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Metal (Çelik) Kullanım Yoğunluğu Hipotezinin Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Sınanması

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 2, 365 - 380, 31.10.2015

Öz

Çelik tüketimi ile ekonomik kalkınma birbirleriyle yakından ilişkili olduğu için çelik tüketim miktarının bir ülkenin sanayileşme evreleri boyunca sanayileşmesinin bir göstergesi olarak kabul edilebileceği ifade edilmektedir (Huh, 2011). İkinci Dünya Savaşı sonrasında dünya metal tüketimi hızlı bir şekilde artmış ve metallerin arzı hakkında ve yakın gelecekte tükenmesi yönündeki endişeleri ortaya çıkarmıştır (Wårell, 2014). 1970’lerde, metallerin gelecekteki talebine ilişkin tahmin çabaları sürerken Uluslararası Demir ve Çelik Enstitüsü (1972) ve Malenbaum (1973) böyle bir tahminde kullanılmak üzere basit ama etkin bir yöntem olarak Metal Kullanım Yoğunluğu Hipotezi’ni önermişlerdir. Bu hipotez, reel GSYİH birimi başına tüketilen metal miktarı olarak ölçülen metal kullanım yoğunluğunun kişi başına reel gelir ile ölçülen ekonomik kalkınmanın bir fonksiyonu olduğunu savunmaktadır (Guzmán vd., 2005).

Bu çalışmanın amacı, zaman serisi metotları kullanarak, Türkiye ekonomisi için metal (çelik) kullanım yoğunluğu hipotezini 1955-2013 dönemini kapsayan veri seti ile sınamaktır. Analizde kullanılan veri seti ve ekonometrik yöntemler, gelir ve çelik tüketimi arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin olduğuna yönelik sonuçlar ortaya koymaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Abbott, A. J., Lawler, K. A., & Armistead, C. (1999). The UK demand for steel. Applied Economics, 31(11), 1299-1302. Arai, Y., & Kurozumi, E. (2007). Testing for the null hypothesis of cointegration with a structural break. Econometric Reviews, 26(6), 705-739. Coccia, M. (2012). Dynamics of the steel and long-term equilibrium hypothesis across leading geo-economic players: empirical evidence for supporting a policy formulation (No. 201202). Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth-Moncalieri (TO). Crompton, P. (1999). Forecasting steel consumption in South–East Asia.Resources Policy, 25(2), 111-123. Crompton, P. (2000). Future trends in Japanese steel consumption. Resources Policy, 26(2), 103-114. Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072. Dobrotă, G., & Căruntu, C. (2013). The analysis of the correlation between the economic growth and crude steel production in the period 1991-2011. Metalurgija, 52(3), 425-428. Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.. Evans, M. (1996). Modelling steel demand in the UK. Ironmaking & steelmaking, 23 (1), 17-24. Evans, M. (2011). Steel consumption and economic activity in the UK: The integration and cointegration debate. Resources policy, 36 (2), 97-106. Ghosh, S. (2006). Steel consumption and economic growth: Evidence from India. Resources Policy, 31 (1), 7-11. Gregory, A. W., & Hansen, B. E. (1996a). Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts. Journal of econometrics, 70(1), 99-126. Gregory, A. W., & Hansen, B. E. (1996b). Practitioners corner: tests for cointegration in models with regime and trend shifts. Oxford bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 58 (3), 555-560. Guzmán, J. I., Nishiyama, T., & Tilton, J. E. (2005). Trends in the intensity of copper use in Japan since 1960. Resources Policy, 30 (1), 21-27. Huh, K. S. (2011). Steel consumption and economic growth in Korea: Long-term and short-term evidence. Resources Policy, 36 (2), 107-113. Jaunky, V. C. (2013). A cointegration and causality analysis of copper consumption and economic growth in rich countries. Resources Policy, 38 (4), 628-639. Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of economic dynamics and control, 12 (2), 231-254. Kalkınma Bakanlığı, http://www.kalkinma.gov.tr/Pages/index.aspx. Kejriwal, M. (2008). Cointegration with structural breaks: An application to the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Studies in nonlinear dynamics & econometrics,12(1). Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?. Journal of econometrics,54(1), 159-178. Malenbaum, W., 1973. Material Requirements in the United States and Abroad in the Year 2000: A Research Project Prepared for the National Commissionon Materials Policy. University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia. Radetzki, M., & Tilton, J. E. (1990). Conceptual and methodological issues. World metal demand, trends and prospects, 13-34. Rebiasz, B. (2006). Polish steel consumption, 1974–2008. Resources Policy,31 (1), 37-49. Roberts, M. C. (1985). Theory and practice of the intensity of use method of mineral consumption forecasting. Arizona Univ., Tucson (USA). Uluslararası Demir ve Çelik Enstitüsü, Değişik Yıllar, https://www.worldsteel.org/statistics/statistics-archive/yearbook-archive.html. (Erişim Tarihi: 12.01.2014) Unctad, T. (2005). Trade and Development Report. United Nations, New York and Geneva. Tilton, J. E. (1990). World metal demand: trends and prospects. Resources for the Future. Washington, D.C. Wårell, L. (2014). Trends and developments in long-term steel demand–The intensity-of-use hypothesis revisited. Resources Policy, 39, 134-143. Wårell, L., & Olsson, A. (2009). Trends and developments in the intensity of steel use: an econometric analysis, Online at: http://pure. ltu. se/portal/files/3157773/Paper. pdf Yellishetty, M., Ranjith, P. G., & Tharumarajah, A. (2010). Iron ore and steel production trends and material flows in the world: Is this really sustainable?.Resources, conservation and recycling, 54 (12), 1084-1094.
Yıl 2015, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 2, 365 - 380, 31.10.2015

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Abbott, A. J., Lawler, K. A., & Armistead, C. (1999). The UK demand for steel. Applied Economics, 31(11), 1299-1302. Arai, Y., & Kurozumi, E. (2007). Testing for the null hypothesis of cointegration with a structural break. Econometric Reviews, 26(6), 705-739. Coccia, M. (2012). Dynamics of the steel and long-term equilibrium hypothesis across leading geo-economic players: empirical evidence for supporting a policy formulation (No. 201202). Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth-Moncalieri (TO). Crompton, P. (1999). Forecasting steel consumption in South–East Asia.Resources Policy, 25(2), 111-123. Crompton, P. (2000). Future trends in Japanese steel consumption. Resources Policy, 26(2), 103-114. Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072. Dobrotă, G., & Căruntu, C. (2013). The analysis of the correlation between the economic growth and crude steel production in the period 1991-2011. Metalurgija, 52(3), 425-428. Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276.. Evans, M. (1996). Modelling steel demand in the UK. Ironmaking & steelmaking, 23 (1), 17-24. Evans, M. (2011). Steel consumption and economic activity in the UK: The integration and cointegration debate. Resources policy, 36 (2), 97-106. Ghosh, S. (2006). Steel consumption and economic growth: Evidence from India. Resources Policy, 31 (1), 7-11. Gregory, A. W., & Hansen, B. E. (1996a). Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts. Journal of econometrics, 70(1), 99-126. Gregory, A. W., & Hansen, B. E. (1996b). Practitioners corner: tests for cointegration in models with regime and trend shifts. Oxford bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 58 (3), 555-560. Guzmán, J. I., Nishiyama, T., & Tilton, J. E. (2005). Trends in the intensity of copper use in Japan since 1960. Resources Policy, 30 (1), 21-27. Huh, K. S. (2011). Steel consumption and economic growth in Korea: Long-term and short-term evidence. Resources Policy, 36 (2), 107-113. Jaunky, V. C. (2013). A cointegration and causality analysis of copper consumption and economic growth in rich countries. Resources Policy, 38 (4), 628-639. Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of economic dynamics and control, 12 (2), 231-254. Kalkınma Bakanlığı, http://www.kalkinma.gov.tr/Pages/index.aspx. Kejriwal, M. (2008). Cointegration with structural breaks: An application to the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Studies in nonlinear dynamics & econometrics,12(1). Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?. Journal of econometrics,54(1), 159-178. Malenbaum, W., 1973. Material Requirements in the United States and Abroad in the Year 2000: A Research Project Prepared for the National Commissionon Materials Policy. University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia. Radetzki, M., & Tilton, J. E. (1990). Conceptual and methodological issues. World metal demand, trends and prospects, 13-34. Rebiasz, B. (2006). Polish steel consumption, 1974–2008. Resources Policy,31 (1), 37-49. Roberts, M. C. (1985). Theory and practice of the intensity of use method of mineral consumption forecasting. Arizona Univ., Tucson (USA). Uluslararası Demir ve Çelik Enstitüsü, Değişik Yıllar, https://www.worldsteel.org/statistics/statistics-archive/yearbook-archive.html. (Erişim Tarihi: 12.01.2014) Unctad, T. (2005). Trade and Development Report. United Nations, New York and Geneva. Tilton, J. E. (1990). World metal demand: trends and prospects. Resources for the Future. Washington, D.C. Wårell, L. (2014). Trends and developments in long-term steel demand–The intensity-of-use hypothesis revisited. Resources Policy, 39, 134-143. Wårell, L., & Olsson, A. (2009). Trends and developments in the intensity of steel use: an econometric analysis, Online at: http://pure. ltu. se/portal/files/3157773/Paper. pdf Yellishetty, M., Ranjith, P. G., & Tharumarajah, A. (2010). Iron ore and steel production trends and material flows in the world: Is this really sustainable?.Resources, conservation and recycling, 54 (12), 1084-1094.
Toplam 1 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Fikret Dülger

Salih Gencer Bu kişi benim

Almıla BURGAÇ Çil Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Ekim 2015
Gönderilme Tarihi 16 Kasım 2017
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2015 Cilt: 24 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Dülger, F., Gencer, S., & Çil, A. B. (2015). Metal (Çelik) Kullanım Yoğunluğu Hipotezinin Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Sınanması. Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 24(2), 365-380.