The Effect of Artificial Intelligence Investments on Economıc Development: Panel Data Analysis

Öz

In the 21st century, the relationship between economic development and technological innovation is becoming increasingly complex. In recent years, with the emergence of artificial intelligence as a pioneer and leader in technological innovation and its increasing use in many fields, unemployment is rising on the one hand, while on the other hand, unit costs are decreasing due to increased productivity. This dilemma has become a question that needs to be explored, especially for countries with technologies that make intensive use of artificial intelligence. To this end, this study examined the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) investments on economic development in Germany, the United States, China, France, South Korea, India, Italy, and Japan for the period 2012-2023 using panel data methods. The Human Development Index (HDI) is used as an indicator of economic development in the models developed for the analysis, while AI investments are treated as the main independent variable. Per capita income (PCI), inflation (INF), and foreign direct investment (FDI) are included in the model as control variables. Second-generation panel methods, such as the Pesaran– Yamagata homogeneity test, Pesaran CD tests, and the CIPS unit root test, are applied in the study, and long- and short-term relationships are analyzed using the CS-ARDL model. The research indicates that investments in AI have a beneficial and substantial effect on HDI over time. However, INF was found to have a negative impact on the HDI. It has been observed that the FDI variable has negative effects contrary to expectations. The heterogeneity of the variables' parameters suggests that the impact of AI investments on development varies across countries. In conclusion, AI investments appear to be a supportive element for economic development, but the appropriate macroeconomic and institutional framework must be provided for the sustainability of this impact.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Artificial intelligence investments
• Economic development
• Human Development Index
• Panel data analysis

YAPAY ZEKA YATIRIMLARININ EKONOMİK KALKINMAYA ETKİSİ: PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Öz

21. yüzyılda, ekonomik kalkınma ile teknolojik inovasyon arasındaki ilişki giderek daha karmaşık hale gelmektedir. Son yıllarda, teknolojik inovasyonun öncüsü ve lideri olarak yapay zekanın ortaya çıkması ve birçok alanda kullanımının artmasıyla, bir yandan işsizlik artarken, diğer yandan verimlilik artışı nedeniyle birim maliyetler düşmektedir. Bu ikilem, özellikle yapay zekayı yoğun olarak kullanan teknolojilere sahip ülkeler için araştırılması gereken bir soru haline gelmiştir. Bu amaçla, bu çalışmada panel veri yöntemleri kullanılarak 2012-2023 dönemi için Almanya, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri, Çin, Fransa, Güney Kore, Hindistan, İtalya ve Japonya'da yapay zeka (AI) yatırımlarının ekonomik kalkınma üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Analiz için geliştirilen modellerde ekonomik kalkınmanın göstergesi olarak İnsani Gelişme Endeksi (HDI) kullanılırken, AI yatırımları ana bağımsız değişken olarak ele alınmıştır. Kişi başına gelir (PCI), enflasyon (INF) ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (FDI) kontrol değişkenleri olarak modele dahil edilmiştir. Pesaran–Yamagata homojenlik testi, Pesaran CD testleri ve CIPS birim kök testi gibi ikinci nesil panel yöntemleri çalışmada uygulanmış ve CS-ARDL modeli kullanılarak uzun ve kısa vadeli ilişkiler analiz edilmiştir. Araştırma, AI yatırımlarının zaman içinde HDI üzerinde yararlı ve önemli bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Ancak, INF'nin HDI üzerinde olumsuz bir etkisi olduğu bulunmuştur. FDI değişkeninin beklentilerin aksine olumsuz etkileri olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Değişkenlerin parametrelerinin heterojenliği, AI yatırımlarının kalkınma üzerindeki etkisinin ülkeler arasında farklılık gösterdiğini göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak, AI yatırımları ekonomik kalkınma için destekleyici bir unsur gibi görünmektedir, ancak bu etkinin sürdürülebilirliği için uygun makroekonomik ve kurumsal çerçeve sağlanmalıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yapay zeka yatırımları
• Ekonomik gelişme
• İnsani Gelişme Endeksi
• Panel veri analizi

Kaynakça

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