Saldırgan Realist Perspektiften Çin-ABD İlişkileri: 2000’li Yıllardan Günümüze

Öz

Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nin dış politikasında hem demokratların hem de cumhuriyetçilerin temel mutabakata vardığı konu, Çin’in bölgesel ve küresel hegemonyaya yönelik iddialı yükselişini kontrol altına alma ihtiyacıdır. ABD, Çin’i hem uluslararası düzeni yeniden şekillendirme niyeti olan hem de bunu yapabilecek askeri, ekonomik ve teknolojik güce sahip olan tek rakip olarak görmektedir. Dolayısıyla özellikle Obama’nın başkanlığıyla birlikte ABD, Çin’in sınırlandırılması amacıyla Saldırgan Realist bir teorik mercek belirlemiştir. Özellikle Çin’in Güney Çin Deniz’indeki son askeri yığınağı Saldırgan Realistlerin, uzun süredir tartıştığı gibi, büyük güçlerin bölgesel ve nihai olarak küresel hegemonya için sürekli bir mücadele içerisinde olduğunu kanıtlamıştır. Çalışmada 21.yüzyıldan günümüze kadar Çin-ABD ilişkileri Saldırgan Realizm perspektifinden değerlendirilmiştir. Bu çalışma, ABD’nin dış politikasındaki öncelikli hedefinin Çin’i frenlemek olduğu varsayımından hareket etmektedir. Bu anlamda çalışmada ABD ve Çin arasındaki güvenlik rekabetinin sıcak savaşa dönüşme ihtimali, hangi parametrelerle ABD ve Çin arasındaki sıcak çatışma ihtimalinin açıklanabileceği ve ABD ve Çin arasındaki sınırlı bir savaşın nükleer bir savaşa yol açma olasılığı Saldırgan Realizm perspektifinden değerlendirilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ABD
• Çin
• Saldırgan Realizm
• Güvenlik

China-USA Relations in an Offensive Realist Perspective: From 2000s to the Present

Öz

The main consensus of both democrats and republicans in the foreign policy of the United States is the need to contain China’s assertive rise to regional and global hegemony. The United States sees China as the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and the military, economic and technological power to do so. Therefore, especially with the presidency of Obama, the USA has determined an offensive realist theoretical lens for the purpose of limiting China. In particular, China’s recent military build-up in the South China Sea has proven that the great powers are in a constant struggle for regional and ultimately global hegemony, as Aggressive realists have long argued. In the study, China-US relations from the 21st century to the present have been evaluated from the perspective of Offensive Realism. This study is based on the assumption that the primary goal of the US foreign policy is to curb China. In this sense, the possibility of the security competition between the USA and China turning into a hot war, the parameters by which the possibility of a hot conflict between the USA and China can be explained, and the possibility of a limited war between the USA and China leading to a nuclear war are discussed from the perspective of Offensive Realism.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• USA
• Chinese
• Offensive Realism
• Security

Kaynakça

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