Ekonomi-tek 2146-6173 2791-7991 Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Vakfı 10.65653/ekonomitek.1840274 Macroeconomics (Other) Makro İktisat (Diğer) Türkiye’de Sermaye Malları İthalatının Doğrusal Olmayan Belirleyicileri: Belirsizlik, Sanayi Üretimi ve Reel Kur Nonlinear Determinants of Türkiye’s Capital Goods Imports: Uncertainty, Industrial Production, and Real Exchange Rates https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6860-8210 Ülker Barış DİCLE ÜNİVERSİTESİ 03 12 2026 15 1 134 158 12 11 2025 02 16 2026 Copyright © 2012, Ekonomi-tek 2012 Ekonomi-tek

Sermaye malları, Türkiye’nin başlıca ithalat kalemleri içinde yer almaktadır. Bu çalışmada, küresel belirsizliğin, sanayi üretim endeksinin ve reel efektif döviz kurunun (REDK), Türkiye’nin reel sermaye malı ithalatı üzerindeki etkileri, asimetrileri ortaya çıkarmak için Lineer Olmayan Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikmeler (NARDL) modeli ile incelenmiştir. Çalışma 1994Q1-2025Q1 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Bulgular, sanayi üretiminin ithalat üzerinde güçlü bir asimetrik etkisini ve büyüme dönemlerinde ithalat hızla artarken, durgunluk dönemlerinde aşağı yönlü katılık gösterdiğini ortaya koymuştur. Kısa dönemde artan belirsizlik, ithalatı olumsuz etkileyerek Reel Opsiyon Teorisi’ni doğrularken, uzun dönemde etkisiz kalmıştır. Asimetrik etki sadece işaret açısından yönseldir. Buna karşın, REDK uzun dönemde ithalat üzerinde simetrik bir etkiye sahiptir. Sonuçlar, Türkiye’nin ithal sermaye mallarına olan yüksek bağımlığını ve büyüme için yerli sermaye mallarının önemini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu sonuçlar doğrultusunda, küresel belirsizliğe karşı dayanıklılığı güçlendirmek, özellikle durgunluk dönemlerinde sermaye malı ithalatının dengelenmesine yardımcı olacaktır.

Capital goods are among Türkiye’s main import items. In this study, the effects of world uncertainty, industrial production index, and real effective exchange rates (REER) on Türkiye’s real capital goods imports over the 1994Q1-2025Q1 period are investigated with the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model to reveal asymmetries. Industrial production affects imports asymmetrically, surging during growth but exhibiting downward rigidity in recessions. Uncertainty confirms the Real Options Theory by affecting imports negatively in the short run, however it is ineffective in the long run. The asymmetric effect of the uncertainty is only directional. On the contrary, the REER has a symmetric effect on imports in the long-run. The results show Türkiye’s high dependence on imported capital goods and the importance of domestic capital goods for growth. These findings suggest that policies aimed at straightening resilience to global uncertainty in the short run may help stabilize capital goods import demand, especially during downturn periods.

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