Forecasting The Impact of Vaccination on Daily Cases in Turkey for Covid-19

Abstract

This study, it is aimed to investigate the effect of the vaccine on the cases in the fight against Covid-19, which threatens the whole world. The number of Covid-19 cases, which were tried to be reduced with various precautions worldwide and in Turkey, has become a new hope with the start of vaccination. The increase in the effect of the vaccination, which started in January 2021, brought the need to examine the vaccination rate in three groups as slow, medium, and fast. In this study, different scenarios were tried in the number of vaccinations applied in Turkey, and the daily number of cases until December 2021 was forecasted by Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The effect of restrictions and vaccination on the number of Covid-19 cases was investigated. Different training algorithms were used, and the best success rate was found with the comparison method. Accurate forecasting of cases will let policymakers take precautions on time. Moreover, the effect of vaccination on cases should be investigated.

Keywords

• Covid-19
• Forecasting
• Artificial Intelligence
• Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)
• Daily Case.

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