Empirical effects of short-term export bans: The case of rice sectors in India, Thailand and Vietnam

Mazen Diwani

doi:10.58251/ekonomi.1637248

Empirical effects of short-term export bans: The case of rice sectors in India, Thailand and Vietnam

Abstract

India's recent ban on non-basmati rice exports aims to lower domestic rice prices, which have increased by more than 30% since October 2022. However, this move might lead to a decline in rice export numbers, potentially increasing global prices, and worsening food insecurity. This study examines the immediate effects of India's recent ban on rice exports on top rice-producing economies and countries with a share of imported rice from India exceeding 60%. Four policy scenarios were designed, with scenarios 1 and 2 varying the export ban on rice and scenarios 3 and 4 focusing on the reduction in rice crop productivity due to El Niño. The macroeconomic ramifications of these scenarios include a decline in real GDP. Real consumption expenditure is expected to decline in all economies. Sectoral effects show that rice is the most negatively affected crop in Vietnam and India, as farmers redirect resources to other crops.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Macroeconomic Theory, Development Economics - Macro, Regional Development and Globalisation in International Economics

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Mazen Diwani ^*
0000-0003-4253-314X
United Kingdom

Early Pub Date

April 8, 2025

Publication Date

November 28, 2025

Submission Date

February 11, 2025

Acceptance Date

April 8, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2025 Volume: 7 Number: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.58251/ekonomi.1637248

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA74RK74EH

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Diwani, M. (2025). Empirical effects of short-term export bans: The case of rice sectors in India, Thailand and Vietnam. Journal of Ekonomi, 7(2), 119-140. https://doi.org/10.58251/ekonomi.1637248

AMA

1.Diwani M. Empirical effects of short-term export bans: The case of rice sectors in India, Thailand and Vietnam. JOE. 2025;7(2):119-140. doi:10.58251/ekonomi.1637248

Chicago

Diwani, Mazen. 2025. “Empirical Effects of Short-Term Export Bans: The Case of Rice Sectors in India, Thailand and Vietnam”. Journal of Ekonomi 7 (2): 119-40. https://doi.org/10.58251/ekonomi.1637248.

EndNote

Diwani M (November 1, 2025) Empirical effects of short-term export bans: The case of rice sectors in India, Thailand and Vietnam. Journal of Ekonomi 7 2 119–140.

IEEE

[1]M. Diwani, “Empirical effects of short-term export bans: The case of rice sectors in India, Thailand and Vietnam”, JOE, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 119–140, Nov. 2025, doi: 10.58251/ekonomi.1637248.

ISNAD

Diwani, Mazen. “Empirical Effects of Short-Term Export Bans: The Case of Rice Sectors in India, Thailand and Vietnam”. Journal of Ekonomi 7/2 (November 1, 2025): 119-140. https://doi.org/10.58251/ekonomi.1637248.

JAMA

1.Diwani M. Empirical effects of short-term export bans: The case of rice sectors in India, Thailand and Vietnam. JOE. 2025;7:119–140.

MLA

Diwani, Mazen. “Empirical Effects of Short-Term Export Bans: The Case of Rice Sectors in India, Thailand and Vietnam”. Journal of Ekonomi, vol. 7, no. 2, Nov. 2025, pp. 119-40, doi:10.58251/ekonomi.1637248.

Vancouver

1.Mazen Diwani. Empirical effects of short-term export bans: The case of rice sectors in India, Thailand and Vietnam. JOE. 2025 Nov. 1;7(2):119-40. doi:10.58251/ekonomi.1637248