Future Prediction for Tax Complaints to Turkish Ombudsman by Models from Polynomial Regression and Parametric Distribution

Year 2024, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 63 - 72, 31.03.2024

Mehmet Niyazi Çankaya , Murat Aydın

https://doi.org/10.51537/chaos.1422400

Abstract

The aim of this study is to forecast the amount of tax complaints filed with the Turkish Ombudsman in the future and whether or not policymakers require a specific tax Ombudsman. The polynomial regression for discrete data set is proposed to fit the number of events of tax complaints in the period from years $2013$ to $2021$. The artificial data set is generated by models which are polynomial regression and parametric distribution. The location, scale and shape parameters are determined according to the smallest value between the observed and predicted dependent variable. After determining the smallest value for the tried values of shape parameter and the parameters of polynomial regression, the best value determined by grid search for shape parameter is around $1.07$. Thus, the heavy-tailed from of exponential power distribution is gained. The artificial data sets are generated and sorted from the smallest to biggest ones. The maximum values are around $700$ and $800$ which can be regarded as future prediction because the distance among observations is taken into account by models from polynomial regression and parametric distribution. Since the polynomial regression and the parametric models are used simultaneously for modelling, the distance among observations can also be modelled by parametric model as an alternative approach provided.

Keywords

estimation, inference, public economics, parametric models, simulation

Ethical Statement

Çalışmada etik onay belgesi gerektiren bir veri kullanılmamıştır.

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