BEŞERİ SERMAYEDE BİR YATIRIM OLARAK SAĞLIK OCAĞI SAYISINDAKİ DEĞİŞME VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK TESTİ

Yıl 2009, Sayı: 2, 38 - 46, 01.12.2009

Kahraman Kalyoncu

Öz

1989-2001 dönemi Türkiyenin 67 ilinin fiziksel ve beşeri sermaye oranı K/H anlamında yatırım nitelemesi olarak değişen sağlık ocağı sayısı ve kişi başına düşen GSYİH arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi birim kök ve Granger nedensellik yöntemi ile test edilmiştir. Ilk olarak değişkenlerin entegrasyon düzeyini test etmekle başladık. Örneklememizin çoğu I 0 olması nedeni ile, olağan nedensellik testini uyguladık. Ancak, farklı derecelerde bütünleşme olan örneklemelerin geri kalanı için nedensellik testini uygulamadık. 8 il için ln K/H daki değişmeler büyümeye neden olur iken, 7 il için büyüme ln K/H ya neden olmaktadır. Diğer 17 il için ise döngüsel bir ilişki söz konusudur. Kişi başına GSYİH ve fiziksel ve beşeri sermaye yatırımları bağımsız olması nedeni ile, başka faktörlerin etkisi ile birlikte değişim göstermiş olabilirler. Farklı iller için iki değişken arasındaki ilişki çeşitlilik arz etmektedir. Son olarak, gelir seviyelerine bakarak yorumladığımızda çelişkili bir nedensellik durumu göze çarpmaktadır. Bu bulgulardaki zıtlıkların varlığı, büyüme ve yatırım arasındaki ilişkinin yanında ekonomik büyümeyi açıklamada başka faktörler önemli olabilir

Anahtar Kelimeler

birim kök, ekonomik büyüme, fiziksel sermaye, sağlık göstergesi formunda beşeri sermaye, fiziksel ve beşeri sermaye arasındaki tamamlayıcılık ve Granger nedensellik

CAUSALITY TEST BETWEEN CHANGING IN NUMBER OF HEALTH CENTER FACILTIES AS AN INVESTMENT IN HUMAN CAPITAL AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

Öz

We have used unit root and granger causality test to verify the relationship between per capita GDP growth and changing in number of health center investment in terms of physical to human capital ratio for 67 provinces for the period 1989-2001. We first start testing the integration order of these variables. Since most of the samples are I 0 , we have used regular causality test for them. However, for the rest of the sample, the variables are in different order so there is no causality test for those. We have found that the growth is caused by changing in ln K/H for 8 provinces while changing in ln K/H is caused by growth for 7 provinces. For seventeen provinces, there is a bi-directional causality occurred. There is also no causality at all for 17 provinces. Since per-capita GDP growth and physical to human capital investment are interdependent, they might move together under the influence of other factors. It has been observed that the relation varies for different provinces. Lastly, there is mixed result about the causality direction about the income level. Since the findings of causality for provinces are contradictory, there are factors which may be important to explain economic growth besides growth and investment’s interactions

Anahtar Kelimeler

Unit root, Economic growth, Physical capital, Human capital in the forms of health indicator, complementarities between physical and human capital and Granger causality

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