G-7 Ülkelerinde Kişi Başı Reel GSYİH Durağan Mıdır? Fourier Panel Birim Kök Testinden Yeni Kanıtlar

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 22 Sayı: 2, 123 - 144, 08.11.2021

Tunahan Hacıimamoğlu

https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.948351

Öz

Makroekonomik değişkenlerin istikrarı ve bu değişkenler üzerinde görülen bir şokun etkisinin kalıcı mı yoksa geçici mi olduğu politika yapıcılar ve araştırmacılar için önemlidir. Büyüme ve refahın bir göstergesi olarak gayri safi yurt içi hasıla (GSYİH) ise önemli makroekonomik değişkenler arasında yer almaktadır. Bununla birlikte güncel panel veri analizi tekniklerinin geleneksel yöntemlere göre sahip olduğu avantajlar nedeni ile GSYİH için birim kökün varlığının analiz edilmesinde bahsi geçen yöntemlerin kullanılması önem arz etmektedir. Bu doğrultuda bu çalışmanın amacı yatay kesit bağımlılığını, çok faktörlü yapıyı ve yapısal değişimleri dikkate alan daha güçlü yeni bir birim kök testi (BCIPS) ile 1970-2019 dönemi için G-7 ülkelerinde kişi başı reel GSYİH verisinin durağan bir süreç izleyip izlemediğini araştırmaktır. Analiz sonuçları G-7 ülkeleri için kişi başı reel GSYİH verisinin durağan bir yapıya sahip olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Elde edilen sonuç bağlamında G-7 ülkelerinde ortaya çıkan bir şokun etkisinin geçici olduğu dolayısıyla çıktıda ortaya çıkan herhangi bir dalgalanma sürecine para veya maliye politikası araçları ile müdahale edilmesine gerek görülmediği tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

BCIPS Birim-Kök Testi, Durağanlık, G-7 Ülkeleri, Kişi Başı Reel GSYİH.

Destekleyen Kurum

Çalışma herhangi bir kurum tarafından desteklenmemektedir.

Teşekkür

Çalışmalarıma sunduğu katkılardan dolayı Doç. Dr. Salih TÜREDİ ve Arş. Gör. Harun SARAÇ'a şükranlarımı arz ederim.

Is Per Capita Real GDP Stationary in G-7 Countries? New Evidence from A Fourier Panel Unit Root Test

Öz

The stability of macroeconomic variables and whether the impact of a shock on these variables is permanent or temporary is important for policy-makers and researchers. As an indicator of growth and prosperity, gross domestic product (GDP) is among the important macroeconomic variables. After all, due to the advantages of current panel data analysis techniques over conventional methods, it is important to use the aforementioned methods in analyzing the existence of unit-root for GDP. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to investigate whether per capita real GDP in G-7 countries followed a stationary process between 1970-2019 with a stronger unit-root test (BCIPS) that takes into consideration cross-section dependence, multi-factor structure, and structural changes. Empirical results reveal that per capita real GDP for G-7 countries has a stationary structure. In this context, it has been determined that the impact of a shock on per capita real GDP is temporary in G-7 countries, therefore, by means of monetary or fiscal policy instruments, it is not necessary to intervene in fluctuations occurring the output level.

Anahtar Kelimeler

BCIPS Unit-root Test, Stationarity, G-7 Countries, Per Capita Real GDP

Kaynakça

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