bilturk

BİLTÜRK Ekonomi ve İlişkili Çalışmalar Dergisi

2667-5927

Fatih DEYNELİ

10.47103/bilturk.1889529

Cross-Sectional Analysis

Yatay Kesit Analizi

Financial Stress and the Trade Balance in Turkey: Empirical Evidence from Credit and Real Exchange Rate Channels

Türkiye'de Finansal Stres ve Ticaret Dengesi: Kredi ve Reel Döviz Kuru Kanallarından Elde Edilen Ampirik Kanıtlar

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5830-2587

Çetiner

Özgür

Bilecik Şeyh Edebali Üniversitesi

03 26 2026

8 82 118 02 14 2026 03 19 2026

2019

BİLTÜRK Ekonomi ve İlişkili Çalışmalar Dergisi

In this study, the effects of fluctuations and crises in financial markets on the trade balance were analyzed using monthly data from the period 2000–2025. In the model established, the trade balance was treated as the dependent variable, while the Financial Pressure (Stress) Index was used as the primary independent variable to represent stress and fragility in financial markets. In order to explain the mechanisms through which financial stress affects the trade balance, domestic credit and the real effective exchange rate index were included in the model as transmission channels. Empirical findings reveal the existence of a stable equilibrium relationship between the variables in the long term, according to the Maki cointegration test, which allows for multiple structural breaks. The cointegration coefficients obtained show that global uncertainties and financial crises negatively affect the trade balance under structural breaks and cause fluctuations in trade performance. However, the VAR-based impulse-response functions indicate that the impact of external shocks on financial stress and other variables dissipates in the short term, within approximately 2–3 months. On the other hand, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) results estimated based on the VAR model show that financial stress, domestic credit, and exchange rate channels have significant long-term effects on the trade balance. These findings reveal that the trade balance is sensitive not only to short-term shocks but also to the overall health and stability of the financial system. In this context, it is concluded that multidimensional and comprehensive policy measures are needed to limit the negative effects of global financial uncertainty and crises on foreign trade, which strengthen financial stability, direct the credit mechanism in favor of production and exports, and aim to reduce exchange rate volatility.

Bu çalışmada, finansal piyasalardaki dalgalanmalar ve krizlerin dış ticaret dengesi üzerindeki etkileri, 2000–2025 dönemi aylık verileriyle analiz edilmiştir. Modelde dış ticaret dengesi bağımlı değişken, finansal piyasalardaki stres ve kırılganlıkları temsilen Finansal Baskı (Stres) Endeksi temel bağımsız değişken olarak kullanılmıştır. Finansal baskının dış ticaret dengesi üzerindeki etkilerini açıklayabilmek amacıyla, yurt içi krediler ve reel efektif döviz kuru endeksi modele aktarım kanalları olarak dâhil edilmiştir. Ampirik bulgular, çoklu yapısal kırılmalara izin veren “Maki” eşbütünleşme testine göre değişkenler arasında uzun dönemde istikrarlı bir denge ilişkisi vardır. Eşbütünleşme katsayıları, küresel belirsizlikler ve finansal krizlerin yapısal kırılmalar altında dış dengeyi olumsuz etkilediğini ve performansında dalgalanmalara yol açtığını göstermektedir. VAR modeline dayalı etki–tepki fonksiyonları, değişkenlerde meydana gelen dışsal şokların etkisinin kısa vadede, yaklaşık 2–3 aylık bir süre içerisinde sönümlendiğine işaret etmektedir. Öte yandan, VAR modeli temelinde tahmin edilen Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modeli (VECM) sonuçları, finansal baskı, yurt içi krediler ve döviz kuru kanallarının dış ticaret dengesi üzerinde uzun dönemde anlamlı etkiler yarattığını göstermektedir. Bu bulgular, dış ticaret dengesinin yalnızca kısa vadeli şoklara değil, finansal sistemin genel sağlığına ve istikrarına duyarlı olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu çerçevede, küresel finansal belirsizliklerin ve krizlerin dış ticaret üzerindeki olumsuz etkilerini sınırlayabilmek için finansal istikrarı güçlendiren, kredi mekanizmasını üretim ve ihracat lehine yönlendiren ve döviz kuru oynaklığını azaltmayı hedefleyen çok boyutlu ve kapsayıcı politika tedbirlerine ihtiyaç duyulduğu sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır.

Financial Stress Trade Balance Credit Channel Real Effective Exchange Rate Time Series Econometrics

Finansal Stres Dış Ticaret Dengesi Yurt İçi Krediler Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru Zaman Serisi Ekonometrisi

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