Artuklu Kaime 3062-164X Mardin Artuklu Üniversitesi 10.55119/artuklukaime.1898436 Time-Series Analysis Agricultural Economics Zaman Serileri Analizi Tarım Ekonomisi Verimlilik ve Çevre Göstergelerinin Türk Tarım Sektörüne Etkisi The Impact of Productivity and Environmental Indicators on the Turkish Agricultural Sector https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3611-2755 Yıldız Hakan İSTANBUL MEDİPOL ÜNİVERSİTESİ 03 31 2026 17 1 18 02 26 2026 03 19 2026 Copyright © 2018, Artuklu Kaime 2018 Artuklu Kaime

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye'de tarım sektörünün üretimdeki payı ile verimlilik göstergeleri arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Bu bağlamda, 1991-2022 yılları arasındaki değişkenler kullanılarak tarım sektörü için işgücü verimliliği, enerji verimliliği ve karbondioksit yoğunluğu oluşturulmuş ve bunların tarım sektörü üzerindeki etkileri araştırılmıştır. Serilerin karma durağanlığı nedeniyle ARDL yöntemi seçilmiştir. Sonuçlar, değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığını doğrulamaktadır. Ayrıca, uzun vadeli tahmin sonuçlarına göre, işgücü ve enerji verimliliği tarımın üretimdeki payını olumlu yönde etkilerken, emisyon yoğunluğu olumsuz bir etki göstermektedir. Bulgular, tarım sektörünün ve Türkiye'de yaşanan yapısal dönüşümün verimlilik göstergeleri ile iklim ve çevre koşullarından etkilendiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between the share of the agricultural sector in production and productivity indicators in Türkiye. In this context, labor productivity, energy efficiency, and carbon dioxide intensity for the agricultural sector were constructed using variables from 1991-2022, and their effects on the agricultural sector were investigated. Due to the mixed stationarity of the series, the ARDL method was chosen. The results confirm the existence of a cointegration relationship between the variables. Furthermore, according to long-term estimation results, labor and energy efficiency positively affect the share of agriculture in production, while emission intensity suggests a negative impact. The findings reveal that the agricultural sector and the structural transformation experienced in Türkiye are influenced by productivity indicators and climate and environmental conditions.

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