BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

Tourism and economic growth relationship in developing countries: Dynamic panel data analysis

Yıl 2010, Cilt: 21 Sayı: 2, 255 - 265, 01.12.2010

Ozan Bahar Kurtuluş Bozkurt

Öz

The aim of this study is to analyse whether there is a positive relationship between tourism sector and economic growth in the long run using dynamic panel data analysis in devoloping countries. A panel data set was set up for 21 countries, including Turkey between 1998-2005 and two steps analysis have been done. The results of the study shows that there is a positive relationship between tourism and economic growth in developing countries and %1 increase in toruism incomes had led to %2.825 economic growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

economic growth tourism developing countries tourism sector dynamic panel data analysis econometric analysis gmm system estimation GMM estimation

Kaynakça

  • Anderson, T. W. ve Cheng H. (1981). Estimation of Dynamic Models with Error Components, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76 (375): 598–606
  • Arellano, M. ve Olympia B. (1995). Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models, Journal of Econometrics, 68 (1): 29–51
  • Arellano, M. ve Stephen B. (1991). Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations, Review of Economic Studies, 58 (2): 277–297
  • Arellano, M. (2003). Panel Data Econometrics. Oxford University Pres. New-York
  • Bahar, O. (2006). Turizm Sektörünün Türkiye’nin Ekonomik Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkisi: Var Analizi Yaklaşımı, Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 13 (2): 137–150
  • Bahar, O. (2008). Turizmin Yoksulluğu Önlemedeki Etkisi ve Mikro Kredi Sistemi, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 45 (523): 79–93
  • Bahar, O. ve Kozak M. (2008). Tourism Economics Concepts and Practices. New York: Nova Science Publishers Inc
  • Balaguer, J. ve Jorda, M.C. (2002). Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: the Spanish Case, Applied Economics, 34: 877-884
  • Blundell, R. ve Steven B. (1998). Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models, Journal of Econometrics, 87 (1): 115-143
  • Blundell, R., Steven B. ve Frank W. (2000). Estimation in Dynamic Panel Data Models: Improving on the Performance of the Standard GMM Estimators, The Institute for Fiscal Studies Working Paper, 2000/12
  • Bozkurt, K. (2007). İçsel Büyüme Modelleri Bağlamında Türk İmalat Sanayinde Teknolojik Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 44 (513): 64-74
  • Bozkurt, K. (2008). Türk İmalat Sanayisinde Teknolojik Gelişme ve İhracat Performansı, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 45 (522): 91-103
  • Brau, R., Lanza, A., ve Pigliaru, F. (2003). How Fast are the Tourism Countries Growing? The Cross-Country Evidence, http://www.feem. it/web/activ/_wp.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 04 Ocak 2010)
  • Campos, C. ve Sequeira, T.N. (2005). Tourism and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Approach. International Conference: Theoretical Advances in Tourism Economics, University of Évora, Portugal. 18-19 March 2005
  • Chen, C. ve Chiou-Wei, S.Z. (2009). Tourism Expansion, Tourism Uncertainty and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Taiwan and Korea, Tourism Management, 30: 812–818 Doornik, J. A. ve David F. H. (2001). Econometric Modeling Using PcGive 10 Volume III. Timberlake Consultants Ltd.. London
  • Dristakis, N. (2004). Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece Using Causality Analysis, Tourism Economics, 10 (3): 305–316
  • Durbarry, R. (2004). Tourism and Economic Growth: the Case of Mauritius, Tourism Economics, 10: 389-401
  • Dünya Bankası İstatistikî Veri Tabanı (WDI). http: / / w e b . w o r l d b a n k . o r g / W B S I T E / E X T E R N A L / D ATA S TAT I S T I C S / 0 , , m e n u P K : 2 3 2 5 9 9 ~ p a g e P K : 64133170~piPK:64133498~theSitePK:239419,00.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 04 Ocak 2010)
  • Fayissa, B., Nsiah, C. ve Tadasse, B. (2008). The Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth and Development in Africa, Tourism Economics, 14 (4): 807-818
  • Gökovalı, U. ve Bahar, O. (2006). Contribution of Tourism to Economic Growth in Mediterrranean Countries: A Panel Data Approach, Anatolia An International Journal of Tourism And Hospitality Research, 17 (2): 155–168
  • Greene, W. H. (2000). Econometric Analysis. Prentice Hall. New Jarsey
  • Gündüz, L. ve Hatemi-J, A. (2005). Is the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Turkey? Applied Economics Letters, 12: 499–504
  • Hawkins, D.E. ve Mann, S. (2007). The World Bank’s Role in Tourism Development, Annals of Tourism Research, 34 (2): 348–363
  • Hazari, B.R. ve Sgro, P.M. (1995). Tourism and Growth in a Dynamic Model of Trade, The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 4 (2): 243-252
  • Hodur, N.M. ve Ceistritz, F.L. (2007). Estimating the Economic Impact of Event Tourism: A Review of Issues and Methods, Journal of Convention & Event Tourism, 8 (4): 63–79
  • Hong, W.C. (2009). Global Competitiveness Measurement for the Tourism Sector, Current Issues in Tourism, 12 (2): 105–132
  • Jimenez, S.C. (2006). Tourism and Economic Growth at Regional Level: The Cases of Spain and Italy. 46th Congress of the European Regional Science Association
  • Kasman, S.K. ve Kasman, A. (2004). Turizm Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik İlişkisi, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 220: 122–131
  • Katırcıoglu, S.T. (2009). Revisiting the Tourism-Led-Growth Hypothesis for Turkey Using the Bounds Test and Johansen Approach for Cointegration, Tourism Management, 30: 17–20
  • Kim, H. J., Chen, M.H. ve Jang, S.S. (2006). Tourism Expansion and Economic Development: The Case of Taiwan, Tourism Management, 27: 925–933
  • Lau, E., Oh, S.L. ve Hu, S.S. (2008). Tourist Arrivals and Economic Growth in Sarawak. http://mpra.ub.unimuenchen
  • de/9888/, (Erişim Tarihi: 23 Aralık 2010)
  • Lee, C.C ve Chang, C.P. (2008). Tourism Development and Economic Growth: A Closer Look at Panels, Tourism Management, 29: 180–192
  • Liang, C., Duo, R. ve Wang, Q. (2004). Impact of Market-Oriented Policies on China’s International Tourism and Regional Economic Development, Services Marketing Quarterly, 26 (1): 19-34
  • Martin, J.L., Morales, N.M. ve Scarpa, R. (2004). Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach. http: //www. feem. it/ Feem /Pub /Publications/ WPapers/default.htm. (Erişim Tarihi: 27 Nisan 2005)
  • Modeste, N.C. (1995). The Impact of Growth in the Tourism Sector on Economic Development: the Experience of Selected Caribbean Countries, Economia Internazionale, 48: 375-385
  • Nadkarni, S. (2008). Knowledge Creation, Retention, Exchange, Devolution, Interpretation and Treatment (K-CREDIT) as an Economic Growth Driver in Pro-Poor Tourism, Current Issues in Tourism, 11 (5): 456–472
  • Narayan, P.K. (2004). Economic Impact of Tourism on Fiji’s Economy: Empirical Evidence from the Computable General Equilibrium Model, Tourism Economics, 10 (4): 419-433
  • Oh, C. (2005). The Contribution of Tourism Development to Economic Growth in the Korean Economy, Tourism Management, 26: 39-44
  • Oki, T, Kawate, K. ve Toyama, A. (1997). Asia’s Economic Development and the Role of Transport, Telecommunications and Tourism, Transport Reviews, 17 (4): 311–353
  • Proença, S. ve Soukiazi, E. (2008). Tourism as an Economic Growth Factor: a Case Study for Southern European Countries, Tourism Economics, 14 (4): 791–806
  • Sequeiraa, T.N. ve Nunes, P.M. (2008). Does Tourism Influence Economic Growth? A Dynamic Panel Data Approach, Applied Economics, 40 (18): 2431–2441
  • Sinclair, M. T. (1998). Tourism and Economic Development: A Survey, The Journal of Development Studies, 34: 1–51
  • Tang, C.H. ve Jang, S.S. (2009). The Tourism–Economy Causality in the United States: A Sub-Industry Level Examination, Tourism Management, 30: 553–558
  • Vanegas, M. ve Croes, R.R. (2003). Growth, Development and Tourism in a Small Economy: Evidence from Aruba, The International Journal of Tourism Research, 5 (5): 315-330
  • Wilkerson, C. (2003). Travel and Tourism: An Overlooked Industry in the U.S. and Tenth District, Economic Review - Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 88 (3): 45–71
  • Witt, S.F. ve Tuner, L.W. (2003). Trends and Forecasts for Inbound Tourism to China, Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 13 (1): 97 -107
  • WTO (2002). Tourism and Poverty Alleviation. Madrid, Spain
  • WTO (2005). Tourism, Microfinance and Poverty Alleviation. Madrid, Spain
  • WTTC (2009). The 2009 Travel & Tourism Economic Research
  • Londra. United Kingdom
  • Yavuz, N.Ç. (2006). Türkiye’de Turizm Gelirlerinin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisinin Testi: Yapısal Kırılma ve Nedensellik Analizi, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 7 (2): 162–171
  • Yıldırım, J. ve Öcal, N. (2004). Tourism and Economic Growth in Turkey, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 15: (52–53): 131–141.

Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde turizm-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Dinamik panel veri analizi

Yıl 2010, Cilt: 21 Sayı: 2, 255 - 265, 01.12.2010

Ozan Bahar Kurtuluş Bozkurt

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, dinamik panel veri analizi yöntemi kullanarak GOÜ turizm sektörü ile ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemde herhangi bir pozitif ilişkinin olup olmadığını analiz etmektir. Bu bağlamda; Türkiye'nin de içerisinde yer aldığı gelişmekte olan 21 ülke için 1998–2005 dönemini kapsayan bir panel veri seti oluşturulmuş ve İki Aşamalı GMM-Sistem analizi yapılmıştır. Yapılan analiz sonucunda GOÜ'ler açısından turizm ve ekonomik büyüme arasında pozitif ve anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilmiş, turizm gelirlerindeki %1'lik bir artışın uzun dönemde ekonomik büyüme üzerinde %2,825'lik bir artışa yol açtığı saptanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

ekonomik büyüme turizm gelişmekte olan ülkeler turizm sektörü dinamik panel veri analizi ekonometrik analizler gmm sistem kestirimi GMM kestirimi

Kaynakça

  • Anderson, T. W. ve Cheng H. (1981). Estimation of Dynamic Models with Error Components, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76 (375): 598–606
  • Arellano, M. ve Olympia B. (1995). Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models, Journal of Econometrics, 68 (1): 29–51
  • Arellano, M. ve Stephen B. (1991). Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations, Review of Economic Studies, 58 (2): 277–297
  • Arellano, M. (2003). Panel Data Econometrics. Oxford University Pres. New-York
  • Bahar, O. (2006). Turizm Sektörünün Türkiye’nin Ekonomik Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkisi: Var Analizi Yaklaşımı, Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 13 (2): 137–150
  • Bahar, O. (2008). Turizmin Yoksulluğu Önlemedeki Etkisi ve Mikro Kredi Sistemi, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 45 (523): 79–93
  • Bahar, O. ve Kozak M. (2008). Tourism Economics Concepts and Practices. New York: Nova Science Publishers Inc
  • Balaguer, J. ve Jorda, M.C. (2002). Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: the Spanish Case, Applied Economics, 34: 877-884
  • Blundell, R. ve Steven B. (1998). Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models, Journal of Econometrics, 87 (1): 115-143
  • Blundell, R., Steven B. ve Frank W. (2000). Estimation in Dynamic Panel Data Models: Improving on the Performance of the Standard GMM Estimators, The Institute for Fiscal Studies Working Paper, 2000/12
  • Bozkurt, K. (2007). İçsel Büyüme Modelleri Bağlamında Türk İmalat Sanayinde Teknolojik Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 44 (513): 64-74
  • Bozkurt, K. (2008). Türk İmalat Sanayisinde Teknolojik Gelişme ve İhracat Performansı, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 45 (522): 91-103
  • Brau, R., Lanza, A., ve Pigliaru, F. (2003). How Fast are the Tourism Countries Growing? The Cross-Country Evidence, http://www.feem. it/web/activ/_wp.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 04 Ocak 2010)
  • Campos, C. ve Sequeira, T.N. (2005). Tourism and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Approach. International Conference: Theoretical Advances in Tourism Economics, University of Évora, Portugal. 18-19 March 2005
  • Chen, C. ve Chiou-Wei, S.Z. (2009). Tourism Expansion, Tourism Uncertainty and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Taiwan and Korea, Tourism Management, 30: 812–818 Doornik, J. A. ve David F. H. (2001). Econometric Modeling Using PcGive 10 Volume III. Timberlake Consultants Ltd.. London
  • Dristakis, N. (2004). Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece Using Causality Analysis, Tourism Economics, 10 (3): 305–316
  • Durbarry, R. (2004). Tourism and Economic Growth: the Case of Mauritius, Tourism Economics, 10: 389-401
  • Dünya Bankası İstatistikî Veri Tabanı (WDI). http: / / w e b . w o r l d b a n k . o r g / W B S I T E / E X T E R N A L / D ATA S TAT I S T I C S / 0 , , m e n u P K : 2 3 2 5 9 9 ~ p a g e P K : 64133170~piPK:64133498~theSitePK:239419,00.html, (Erişim Tarihi: 04 Ocak 2010)
  • Fayissa, B., Nsiah, C. ve Tadasse, B. (2008). The Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth and Development in Africa, Tourism Economics, 14 (4): 807-818
  • Gökovalı, U. ve Bahar, O. (2006). Contribution of Tourism to Economic Growth in Mediterrranean Countries: A Panel Data Approach, Anatolia An International Journal of Tourism And Hospitality Research, 17 (2): 155–168
  • Greene, W. H. (2000). Econometric Analysis. Prentice Hall. New Jarsey
  • Gündüz, L. ve Hatemi-J, A. (2005). Is the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Turkey? Applied Economics Letters, 12: 499–504
  • Hawkins, D.E. ve Mann, S. (2007). The World Bank’s Role in Tourism Development, Annals of Tourism Research, 34 (2): 348–363
  • Hazari, B.R. ve Sgro, P.M. (1995). Tourism and Growth in a Dynamic Model of Trade, The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 4 (2): 243-252
  • Hodur, N.M. ve Ceistritz, F.L. (2007). Estimating the Economic Impact of Event Tourism: A Review of Issues and Methods, Journal of Convention & Event Tourism, 8 (4): 63–79
  • Hong, W.C. (2009). Global Competitiveness Measurement for the Tourism Sector, Current Issues in Tourism, 12 (2): 105–132
  • Jimenez, S.C. (2006). Tourism and Economic Growth at Regional Level: The Cases of Spain and Italy. 46th Congress of the European Regional Science Association
  • Kasman, S.K. ve Kasman, A. (2004). Turizm Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik İlişkisi, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 220: 122–131
  • Katırcıoglu, S.T. (2009). Revisiting the Tourism-Led-Growth Hypothesis for Turkey Using the Bounds Test and Johansen Approach for Cointegration, Tourism Management, 30: 17–20
  • Kim, H. J., Chen, M.H. ve Jang, S.S. (2006). Tourism Expansion and Economic Development: The Case of Taiwan, Tourism Management, 27: 925–933
  • Lau, E., Oh, S.L. ve Hu, S.S. (2008). Tourist Arrivals and Economic Growth in Sarawak. http://mpra.ub.unimuenchen
  • de/9888/, (Erişim Tarihi: 23 Aralık 2010)
  • Lee, C.C ve Chang, C.P. (2008). Tourism Development and Economic Growth: A Closer Look at Panels, Tourism Management, 29: 180–192
  • Liang, C., Duo, R. ve Wang, Q. (2004). Impact of Market-Oriented Policies on China’s International Tourism and Regional Economic Development, Services Marketing Quarterly, 26 (1): 19-34
  • Martin, J.L., Morales, N.M. ve Scarpa, R. (2004). Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach. http: //www. feem. it/ Feem /Pub /Publications/ WPapers/default.htm. (Erişim Tarihi: 27 Nisan 2005)
  • Modeste, N.C. (1995). The Impact of Growth in the Tourism Sector on Economic Development: the Experience of Selected Caribbean Countries, Economia Internazionale, 48: 375-385
  • Nadkarni, S. (2008). Knowledge Creation, Retention, Exchange, Devolution, Interpretation and Treatment (K-CREDIT) as an Economic Growth Driver in Pro-Poor Tourism, Current Issues in Tourism, 11 (5): 456–472
  • Narayan, P.K. (2004). Economic Impact of Tourism on Fiji’s Economy: Empirical Evidence from the Computable General Equilibrium Model, Tourism Economics, 10 (4): 419-433
  • Oh, C. (2005). The Contribution of Tourism Development to Economic Growth in the Korean Economy, Tourism Management, 26: 39-44
  • Oki, T, Kawate, K. ve Toyama, A. (1997). Asia’s Economic Development and the Role of Transport, Telecommunications and Tourism, Transport Reviews, 17 (4): 311–353
  • Proença, S. ve Soukiazi, E. (2008). Tourism as an Economic Growth Factor: a Case Study for Southern European Countries, Tourism Economics, 14 (4): 791–806
  • Sequeiraa, T.N. ve Nunes, P.M. (2008). Does Tourism Influence Economic Growth? A Dynamic Panel Data Approach, Applied Economics, 40 (18): 2431–2441
  • Sinclair, M. T. (1998). Tourism and Economic Development: A Survey, The Journal of Development Studies, 34: 1–51
  • Tang, C.H. ve Jang, S.S. (2009). The Tourism–Economy Causality in the United States: A Sub-Industry Level Examination, Tourism Management, 30: 553–558
  • Vanegas, M. ve Croes, R.R. (2003). Growth, Development and Tourism in a Small Economy: Evidence from Aruba, The International Journal of Tourism Research, 5 (5): 315-330
  • Wilkerson, C. (2003). Travel and Tourism: An Overlooked Industry in the U.S. and Tenth District, Economic Review - Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 88 (3): 45–71
  • Witt, S.F. ve Tuner, L.W. (2003). Trends and Forecasts for Inbound Tourism to China, Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 13 (1): 97 -107
  • WTO (2002). Tourism and Poverty Alleviation. Madrid, Spain
  • WTO (2005). Tourism, Microfinance and Poverty Alleviation. Madrid, Spain
  • WTTC (2009). The 2009 Travel & Tourism Economic Research
  • Londra. United Kingdom
  • Yavuz, N.Ç. (2006). Türkiye’de Turizm Gelirlerinin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisinin Testi: Yapısal Kırılma ve Nedensellik Analizi, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 7 (2): 162–171
  • Yıldırım, J. ve Öcal, N. (2004). Tourism and Economic Growth in Turkey, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 15: (52–53): 131–141.
Toplam 53 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Hakem Denetimli Makaleler
Yazarlar

Ozan Bahar Bu kişi benim

Kurtuluş Bozkurt Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Aralık 2010
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2010 Cilt: 21 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Bahar, O., & Bozkurt, K. (2010). Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde turizm-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Dinamik panel veri analizi. Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 21(2), 255-265.
AMA Bahar O, Bozkurt K. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde turizm-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Dinamik panel veri analizi. Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi. Aralık 2010;21(2):255-265.
Chicago Bahar, Ozan, ve Kurtuluş Bozkurt. “Gelişmekte Olan ülkelerde Turizm-Ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi”. Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi 21, sy. 2 (Aralık 2010): 255-65.
EndNote Bahar O, Bozkurt K (01 Aralık 2010) Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde turizm-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Dinamik panel veri analizi. Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi 21 2 255–265.
IEEE O. Bahar ve K. Bozkurt, “Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde turizm-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Dinamik panel veri analizi”, Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, c. 21, sy. 2, ss. 255–265, 2010.
ISNAD Bahar, Ozan - Bozkurt, Kurtuluş. “Gelişmekte Olan ülkelerde Turizm-Ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi”. Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi 21/2 (Aralık 2010), 255-265.
JAMA Bahar O, Bozkurt K. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde turizm-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Dinamik panel veri analizi. Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi. 2010;21:255–265.
MLA Bahar, Ozan ve Kurtuluş Bozkurt. “Gelişmekte Olan ülkelerde Turizm-Ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi”. Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, c. 21, sy. 2, 2010, ss. 255-6.
Vancouver Bahar O, Bozkurt K. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde turizm-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Dinamik panel veri analizi. Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi. 2010;21(2):255-6.