ABD Ticaret Politikasındaki Değişim: Hegemonik İstikrar Teorisi Açıklama Kapasitesine Sahip mi?

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 33 Sayı: 4, 1345 - 1366, 25.10.2019

Gülşen Aydın

Öz

Bu makale 19. Yüzyıldan bugüne Amerika
Birleşik Devletleri (ABD)’nin dış ticaret politikasına odaklanmaktadır.
Çalışmanın amacı zaman içinde ABD’nin dış ticaret politikalarının neden
değiştiğini açıklamak ve Hegemonik İstikrar Teorisi’nin bu değişimi açıklama
kapasitesini test etmektir. Makale ilk olarak Hegemonik İstikrar Teorisi’nin
hegemonların uluslararası ticaret politikası ile ilgili temel görüşlerini ele
alacaktır. Teorinin bir hegemonun hegemonyasının değişik dönemlerinde ticaret
politikaları ile ilgili tartıştıklarına değinildikten sonra, ABD hegemonyasının
değişik dönemleri incelenecektir. Trump döneminde izlenilen ticaret politikası
da özellikle irdelenecektir. Hegemonik İstikrar Teorisinin ABD’nin ticaret
politikasındaki değişimleri ne derece açıklayabildiği eleştirel olarak
değerlendirilecektir. Çalışma temel olarak, Hegemonik İstikrar Teorisi’nin
ABD’nin ticaret politikasındaki değişimi bir dereceye kadar açıklayabildiğini,
bu değişiklikleri tam anlamıyla açıklayabilmek için ABD’nin iç politika
dinamiklerini incelemenin gerekli olduğu sonucuna varmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (ABD), Ticaret Politikaları, Hegemonik İstikrar Teorisi, Serbest Ticaret, Korumacılık, Trump

The Ebb and Flow in the US Trade Policy: Does The Hegemonic Stability Theory Have Explanatory Power?

Öz

This article focuses on the trade
policy of the United States (US) from the end of the 19th century until today.
It aims to account for the ebb and flow in the trade policy of the US over time
and test the explanatory power of the Hegemonic Stability Theory (HST) to explain
this change. The study first sheds light on the main premises of the HST on the
trade policy of hegemons. After discussing what the theory says for the trade
policy of a hegemonic power in different periods of its hegemony, the study
focuses on different periods of the US hegemony. A special focus is given to
the US trade policy under Trump. A critical examination on the HST is provided
by exploring how the different arguments of the theory perform when they meet
the reality of changes in US trade policy over time. As a concluding remark,
the study argues that although the HST can account for the changes in the US
trade policy to some extent, there is the need to go beyond it and to focus on
the dynamics of the US domestic politics as well to understand the trade policy
of Washington in its fullest sense.

Anahtar Kelimeler

The United States (US), Trade Policy, Hegemonic Stability Theory, Free Trade, Protectionism, Trump

Kaynakça

• Acharya, A. (2018), The End of American World Order, Polity Press, Cambridge.
• Bailey, M. A., Goldstein, J. ve Weingast, B. R. (1997), “The Institutional Roots of American Trade Policy: Politics, Coalitions, and International Trade”, World Politics, 49(3), ss. 309-338.
• Baldwin, R. E. (1984), “The Changing Nature of US Trade Policy since World War II”, R. E. Baldwin and A. O. Krueger (der.), The Structure and Evolution of Recent US Trade Policy, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, ss. 5-32.
• Bergsten, C. (2002), “Renaissance for U.S. Trade Policy”, Foreign Affairs, 81(6), ss. 86-98.
• Bloomberg ve Curran, E. (2019), http://fortune.com/2019/02/12/trump-xi-china-trade-war/ (2.5.2019).
• Bown, C. P. ve Zhang, E. (2019), https://piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/measuring-trumps-2018-trade-protection-five-takeaways (2.3.2019).
• Crafts, N., ve Fearon, P. (2010), “Lessons from the 1930s Great Depression”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 26(3), ss. 285-317.
• De Graaff, N. ve Van Apeldoorn, B. (2018), “US–China Relations and the Liberal World Order: Contending Elites, Colliding Visions?”, International Affairs, 94(1), ss. 113-131.
• Eckes, A. E. (2000), Revisiting US Trade Policy: Decisions in Perspective, Ohio University Press, Ohio.
• Eckes, A. E. (2004), “U.S. Trade History”, W. A. Lovett, A. E. Eckes ve R. L. Brinkman (der.), US Trade Policy: History, Theory and the WTO, M. E. Sharpe, New York, ss. 36-93.
• Eichengreen, B. ve Irwin, D. A. (2010), “The Slide to Protectionism in the Great Depression: Who Succumbed and Why?”, The Journal of Economic History, 70(4), ss. 871-897.
• Evenett, S. J., & Meier, M. (2008), “An Interim Assessment of the US Trade Policy of Competitive Liberalization”, World Economy, 31(1), ss. 31-66.
• Feinberg, R. E. (2003), “The Political Economy of United States’ Free Trade Arrangements”, World Economy, 26(7), ss. 1019-1040.
• Frieden, J. (1988), “Sectoral Conflict and Foreign Economic Policy, 1914–1940”, International Organization, 42(1), ss. 59-90.
• Garrett, C. S. (2018), “Constructing Narratives of Global Order: The Obama Presidency, TPP, TTIP, and the Contested Politics Of Geoeconomics”, Atlantic Studies, 16 (2), ss.261-281.
• Gills, B. K., & Patomäki, H. O. (2017), “Trumponomics and the ‘Post-Hegemonic’ World”, Real-World Economics Review, 2017 (79), ss. 91-107.
• Gilpin, R. (1987). The Political Economy of International Relations. Princeton University Press, Princeton.
• Gilpin, R. ve Gilpin, J. M. (2001), Global Political Economy: Understanding the International Economic Order, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
• Goldstein, J., ve Gowa, J. (2002), “US National Power and the Post-War Trading Regime”, World Trade Review, 1(2), ss. 153-170.
• Goldstein, J. S. ve Pevehouse, J. C. (2013), International Relations, Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River.
• Grimwade, N. (1996), International Trade Policy: a Contemporary Analysis, Routledge, Londra ve New York.
• Ikenberry, G. J. (2011), Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation Of The American World Order (Cilt 128), Princeton University Press, Princeton.
• Ikenberry, G. J. (2017). The plot against American foreign policy: Can the liberal order survive. Foreign Affairs, 96 (2), 2-9.
• Irwin, D. A. (1998), “From Smoot-Hawley to Reciprocal Trade Agreements: Changing the Course of U.S. Trade Policy in the 1930s”, M. D. Bordo, C. Goldin ve E. N. White, The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, ss. 325-352.
• Irwin, D. A., & Kroszner, R. S. (1999), “Interests, Institutions, and Ideology in Securing Policy Change: The Republican Conversion to Trade Liberalization after Smoot-Hawley”, The Journal of Law and Economics, 42(2), ss. 643-674.
• Irwin, D. A. (2016), “The Truth About Trade”, Foreign Affairs, 95(4), ss. 84-95.
• Kindleberger, C. P. (1986), The World in Depression, 1929–1939 (Revised and Enlarged Edition), University of California Press, Berkeley ve Los Angeles.
• Kindleberger, C. P. (1981), “Dominance and Leadership in the International Economy: Exploitation, Public Goods, and Free Rides”, International Studies Quarterly, 25 (2), ss. 242-254.
• Koty, A. C. (2018), https://www.china-briefing.com/news/us-china-trade-truce-90-days-g20-summit/ (20.2.2019).Krasner, S. D. (1976), “State Power and the Structure of International Trade”, World Politics, 28(3), ss. 317-347.
• Krasner, S. D. (1976), “State Power and the Structure of International Trade”, World Politics, 28(3), ss. 317-347.
• Layne, C. (2012), “US Decline”, M. Cox ve D. Stokes (der.), US Foreign Policy, Oxford University Press, Oxford, ss. 410-421.
• Layne, C. (2018), “The US–Chinese Power Shift and the End of the Pax Americana”, International Affairs, 94(1), ss. 89-111.
• Levinson – King, R. and Palumbo, D. (2018, December 3), https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45415861 (21.3.2019).
• Lindert, P. (2000), “US Foreign Trade and Trade Policy in the Twentieth Century”, Stanley L. Engerman ve R. E. Gallman (der.), The Cambridge Economic History of the United States (3. Cilt), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, ss. 407-462.
• Mastanduno, M. (2011), “System Maker and Privilege Taker: US Power and the International Political Economy”, G. J. Ikenbery, M. Mastanduno ve W. C. Wohlforth (der.), International Relations Theory and the Consequences of Unipolarity, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, ss. 140-178.
• McKeown, T. J. (1983), “HST and 19th Century Tariff Levels in Europe”, International Organization, 37(1), ss. 73-91.
• Meyer, F. V. (1978). International Trade Policy, Routledge, Londra ve New York.
• Milner, H. V. (1998), “International Political Economy: Beyond Hegemonic Stability”, Foreign Policy, ss. 112-123.
• Mount, I. (2016), http://fortune.com/2016/07/25/donald-trump-free-trade-wto/ (5.3.2019).
• Noland, M., Robinson, S. ve Moran, T. (2016), “Impact of Clinton’s and Trump’s Trade Proposals”, M. Noland, G. C. Hufbauer, S. Robinson ve T. Moran (der.), Assessing Trade Agendas in the US Presidential Campaign, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, ss. 17-40.
• Noland, M. (2018), “US Trade Policy in the Trump Administration”, Asian Economic Policy Review, 13(2), ss. 262-278.
• Nye Jr, J. S. (2004), Power in the Global Information Age: From Realism to Globalization, Routledge, Londra ve New York.
• Nye Jr, J. S. (2019). The Rise and Fall of American Hegemony from Wilson to Trump, International Affairs, 95(1), ss. 63-80.
• Office of the United States Trade Representative (2018), https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Reports/2018/AR/2018%20Annual%20Report%20FINAL.PDF (23.2.2019).
• Rhodes, C. (1993), Reciprocity, US Trade Policy, and the GATT Regime, Cornell University Press, New York.
• Stein, A. A. (1984), “The Hegemon's Dilemma: Great Britain, the United States, and the International Economic Order”, International Organization, 38(2), ss. 355-386.
• Stokes, D. (2018), “Trump, American Hegemony and the Future of the Liberal International Order”, International Affairs, 94(1), ss. 133-150.
• The World Trade Organization, https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news18_e/dsb_19nov18_e.htm (3.3.2019).
• Toye, R. (2012), “The International Trade Organization”, A. Narlikar, M. Daunton and R. M. Stern (der.), The Oxford Handbook On The World Trade Organization, Oxford University Press, Oxford, ss. 351-410.
• Webb, M. C. ve Krasner, S. D. (1989), “HST: an Empirical Assessment”. Review of International Studies, 15(2), ss. 183-198.
• Wong, Dorcas and Koty, Alexander (2019), https://www.china-briefing.com/news/the-us-china-trade-war-a-timeline/, (14.8.2019).