Quantitative Analysis of Burdur's Climatic Transformation

Abstract

This study offers a detailed analysis of climate change trends in Burdur, Turkey, spanning a century (1924–2024), using a comprehensive dataset that includes temperature (average, minimum, maximum), precipitation, humidity, and the number of rainy and sunny days. The aim is to evaluate long-term climatic shifts and assess the local manifestations of global climate change. The analysis reveals a consistent increase in average temperatures, supported by rising minimum and maximum values. This indicates a general warming trend in the region. While overall annual precipitation has remained relatively stable, significant irregularities have been observed — with alternating periods of intense rainfall and prolonged droughts. These fluctuations present growing risks to water management and agricultural sustainability. Changes in relative humidity and sunshine patterns were also noted. An increase in sunny days, alongside a decrease in rainy days, suggests a shift in seasonal dynamics and atmospheric moisture conditions, further evidencing a deviation from historical climatic norms. Although many trends were not statistically significant on a linear basis, the cumulative changes highlight Burdur’s climatic vulnerability. The study emphasizes that climate change in the region may not always follow a predictable pattern but can still have profound local consequences. These findings provide a scientific basis for regional planning and climate resilience strategies. They support the development of adaptive policies for agriculture, water resources, and urban planning. Moreover, this case study contributes to broader research on climate impacts in semi-arid and Mediterranean-influenced regions. In conclusion, the study underlines the importance of localized, long-term climate assessments for effective environmental management, offering crucial insight into how global climate change translates into specific regional transformations.

Keywords

• Climate Change
• Climate Resilience
• Temperature Trends
• Precipitation Patterns
• Burdur

References

1. Aksoy H. & Yıldırım V. 2021. Impacts of Climate Change on Turkey's Agricultural Sector and Adaptation Strategies. Environment and Human Journal, 13(1), 45–62.
2. Climate Research Group. 2015. Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project: Inland Regions Report. European Court of Auditors, 56 p, Luxemburg.
3. Davis L. & Brown P. 2010. The role of humidity and cloud cover in localized drought intensification. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 49(8), 1620–1635.
4. Demircan M., Sensoy S., Türkoğlu N., Akçakaya A., Ekici M., Ulupınar Y., Atay H., Tüvan, A. & Demirbaş H. 2013. Impacts of climate change on Turkey's water resources. Journal of Water Resources Management, 5(2), 87–102.
5. Fowler H. J. & Wilby R. L. 2007. Climatic impacts on seasonal hydrological regimes in the Upper Ebro catchment: The role of precipitation. Journal of Hydrology, 340(3–4), 239–254.
6. Gürer S. & Alpat Y. 2018. Hydroclimatic characteristics and changes in the Burdur Lake Basin. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 16(2), 175–195.
7. IPCC 2022. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
8. IPCC 2023. Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.

9. Jones A. & Davies C. 2019. The significance of regional climate assessments in a global warming context. Environmental Science & Policy, 98, 123–135.
10. Karl T. R., et al. 2001. Global climate change: The 1990s were the warmest decade. Geophysical Research Letters, 28(1), 1–4.
11. Khalily F., Uçak İ. & Bağdatlı M.C. 2024. The Impact of Glacier Melts on Food Production in North Zone of Russia. Eurasian Journal of Agricultural Research, 8(2), 192-201.
12. Local Economic Development Report, Burdur. 2020. Burdur Governorship or Local Development Agency Report. 107 p., Burdur, Türkiye.
13. Mann M. E. & Jones P. D. 200). Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(15), 1820.
14. Ministry of Environment and Urbanization. 2015. Turkey Climate Change Action Plan. Republic of Turkey, Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, 77 p., Ankara, Turkey.
15. National Climate Assessment. 2018. Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II. U.S. Global Change Research Program, 39 p., USA
16. Peterson T. C., Easterling D.R., Karl T.R., Groisman P., Nicholls N., Plummer N., Parker D. 1998. Homogenization of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in the United States. Journal of Climate, 11(10), 2634–2654.
17. Sayın M. & Eroğlu Ö. 2017. Drought events and climate change relationship in Turkey. International Journal of Water Research, 4(1), 35–52.
18. Smith J.A., et al. 2020. Global temperature trends and projected changes. Nature Climate Change, 10(4), 312–318.
19. Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) Data Archives. 2024. Burdur Meteorological Station Historical Data. https://www.mgm.gov.tr/eng/forecast-cities.aspx. (accessed 22 March 2025)
20. Türkeş M. 1996. Spatial and temporal analysis of annual rainfall variations in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 16(9), 1057–1076.