Araştırma Makalesi

Yıl 2023,
Cilt: 20 Sayı: 1, 35 - 52, 01.05.2023
### Öz

### Kaynakça

- WHO, “Cholera,” World Health Organization, 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.who.int/news- room/fact-sheets/detail/cholera. [accessed 2022].
- WHO, “Cholera,” World Health Organization, 2022. [Online]. Available: www.who.org. [accessed 2022].
- E. H. Kaplan and M. L. Brandeau, “Modeling the AIDS Epidemic: Planning, Policy and Prediction,” Lippincott Williams and Wilkins, 1994.
- N. Ainea, A. Matofali, and M. Mkwizu, “Optimal control analysis of a cholera disease transmission model in Tanzania,” The International Journal of Innovative Research in Science, Engineering and Technology, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 865-872, 2019.
- M. Al-Adydah, A. Mwasa, J. M. Tchuenche, and R. J. Smith, “Modeling cholera disease with education and chlorination,” Journal of Biological Systems, vol. 21, no. 4, 2013.
- A. A. Ayoade, M. O. Ibrahim, O. J. Peter, and F. A. Oguntolu, “On the global stability of cholera model with prevention and control,” Malaysian Journal of Computing, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 28-36, 2018.
- S. Edward, and N. Nyerere, “A mathematical model for the dynamics of cholera with control measures,” Applied and Computational Mathematics, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 53-63, 2015.
- E. A. Bakare, and S. Hoskova-Mayerova, “Optimal control analysis of cholera dynamics in the presence of asymptotic transmission,” Axioms, vol. 10, p. 60, 2021.
- C. Botelho, J. D. Kong, M. Lucien, Z. Shuai, and H. Wang, “A mathematical model for Vibrio-phage interactions,” Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 2688-2712, 2021.
- T. Bakhtiar, “Optimal intervention strategies for cholera outbreak by education and chlorination,” Earth and Environmental Science, vol. 31, no. 1, 2016.
- A. P. Lemos-Paião, C. J. Silva, and D. F. M. Torres, "A cholera mathematical model with vaccination and the biggest outbreak of world’s history," AIMS Mathematics, vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 448-463, 2018.
- J. L. Francisco, R. Marc, B. Jacques, M. Andr´e, M. Helmi, R. Ellen, P. Anne-Laure, T. Brahima, A. Marie, N. Sarala, G. Francesco, G. Maud, P. Jonathan, P. Kathryn, T. Mego, O. David, P. Klaudia, and C. Iza, “Mortality rates during cholera epidemic; haiti; 2010–2011,” Emerging Infectious Diseases, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 410, 2016.
- S. Fatima, I. Krishnarajah, M. Z. Jaffar, and M. B. Adam, “A mathematical model for the control of cholera in Nigeria,” Research Journal of Environmental and Earth Sciences, vol. 6, no. 6, pp. 321-325, 2014. S. Mushayabasa, and C. P. Bhunu, “BioSystems Is HIV infection associated with an increased risk for cholera? Insights from a mathematical model,” Biosystems, vol. 109, no. 2, pp. 203-213, 2012.
- J. Lin, R. Xu, and X. Tian, “Transmission dynamics of cholera with hyperinfectious and hypoinfectious vibrios: mathematical modelling and control strategies,” Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, vol. 16, no. 5, pp. 4339-4358, 2019.
- S. Liao, and J. Wang, “Stability analysis and application of a mathematical cholera model,” Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, vol. 8, pp. 733-752, 2011.
- V. D. Nguyen, N. Screenivasan, E. Lam, T. Ayers, D. Kargbo, F. Dafae, A. Jambai, W. Alemu, A. Kamara, M. Islam, S. Stroika, C. Bopp, R. Quick, E. Mintz, and J. M. Brunkard, “Cholera epidemic associated with consumption of unsafe drinking water and street-vended water-eastern freetown; Sierra Leone; 2012,” The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, vol. 90, no. 3, pp. 518-523, 2014.
- D. S. Mgonja, E. S. Massawe, and O. D. Makinde, “Computational modelling of cholera bacteriophage with treatment,” Open Journal of Epidemiology, vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 172-186, 2015.
- J. Lilje, H. Mosler, and H. Kessely, “Factors determining water treatment behavior for the prevention of cholera in Chad.,” The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, vol. 93, no. 1, pp. 57-65, 2015.
- J. M. Ochoche, “A Mathematical Model for the Dynamics of Cholera with Control Strategy,” International Journal of Science and Technology, vol. 14, no. 9, pp. 212-217, 2013.
- P. Panja, “Optimal control analysis of a cholera epidemic model,” Biophysical Reviews and Letters, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 27-48, 2019.
- K. O. Okosun, M. A. Khan, E. Bonyah, and O. O. Okosun, “Cholera-schistosomiasis coinfection dynamics,” Optimal Control Applications and Methods, vol. 40, no. 4, pp. 703-727, 2019.
- F. Nyabadza, J. M. Aduamah, and J. Mushanyu, “Modelling cholera transmission dynamics in the presence of limited resources,” BMC Research Notes, vol. 12, pp. 1-8, 2019.
- C. Ratchford and J. Wang, "Modeling cholera dynamics at multiple scales: environmental evolution; between-host transmission; and within-host interaction.," Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 782-812, 2019.
- J. Sharma, M. Malakar, M. Soni, and A. Pathak, “Outbreak of cholera in some villages of Boginodi area in Lakhimpur district of Assam,” International Journal of Pharmacy and Biological Sciences, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 450-454, 2013.
- C. Ratchford and J. Wang, “Multi-scale modeling of cholera dynamics in a spatially heterogeneous environment,” Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 948-974, 2020.
- A. Tuite, J. Tien, M. Eisenberg, D. Earn, J. Ma, and D. Fisman, “Cholera epidemic in Haiti: Using a transmission model to explain spatial spread of disease and identify optimal control interventions,” Ann Intern Med, vol. 154, pp. 593-601, 2010.
- G.-Q. Sun, J.-H. Xie, S.-H. Huang, Z. Jin, M.-T. Li, and L. Liu, “Transmission dynamics of cholera: mathematical modeling and control strategies,” Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, vol. 45, pp. 235-244, 2017. C. Yang, and J. Wang, “A cholera transmission model incorporating the impact of medical resources,” Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, vol. 16, no. 5, pp. 5226-5246, 2019.
- C. Song, R. Xu, N. Bai, X. Tian, and J. Lin, “Global dynamics and optimal control of a cholera transmission model with vaccination strategy and multiple pathways,” Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 4210-4224, 2020.
- K. A. Eustace, S. Osman, and M. Wainaina, “Mathematical modelling and analysis of the dynamics of cholera,” Global Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics, vol. 14, no. 9, pp. 1259-1275, 2018.
- M. A. Khan, A. Ali, and L. C. C. e. a. Dennis, “Dynamical behavior of cholera epidemic model with non- linear incidence rate,” Applied Mathematical Sciences, vol. 9, no. 20, pp. 989-1002, 2015.
- N. J. Ezeagu, H. A. Togbenon, and E. Moyo, “Modeling and analysis of cholera dynamics with vaccination,” American Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 1-8, 2019.
- C. T. Codeco, “Endemic and epidemic dynamics of cholera: the role of the aquatic reservoir,” BMC Infectious Diseases, vol. 1, no. 1, 2001.
- D. M. Hartley, J. G. Morris Jr, and D. L. Smith, “Hyperinfectivity: A critical element in the ability of V. cholerae to cause epidemics?,” PLoS Medicine, vol. 3, pp. 0063-0069, 2006.
- R. I. Joh, H. Wang, H. Weiss, and J. S. Weitz, “Dynamics of indirectly transmitted infectious diseases with immunological threshold,” Bull. Math. Biol., vol. 71, pp. 845-862, 2009.
- Z. Mukandavire, S. Liao, J. Wang, H. Gaff, D. Smith, and J. Morris, “Estimating the reproductive numbers for the 2008–2009 cholera outbreaks in Zimbabwe,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 108, pp. 8767-8772, 2011.
- J. H. Tien, and D. J. D. Earn, “Multiple transmission pathways and disease dynamics in a waterborne pathogen model,” Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, vol. 72, no. 6, pp. 1502-1533, 2010.
- R. L. M. Neil an, E. Schaefer, H. Gaff, K. R. Fister, and S. Lenhart, “Modelingoptimal intervention strategiesfor cholera,” Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, vol. 72, pp. 2004-2018, 2010.
- C. Yang, and J. Wang, “On the intrinsic dynamics of bacteria in waterborne infections,” Mathematical Biosciences, vol. 296, pp. 71-81, 2018.
- N. Opoku, and C. Afriyie, “The role of control measures and the environment in the transmission dynamics of cholera,” Abstract and Applied Analysis, Hindawi, vol. 2485979, pp. 16, 2020.

Cholera remains a severe health concern in many developing nations, including Nigeria, and its control remains challenging. Therefore, a mathematical model for the mitigation of cholera disease in Nigeria is developed and analyzed. It includes vital dynamics that examine the impact of environmental sanitation, water body treatment, water hygiene, and therapeutic treatment as mitigation strategies for containing the disease. The impact of control techniques on the diseased population is investigated using numerical simulation. The model was simulated to determine the impacts of hygienic culture on the infected population at no, low, moderate, and high levels of vaccination and treatment, or both. The model under study demonstrates that the cholera pandemic might be eliminated from society with the right mix of preventative measures and determined effort. According to the model used, Nigeria will quickly rid itself of the disease if treatment, water hygiene, and environmental sanitation are highly monitored and improved.

Cholera Modelling Transmission Control Measures Epidemic Reproduction Number

- WHO, “Cholera,” World Health Organization, 2019. [Online]. Available: https://www.who.int/news- room/fact-sheets/detail/cholera. [accessed 2022].
- WHO, “Cholera,” World Health Organization, 2022. [Online]. Available: www.who.org. [accessed 2022].
- E. H. Kaplan and M. L. Brandeau, “Modeling the AIDS Epidemic: Planning, Policy and Prediction,” Lippincott Williams and Wilkins, 1994.
- N. Ainea, A. Matofali, and M. Mkwizu, “Optimal control analysis of a cholera disease transmission model in Tanzania,” The International Journal of Innovative Research in Science, Engineering and Technology, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 865-872, 2019.
- M. Al-Adydah, A. Mwasa, J. M. Tchuenche, and R. J. Smith, “Modeling cholera disease with education and chlorination,” Journal of Biological Systems, vol. 21, no. 4, 2013.
- A. A. Ayoade, M. O. Ibrahim, O. J. Peter, and F. A. Oguntolu, “On the global stability of cholera model with prevention and control,” Malaysian Journal of Computing, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 28-36, 2018.
- S. Edward, and N. Nyerere, “A mathematical model for the dynamics of cholera with control measures,” Applied and Computational Mathematics, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 53-63, 2015.
- E. A. Bakare, and S. Hoskova-Mayerova, “Optimal control analysis of cholera dynamics in the presence of asymptotic transmission,” Axioms, vol. 10, p. 60, 2021.
- C. Botelho, J. D. Kong, M. Lucien, Z. Shuai, and H. Wang, “A mathematical model for Vibrio-phage interactions,” Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 2688-2712, 2021.
- T. Bakhtiar, “Optimal intervention strategies for cholera outbreak by education and chlorination,” Earth and Environmental Science, vol. 31, no. 1, 2016.
- A. P. Lemos-Paião, C. J. Silva, and D. F. M. Torres, "A cholera mathematical model with vaccination and the biggest outbreak of world’s history," AIMS Mathematics, vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 448-463, 2018.
- J. L. Francisco, R. Marc, B. Jacques, M. Andr´e, M. Helmi, R. Ellen, P. Anne-Laure, T. Brahima, A. Marie, N. Sarala, G. Francesco, G. Maud, P. Jonathan, P. Kathryn, T. Mego, O. David, P. Klaudia, and C. Iza, “Mortality rates during cholera epidemic; haiti; 2010–2011,” Emerging Infectious Diseases, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 410, 2016.
- S. Fatima, I. Krishnarajah, M. Z. Jaffar, and M. B. Adam, “A mathematical model for the control of cholera in Nigeria,” Research Journal of Environmental and Earth Sciences, vol. 6, no. 6, pp. 321-325, 2014. S. Mushayabasa, and C. P. Bhunu, “BioSystems Is HIV infection associated with an increased risk for cholera? Insights from a mathematical model,” Biosystems, vol. 109, no. 2, pp. 203-213, 2012.
- J. Lin, R. Xu, and X. Tian, “Transmission dynamics of cholera with hyperinfectious and hypoinfectious vibrios: mathematical modelling and control strategies,” Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, vol. 16, no. 5, pp. 4339-4358, 2019.
- S. Liao, and J. Wang, “Stability analysis and application of a mathematical cholera model,” Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, vol. 8, pp. 733-752, 2011.
- V. D. Nguyen, N. Screenivasan, E. Lam, T. Ayers, D. Kargbo, F. Dafae, A. Jambai, W. Alemu, A. Kamara, M. Islam, S. Stroika, C. Bopp, R. Quick, E. Mintz, and J. M. Brunkard, “Cholera epidemic associated with consumption of unsafe drinking water and street-vended water-eastern freetown; Sierra Leone; 2012,” The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, vol. 90, no. 3, pp. 518-523, 2014.
- D. S. Mgonja, E. S. Massawe, and O. D. Makinde, “Computational modelling of cholera bacteriophage with treatment,” Open Journal of Epidemiology, vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 172-186, 2015.
- J. Lilje, H. Mosler, and H. Kessely, “Factors determining water treatment behavior for the prevention of cholera in Chad.,” The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, vol. 93, no. 1, pp. 57-65, 2015.
- J. M. Ochoche, “A Mathematical Model for the Dynamics of Cholera with Control Strategy,” International Journal of Science and Technology, vol. 14, no. 9, pp. 212-217, 2013.
- P. Panja, “Optimal control analysis of a cholera epidemic model,” Biophysical Reviews and Letters, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 27-48, 2019.
- K. O. Okosun, M. A. Khan, E. Bonyah, and O. O. Okosun, “Cholera-schistosomiasis coinfection dynamics,” Optimal Control Applications and Methods, vol. 40, no. 4, pp. 703-727, 2019.
- F. Nyabadza, J. M. Aduamah, and J. Mushanyu, “Modelling cholera transmission dynamics in the presence of limited resources,” BMC Research Notes, vol. 12, pp. 1-8, 2019.
- C. Ratchford and J. Wang, "Modeling cholera dynamics at multiple scales: environmental evolution; between-host transmission; and within-host interaction.," Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 782-812, 2019.
- J. Sharma, M. Malakar, M. Soni, and A. Pathak, “Outbreak of cholera in some villages of Boginodi area in Lakhimpur district of Assam,” International Journal of Pharmacy and Biological Sciences, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 450-454, 2013.
- C. Ratchford and J. Wang, “Multi-scale modeling of cholera dynamics in a spatially heterogeneous environment,” Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 948-974, 2020.
- A. Tuite, J. Tien, M. Eisenberg, D. Earn, J. Ma, and D. Fisman, “Cholera epidemic in Haiti: Using a transmission model to explain spatial spread of disease and identify optimal control interventions,” Ann Intern Med, vol. 154, pp. 593-601, 2010.
- G.-Q. Sun, J.-H. Xie, S.-H. Huang, Z. Jin, M.-T. Li, and L. Liu, “Transmission dynamics of cholera: mathematical modeling and control strategies,” Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, vol. 45, pp. 235-244, 2017. C. Yang, and J. Wang, “A cholera transmission model incorporating the impact of medical resources,” Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, vol. 16, no. 5, pp. 5226-5246, 2019.
- C. Song, R. Xu, N. Bai, X. Tian, and J. Lin, “Global dynamics and optimal control of a cholera transmission model with vaccination strategy and multiple pathways,” Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 4210-4224, 2020.
- K. A. Eustace, S. Osman, and M. Wainaina, “Mathematical modelling and analysis of the dynamics of cholera,” Global Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics, vol. 14, no. 9, pp. 1259-1275, 2018.
- M. A. Khan, A. Ali, and L. C. C. e. a. Dennis, “Dynamical behavior of cholera epidemic model with non- linear incidence rate,” Applied Mathematical Sciences, vol. 9, no. 20, pp. 989-1002, 2015.
- N. J. Ezeagu, H. A. Togbenon, and E. Moyo, “Modeling and analysis of cholera dynamics with vaccination,” American Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 1-8, 2019.
- C. T. Codeco, “Endemic and epidemic dynamics of cholera: the role of the aquatic reservoir,” BMC Infectious Diseases, vol. 1, no. 1, 2001.
- D. M. Hartley, J. G. Morris Jr, and D. L. Smith, “Hyperinfectivity: A critical element in the ability of V. cholerae to cause epidemics?,” PLoS Medicine, vol. 3, pp. 0063-0069, 2006.
- R. I. Joh, H. Wang, H. Weiss, and J. S. Weitz, “Dynamics of indirectly transmitted infectious diseases with immunological threshold,” Bull. Math. Biol., vol. 71, pp. 845-862, 2009.
- Z. Mukandavire, S. Liao, J. Wang, H. Gaff, D. Smith, and J. Morris, “Estimating the reproductive numbers for the 2008–2009 cholera outbreaks in Zimbabwe,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 108, pp. 8767-8772, 2011.
- J. H. Tien, and D. J. D. Earn, “Multiple transmission pathways and disease dynamics in a waterborne pathogen model,” Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, vol. 72, no. 6, pp. 1502-1533, 2010.
- R. L. M. Neil an, E. Schaefer, H. Gaff, K. R. Fister, and S. Lenhart, “Modelingoptimal intervention strategiesfor cholera,” Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, vol. 72, pp. 2004-2018, 2010.
- C. Yang, and J. Wang, “On the intrinsic dynamics of bacteria in waterborne infections,” Mathematical Biosciences, vol. 296, pp. 71-81, 2018.
- N. Opoku, and C. Afriyie, “The role of control measures and the environment in the transmission dynamics of cholera,” Abstract and Applied Analysis, Hindawi, vol. 2485979, pp. 16, 2020.

Toplam 39 adet kaynakça vardır.

Birincil Dil | İngilizce |
---|---|

Konular | Mühendislik |

Bölüm | Makaleler |

Yazarlar | |

Yayımlanma Tarihi | 1 Mayıs 2023 |

Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2023 Cilt: 20 Sayı: 1 |