Assessing Wheat Yield Responses and Growing Stages Alterations to Diverse Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

Climate change is now acknowledged as being one of the globe's most significant environmental challenges of today's World. One of the most frequently utilized agricultural crops in the world and is cultivated a wide range of staple foods and energy sources for its crucial economic significance in the Anatolia. Wheat is adapted to the local ecological circumstances in the Central Anatolian province of Konya. Therefore, it is essential to predict its response to changing climate. This work aimed to assess the potential influence of climate change on wheat yield and phenology alteration in Konya by applying the LINTUL-MULTICROP Model. Four distinct scenarios were contrasted to limit the impact of climate change on wheat production in the Konya province. The scenarios are as a) current condition, b) current condition +2°C, c) current condition +4°C, and d) current condition +200 ppm. Results indicate that a 2°C temperature increase leads to the yield from 5.5 to 6.9 t ha-1, while a 4°C increase further boosts the yield from 5.5 to 8.0 t ha-1. Additionally, an increase of 200 ppm in CO2 levels results in a yield of 7.1 t ha-1 with a corresponding change in Radiation Use Efficiency (RUE) to 1.56 g MJ-1. Changing the planting date can lessen the detrimental impacts of climate change on cereal production. It highlights the significance of irrigation to increase agricultural output and efficiently manage water resources

Keywords

• Crop modelling
• Climate change
• Wheat
• LINTUL
• Yield Estimation

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