VARLIK FİYATLARI VE TÜKETİMİN YAPISAL MODELLEMESİ: SERVET ETKİSİNİN ROLÜ

Year 2025, Volume: 26 Issue: 2, 244 - 261, 30.06.2025

Ayşegül Şahin

https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1576974

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye ekonomisinde tüketim ile varlık fiyatları arasındaki etkileşimi inceleyerek servet etkisinin varlığını araştırmaktadır. Para arzı, konut fiyat endeksi, tahvil faiz oranı, BIST 100 endeksi ve döviz kuru gibi temel ekonomik göstergelerin tüketim üzerindeki etkileri Yapısal Vektör Otoregresyon (SVAR) modeli ile analiz edilmiştir. Bulgular, para arzı, konut fiyat artışları ve döviz kurunun bireylerin servet algısını pozitif etkileyerek tüketimi artırdığını göstermektedir. Tahvil faiz oranlarının yükselmesi tahvil fiyatlarının düştüğü anlamına gelir bu da tüketimi kısıtlayıcı bir etki yaratmaktadır. BIST100’deki pozitif şokun etkisi kısa dönemde tüketimi artırsa da uzun dönemde azaltıcı bir etkiye sahiptir. Çalışmanın sonuçları, Türkiye’de servet etkisinin varlığını ve politika yapıcılar için tüketimi destekleyici stratejilerin oluşturulmasında dikkate alınması gereken önemli ipuçlarını ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

Varlık Fiyatları , tüketim , SVAR Modeli

STRUCTURAL MODELLING OF ASSET PRICES AND CONSUMPTION: THE ROLE OF THE WEALTH EFFECT

Abstract

This study investigates the existence of the wealth effect by examining the interaction between consumption and asset prices in the Turkish economy. The impact of fundamental economic indicators such as money supply, housing price index, bond interest rate, BIST 100 index, and exchange rate on consumption were analyzed with the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model. The findings show that increases in money supply, housing prices, and exchange rate positively affect individuals' perception of wealth and increase consumption. An increase in bond interest rates means that bond prices decrease, restricting consumption. Although the effect of the positive shock in BIST100 increases consumption in the short term, it has a decreasing impact in the long term. The study's results reveal the existence of the wealth effect in Türkiye and important clues that policymakers should consider in developing consumption-supporting strategies.

Keywords

Asset Prices , Consumption , SVAR Model

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