Prioritizing Flood Risk Assessment Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP): A Decision-Support Approach in the Lower Bagmati River Basin

Sohidul Islam; Mary Tahir; Dr Md Senaul Haque; Nasima Parveen; Sk Mohibul

doi:10.33904/ejfe.1658705

Prioritizing Flood Risk Assessment Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP): A Decision-Support Approach in the Lower Bagmati River Basin

Abstract

Flood risk mapping is a vital tool for effective flood disaster management, enabling policymakers to identify vulnerable zones and allocate resources efficiently. However, research often prioritizes major rivers, neglecting minor rivers, particularly in India, where frequent floods are poorly managed. Factors include floodplain encroachment, climate change, weak inter-agency coordination, limited use of geospatial technologies, such as Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS), and poor enforcement of regulations. An integrated approach combining structural measures (e.g., embankments) and non-structural measures (e.g., floodplain zoning, land use policies, and community awareness programs) is critical to minimize flood damage. This study employs multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) tools to integrate diverse environmental datasets, including geophysical factors (e.g., slope, elevation, drainage density, rainfall) and socio-economic parameters (e.g., population density, health infrastructure, illiteracy, and land use). Results reveal that 26.94% of the area is at high flood risk, with 6.71% under very high risk, requiring immediate intervention. The flood risk map achieved a high validation accuracy with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) 0.92, confirming its reliability. This research emphasizes the importance of focusing on minor rivers and employing advanced decision-making tools to strengthen flood resilience. The findings further offer implications for forest engineering (e.g., watershed restoration, slope stabilization), land use regulation, and soil–water management, thereby supporting sustainable disaster preparedness and planning in understudied regions.

Keywords

Flood risk mapping, multicriteria decision-making, analytical hierarchy process (AHP), Socio-economic vulnerability, lower Bagmati river basin

Supporting Institution

The authors declared that this study has received no financial support.

Ethical Statement

N/A.

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Information Systems (Other), Water Resources and Water Structures

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Sohidul Islam
0000-0002-5007-2956
India

Mary Tahir
0009-0001-4672-283X
India

Dr Md Senaul Haque
0000-0002-7347-7374
India

Nasima Parveen
0009-0001-8823-9037
India

Sk Mohibul ^*
0000-0003-2782-8855
India

Early Pub Date

June 2, 2026

Publication Date

June 11, 2026

Submission Date

March 16, 2025

Acceptance Date

November 4, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 12 Number: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.33904/ejfe.1658705

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA64UC85RG

APA

Islam, S., Tahir, M., Haque, D. M. S., Parveen, N., & Mohibul, S. (2026). Prioritizing Flood Risk Assessment Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP): A Decision-Support Approach in the Lower Bagmati River Basin. European Journal of Forest Engineering, 12(1), 36-52. https://doi.org/10.33904/ejfe.1658705

AMA

1.Islam S, Tahir M, Haque DMS, Parveen N, Mohibul S. Prioritizing Flood Risk Assessment Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP): A Decision-Support Approach in the Lower Bagmati River Basin. Eur J Forest Eng. 2026;12(1):36-52. doi:10.33904/ejfe.1658705

Chicago

Islam, Sohidul, Mary Tahir, Dr Md Senaul Haque, Nasima Parveen, and Sk Mohibul. 2026. “Prioritizing Flood Risk Assessment Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP): A Decision-Support Approach in the Lower Bagmati River Basin”. European Journal of Forest Engineering 12 (1): 36-52. https://doi.org/10.33904/ejfe.1658705.

EndNote

Islam S, Tahir M, Haque DMS, Parveen N, Mohibul S (June 1, 2026) Prioritizing Flood Risk Assessment Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP): A Decision-Support Approach in the Lower Bagmati River Basin. European Journal of Forest Engineering 12 1 36–52.

IEEE

[1]S. Islam, M. Tahir, D. M. S. Haque, N. Parveen, and S. Mohibul, “Prioritizing Flood Risk Assessment Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP): A Decision-Support Approach in the Lower Bagmati River Basin”, Eur J Forest Eng, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 36–52, June 2026, doi: 10.33904/ejfe.1658705.

ISNAD

Islam, Sohidul - Tahir, Mary - Haque, Dr Md Senaul - Parveen, Nasima - Mohibul, Sk. “Prioritizing Flood Risk Assessment Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP): A Decision-Support Approach in the Lower Bagmati River Basin”. European Journal of Forest Engineering 12/1 (June 1, 2026): 36-52. https://doi.org/10.33904/ejfe.1658705.

JAMA

1.Islam S, Tahir M, Haque DMS, Parveen N, Mohibul S. Prioritizing Flood Risk Assessment Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP): A Decision-Support Approach in the Lower Bagmati River Basin. Eur J Forest Eng. 2026;12:36–52.

MLA

Islam, Sohidul, et al. “Prioritizing Flood Risk Assessment Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP): A Decision-Support Approach in the Lower Bagmati River Basin”. European Journal of Forest Engineering, vol. 12, no. 1, June 2026, pp. 36-52, doi:10.33904/ejfe.1658705.

Vancouver

1.Sohidul Islam, Mary Tahir, Dr Md Senaul Haque, Nasima Parveen, Sk Mohibul. Prioritizing Flood Risk Assessment Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP): A Decision-Support Approach in the Lower Bagmati River Basin. Eur J Forest Eng. 2026 Jun. 1;12(1):36-52. doi:10.33904/ejfe.1658705

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The works published in European Journal of Forest Engineering (EJFE) are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Prioritizing Flood Risk Assessment Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP): A Decision-Support Approach in the Lower Bagmati River Basin

Abstract

Keywords

Supporting Institution

Ethical Statement

References

Details

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Subjects

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Early Pub Date

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Acceptance Date

Published in Issue

DOI

IZ

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