Mathematical Modeling and Simulation of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Lagos State, Nigeria

Abstract

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) is regarded as one of the biggest respiratory illness outbursts influencing different nations concurrently including Nigeria and a novel strain of Coronavirus (SARS-CoV 2) has been distinguished as the causative agent. To study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, SEAIQR model is presented. The existence and stability of Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) are established. Numerical evaluation of observed data and model data is fitted using a nonlinear least square method, implemented in Python. Simulations were conducted to further monitor the effect of complaisance with control strategies. It is found that the optimal control shows the effectiveness of control measures (reducing contact rate and usage of mask) when being applied. It is noticed that the best option is to observe social distancing against the use of a mask. Nonetheless, the effective approach is the compliance with both control measures, that is, complaisance with social distancing as well as the utilization of a mask. Hence, it is recommended that there should be educational campaigns on the impact of embracing social distancing, wearing a mask, need to be vaccinated; enforcement and sanctions for non-complaisance with the aforementioned control measures.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Transmission Dynamics
• Coronavirus Disease
• SEAIQR Model
• Mathematical Model
• Control Measures.

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