Is the performance of the companies operating in the participation index in the Turkish economy affected by the macroeconomic perspective?

Abstract

This study aims to examine whether the participation index performance in the Turkish economy is going well in terms of macroeconomic factors over the period of January 2018March 2021. In this study, the cointegration between the variables is checked with the ARDL bound test and the Johansen cointegration method. The long-term coefficients are estimated through the ARDL model. Finally, the causal linkage among the participation index performance and traditional stock market index, short-term interest rate, money supply, and the inflation rate is tested with the Toda-Yamamoto causality method. The main empirical findings are shown as in the following: 1) there is cointegration between the Participation index performance and traditional stock market index, short-term interest rate, money supply, and inflation rate under the structural break, 2) the traditional stock market index and money supply improve the Participation index performance in Turkish economy while short-term interest rates hamper it, and 3) there is a two-way causality between the participation index performance and the traditional stock market index and inflation rate, and a one-way causality relationship running from money supply and interest rates to Participation index performance. These evidences provide important suggestions to investors in terms of portfolio diversification and to policymakers in the light of risk allocation and market policies.  

Keywords

• Participation index
• Macroeconomic factors
• Structural break
• ARDL Bounds test
• Causality analysis

Is the performance of the companies operating in the participation index in the Turkish economy affected by the macroeconomic perspective?

Abstract

This study aims to examine whether the participation index performance in the Turkish economy is going well in terms of macroeconomic factors over the period of January 2018March 2021. In this study, the cointegration between the variables is checked with the ARDL bound test and the Johansen cointegration method. The long-term coefficients are estimated through the ARDL model. Finally, the causal linkage among the participation index performance and traditional stock market index, short-term interest rate, money supply, and the inflation rate is tested with the Toda-Yamamoto causality method. The main empirical findings are shown as in the following: 1) there is cointegration between the Participation index performance and traditional stock market index, short-term interest rate, money supply, and inflation rate under the structural break, 2) the traditional stock market index and money supply improve the Participation index performance in Turkish economy while short-term interest rates hamper it, and 3) there is a two-way causality between the participation index performance and the traditional stock market index and inflation rate, and a one-way causality relationship running from money supply and interest rates to Participation index performance. These evidences provide important suggestions to investors in terms of portfolio diversification and to policymakers in the light of risk allocation and market policies.

Keywords

• Participation index
• Traditional stock market index
• Macroeconomic factors
• Structural break
• ARDL Bounds test

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