On the Dynamics of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) with the Impact of Vaccination and Isolation on the Containment of its Spread: A Mathematical Modelling Approach

Abstract

Ebola is a highly contagious and fatal viral disease that has sparked widespread panic and devastation and thus affected global health, the economy, and social dynamics. Hence, a model is formulated to examine the impact of isolation and vaccination on curbing the transmission dynamics of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD). The model's epidemiological viability in a given region was established. Numerical simulations were conducted using MATLAB to examine the effect of vaccination and isolation on curtailing the spread of the Ebola virus disease. The impact of the parameters used in the model on the basic reproduction number and the estimation of the sensitivity of the parameters were also carried out. It is observed that if the rate of symptomatic infected individuals being isolated and vaccinated is high enough, this would reduce the infection rate. Hence, the isolation of infected individuals and efficacious vaccination with a zerowane-off vaccine will help a great deal in curtailing the spread of the Ebola virus disease.

Keywords

• Ebola Virus Disease
• Transmission Dynamics
• Vaccination
• Isolation
• Infectious Disease
• Mathematical Modelling

References

1. [1] World Health Organization. Frequently asked questions on Ebola virus disease, 2016.
2. [2] World Health Organization, WHO strategic response plan: West Africa Ebola Outbreak ISBN: ISBN 978 92 4 150869 8 www.who.int, 2015.
3. [3] World Health Organization, October 2014.
4. [4] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Questions and Answers, 2014.
5. [5] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Ebola virus disease, 2015.
6. [6] Q. Ahman, O. David, A. Chukwuma, N. Ugochukwu and M. Ezike, "Transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease with vaccine, condom use, quarantine, isolation and treatment drug," African Journal of Infectious Diseases, vol. 15, pp. 10-23, 2020.
7. [7] D. Bausch, J. Towner, S. Dowell, F. Kaducu, M. Lukwiya, A. Sanchez, S. Nichol, T. Ksiazek and P. Rollin, "Assessment of the Risk of Ebola Virus Transmission from Bodily Fluids and Fomites," The Journal of Infectious Diseases, vol. 196, pp. S142-S147, 2007.
8. [8] W. Ahmad and M. Abbas, "Effect of quarantine on transmission dynamics of Ebola virus epidemic: a mathematical analysis," The European Physical Journal Plus, vol. 136, 2021.

9. [9] N. Sullivan, Z.-Y. Yang and G. Nabel, "Ebola Virus Pathogenesis: Implications for Vaccines and Therapies," Journal of Virology, vol. 77, pp. 9733-9737, 2003.
10. [10] A. Pandey, K. Atkins, J. Medlock, N. Wenzel, J. Townsend, J. Childs, T. Nyenswah, M. Ndeffo-Mbah and A. Galvani, "Strategies for containing Ebola in West Africa," Science, vol. 346, pp. 991-995, 2014.
11. [11] D. O. Daniel, "Mathematical Model for the Transmission of Covid-19 with Nonlinear Forces of Infection and the Need for Prevention Measure in Nigeria," Journal of Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology, vol. 6, 2020.
12. [12] S. Onitilo, M. Usman, D. Daniel, T. Odule and S. Sanusi, "Modelling the Transmission Dynamics of Cholera Disease with the Impact of Control Strategies in Nigeria," Cankaya University Journal of Science and Engineering, vol. 20, p. 35–52, 2023.
13. [13] S. Onitilo, M. Usman, D. Daniel, O. Odetunde, Z. Ogunwobi, F. Hammed, O. Olubanwo, A. Ajani, A. Sanusi and A. Haruna, "Mathematical Modelling of the Transmission Mechanism of Plamodium Falciparum," Natural Science and Advanced Technology Education, vol. 31, pp. 435-457, 2022.
14. [14] F. Agusto, "Mathematical model of Ebola transmission dynamics with relapse and reinfection," Mathematical Biosciences, vol. 283, pp. 48-59, 2017.
15. [15] C. Althaus, N. Low, E. Musa, F. Shuaib and S. Gsteiger, "Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria: Transmission dynamics and rapid control," Epidemics, vol. 11, pp. 80-84, 2015.
16. [16] N. Lasisi, N. Akinwande, R. Olayiwola, and A. Cole, "Mathematical Model for Ebola Virus Infection in Human with Effectiveness of Drug Usage," Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management, vol. 22, p. 1089, 2018.
17. [17] F. Fasina, A. Shittu, D. Lazarus, O. Tomori, L. Simonsen, C. Viboud, and G. Chowell, "Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria, July to September 2014," Eurosurveillance, vol. 19, 2014.
18. [18] H. Lee, and H. Nishiura, “Sexual transmission and the probability of an end of the Ebola virus disease epidemic,”Journal of Theoretical Biology, vol. 471, pp. 1-12, 2019.
19. [19] A. Rachah, “A mathematical model with isolation for the dynamics of Ebola virus,” Journal of Physics: Conference Series, vol. 1132, p. 012058, 2018.
20. [20] A. Osemwinyen, “Mathematical Modelling of the Transmission Dynamics of Ebola Virus,” Applied and Computational Mathematics, vol. 4, p. 313, 2015.
21. [21] P. Diaz, P. Constantine, K. Kalmbach and E. Jones, “ In A Modified SEIR Model for the Spread of Ebola in Western Africa and Metrics for Resource Allocation,” Applied Mathematics and Computation, vol. 1, 2016.
22. [22] H. Nishiura and G. Chowell, “Early transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD), West Africa, March to August 2014,” Eurosurveillance, vol. 19, 2014.
23. [23] A. Rachah and D. Torres, “Mathematical Modelling, Simulation, and Optimal Control of the 2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa,” Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, vol. 2015, pp. 1-9, 2015.
24. [24] M. Safi and A. Gumel, “Mathematical analysis of a disease transmission model with quarantine, isolation and an imperfect vaccine,” Computers & amp; Mathematics with Applications, vol. 61, pp. 3044-3070, 2011.
25. [25] S. Edward, E. Luseko, D. Ndidi and E. Simanjilo, “Mathematical Modelling of the Transmission Dynamics of Ebola Virus Disease with Control Strategies,”International Journal of Sciences: Basic and Applied Research (IJSBAR), vol. 33, p. 112–130, 2017.
26. [26] R. Abdulrahman and E. H. Al-Allaf, “Interactive Modelling of lost Landmarks – Qishla of Mosul A Case Study,” Diyala Journal of Engineering Sciences, vol. 43, pp. 72-86, 2016.