında iyileşebileceğini göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar konuyla ilgilenenler için önemli politika implikasyonlarına sahiptir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Reel döviz kuru, Verimlilik, Türkiye, ARDL, NARDL

DETERMINANTS OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE IN TURKEY: LINEAR AND NONLINEAR ARDL FINDINGS

Öz

An increase or decrease in macro variables may cause a depreciation or appreciation in the real exchange rate, and under these conditions, the external competitiveness of the Turkish economy may improve or deteriorate against other trading partners. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the macroeconomic determinants of the real exchange rate or specifically the effects of productivity on the real exchange rate for Turkey in the period 1994-2019, using both linear (ARDL) and non-linear (NARDL) methods. After controlling for the effects of other control variables (foreign direct investment, openness and government consumption) in the long run, the linear model shows that the increase in productivity decreases the value of the real exchange rate or, in a sense, the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis is invalid, on the other hand, the nonlinear model confirms the linear model results by revealing that both positive and negative shocks in productivity lower the real exchange rate or create real depreciation. Empirical findings show that the external competitiveness of the Turkish economy can improve against other trading partners. These results have important policy implications for those interested.

Anahtar Kelimeler

real exchange rate, productivity, ARDL, NARDL

Kaynakça

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