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An Analysis of the Dynamic Co-movements between External Shocks, International Oil Prices, Money Supply and Inflation: Evidence from the Wavelet Coherence Approach

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 335 - 353, 02.07.2023
https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1276314

Öz

The expansionary monetary policies implemented by the central banks in order to get out of the economic stagnation that emerged as a result of economic policy uncertainties, sudden increases or decreases in demand, which emerged with the economic depressions experienced in specific periods, accelerated inflation on a global scale. Therefore, upward inflationary effects emerged in international commodity, food, and energy prices. As a result of this situation, many countries around the world have caused central banks to implement policies that will take measures to combat inflation, while global economic policy uncertainty has brought the question of how to keep the tight relationship between energy prices and money in compensate, in the fights against inflation. In this study, dynamic interactions between global economic policy uncertainty, money supply, international oil prices and inflation in the time and frequency domain are analyzed by Wavelet methods, using monthly data for Turkey between January 2006 and June 2022. It has been observed that global economic policy uncertainty drives international crude oil prices, thus proving the sensitivity of the momentum power on inflation in important historical intervals. In addition, the guiding effects of money supply on inflation in some important historical and event dynamics were determined. These findings provide important implications for policy makers and investors in the Turkiye context.

Kaynakça

  • An, L., Jin, X. and Ren, X. (2014). Are the macroeconomic effects of oil price shock symmetric?: A factor-augmented vector autoregressive approach. Energy Economics, 45, 217-228. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.06.003
  • Baker, S.R., Bloom, N. and Davis, S.J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024
  • Berument, H. and Taşçı, H. (2002), Inflationary effect of crude oil prices in Turkey. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 316(1-4), 568-580. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4371(02)01025-7
  • Bhar, R. and Mallik, G. (2010). Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth in the USA. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 389(23), 5503-5510. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2010.06.063
  • Bloom, N. (2009), The impact of uncertainty shocks. Econometrica, 77(3), 623-685. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA6248
  • Boateng, E., Asafo-Adjei, E., Addison, A., Quaicoe, S., Yusuf, M.A. and Adam, A.M. (2022). Interconnectedness among commodities, the real sector of Ghana and external shocks. Resources Policy, 75, 102511. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102511
  • Choi, S., Furceri, D., Loungani, P., Mishra, S. and Poplawski-Ribeiro, M. (2018). Oil prices and inflation dynamics: Evidence from advanced and developing economies. Journal of International Money and Finance, 82, 71-96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.12.004
  • Christensen, M. (2001). Real supply shocks and the money growth–inflation relationship. Economics Letters, 72(1), 67-72. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(01)00403-7
  • Cologni, A. and Manera, M. (2008). Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries. Energy Economics, 30(3), 856-888. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2006.11.001
  • Cunado, J. and De Gracia, F.P. (2005). Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: Evidence for some Asian countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 45(1), 65-83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2004.02.003
  • Çelik, T ve Çetin, A. (2007). Petrol fiyatlarının makroekonomik etkileri: Türkiye ekonomisi için ampirik bir uygulama. Selçuk üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Yüksekokulu Dergisi, 10(1-2), 97-116. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/selcuksbmyd/
  • Dai, P.F., Xiong, X., Zhang, J. and Zhou, W.X. (2022). The role of global economic policy uncertainty in predicting crude oil futures volatility: Evidence from a two-factor GARCH-MIDAS model. Resources Policy, 78, 102849. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102849
  • Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
  • Doan Van, D. (2020). Money supply and inflation impact on economic growth. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 12(1), 121-136. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-10-2018-0152
  • Doroodian, K. and Boyd, R. (2003). The linkage between oil price shocks and economic growth with inflation in the presence of technological advances: A CGE model. Energy Policy, 31(10), 898-1006. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0301-4215(02)00141-6
  • Eberly, J.C. (1994). Adjustment of consumers durables stocks: Evidence from automobile purchases. Journal of Political Economy, 102(3), 403-436. https://doi.org/10.1086/261940
  • Energy Information Administration. (2022). Crude oil in dollars per barrel [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm
  • Eroglu, İ. and Yeter, F. (2022). Time-varying causality between money supply growth and inflation: New evidence from Turkey. Applied Economics Letters, Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2022.2159007
  • Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (2022). Consumer price index [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TURCPIALLMINMEI
  • Gallagher, L.A. and Taylor, M.P. (2002). Permanent and temporary components of stock prices: Evidence from assessing macroeconomic shocks. Southern Economic Journal, 69(2), 345-362. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.2325-8012.2002.tb00496.x
  • Gisser, M. and Goodwin, T.H. (1986). Crude oil and the macroeconomy: Tests of some popular notions: Note. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 18(1), 95-103. https://doi.org/10.2307/1992323
  • Grinsted, A., Moore, J.C. and Jevrejeva, S. (2004). Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 11(5/6), 561-566. https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-11-561-2004
  • Gurley, K. and Kareem, A. (1999). Applications of wavelet transforms in earthquake, wind and ocean engineering. Engineering Structures, 21(2), 149-167. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0141-0296(97)00139-9
  • Gurley, K. Kijewski, T. and Kareem, A. (2003). First-and higher-order correlation detection using wavelet transforms. Journal of Engineering Mechanics, 129(2), 188-201. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9399(2003)129:2(188)
  • Hamilton, J.D. (2008). Oil and the macroeconomy. The new Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2, 1-17. Retrieved from https://econweb.ucsd.edu/
  • Hamilton, J.D. (2009). Causes and consequences of the oil shock of 2007-08 (National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. w15002). Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w15002/w15002.pdf
  • Hossain, A.A. (2010). Monetary targeting for price stability in Bangladesh: How stable is its money demand function and the linkage between money supply growth and inflation? Journal of Asian Economics, 21(6), 564-578. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2010.07.003
  • Husaini, D.H. Puah, C.H. and Lean, H.H. (2019). Energy subsidy and oil price fluctuation, and price behavior in Malaysia: A time series analysis. Energy, 171, 1000-1008. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.01.078
  • Istiak, K. and Alam, M.R. (2019). Oil prices, policy uncertainty and asymmetries in inflation expectations. Journal of Economic Studies. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-02-2018-0074
  • Istrefi, K. and Piloiu, A. Economic policy uncertainty and ınflation expectations (Banque de France Working Paper No. 511). Retrieved from https://ssrn.com/abstract=2510829
  • Jarque, C.M. and Bera, A.K. (1980). Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals. Economics Letters, 6(3), 255-259. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(80)90024-5
  • Jiang, Q. and Cheng, S. (2021). How the fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty of China respond to global oil price volatility: A multi-regime-on-scale approach. Resources Policy, 72, 102121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102121
  • Jones, P.M. and Olson, E. (2013). The time-varying correlation between uncertainty, output, and inflation: Evidence from a DCC-GARCH model. Economics Letters, 118(1), 33-37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.09.012
  • Kibritçioğlu, A. (1999). Türkiye’de akaryakıt ürünü fiyat gelişmeleri ve enflasyon: Yeni bulgular (SBF Tartışma Metinleri No: 14). Erişim adresi: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/0306/0306005.pdf
  • Kilian, L. (2009). Not all oil price shocks are alike: Disentangling demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market. The American Economic Review, 2009, 99(3), 1053-1069. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.3.1053
  • Kilian, L. and Lewis, L.T. (2011). Does the Fed respond to oil price shocks? The Economic Journal, 121(555), 1047-1072. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02437.x
  • Kilian, L. and Zhou, X. (2022). The impact of rising oil prices on US inflation and inflation expectations in 2020–23. Energy Economics, 106228. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106228
  • Kiptui, M. (2009). Oil price pass-through into inflation in Kenya. Paper presented at the African Econometric Society (AES) Conference. Nairobi, Kenya. Retrieved from https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&doi=dbbef39c6e8e048c819795c9030ccd5e8906e88e
  • Lacheheb, M. and Sirag, A. (2019). Oil price and inflation in Algeria: A nonlinear ARDL approach. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 73, 217-222. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2018.12.003
  • Lyu, Y., Tuo, S., Wei, Y. and Yang, M. (2021). Time-varying effects of global economic policy uncertainty shocks on crude oil price volatility: New evidence. Resources Policy, 70, 101943. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101943
  • Mallik, G and Chowdhury, A. (2011). Effect of inflation uncertainty, output uncertainty and oil price on inflation and growth in Australia. Journal of Economic Studies, 38(4), 414-429. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443581111160879
  • Mumtaz, H. and Theodoridis, K. (2018). The changing transmission of uncertainty shocks in the US. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 36(2), 239-252. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2016.1147357
  • Ng, E.K. and Chan, J.C. (2012). Geophysical applications of partial wavelet coherence and multiple wavelet coherence. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 29(12), 1845-1853. https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-12-00056.1
  • Nguyen, B. (2015). Effects of fiscal deficit and money M2 supply on inflation: Evidence from selected economies of Asia. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 20, 49-53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jefas.2015.01.002
  • Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2023). Consumer price index: All items for Turkey [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TURCPIALLMINMEI
  • Phillips, P.C.B. and Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75, 335–346. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913237
  • Riadh, A., Rangan, G. and Millerc, S.M. (2016). Uncertainty and crude oil returns. Energy Economics, 55, 92-100. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.01.012
  • Rua, A. and Nunes, L.C. (2009). International comovement of stock market returns: A wavelet analysis. Journal of Empirical Finance, 16(4), 632-639. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2009.02.002
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Dışsal Şoklar, Uluslararası Petrol Fiyatları, Para Arzı ve Enflasyon Arasındaki Dinamik İlişkilerin Analizi: Sürekli Dalgacık Yaklaşımından Kanıtlar

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 335 - 353, 02.07.2023
https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1276314

Öz

Belirli dönemlerde yaşanan iktisadi buhranlarla birlikte ortaya çıkan ekonomi politika belirsizlikleri, ani talep artışları veya azalışları neticesinde ortaya çıkan ekonomik durgunluktan çıkmak için Merkez Bankalarının uyguladıkları genişleyici para politikaları küresel ölçekte enflasyonu hızlandırmıştır. Dolayısıyla uluslararası emtia, gıda ve enerji fiyatlarında yukarı yönlü enflasyonist etkiler ortaya çıkmıştır. Ortaya çıkan bu durum neticesinde, dünya genelinde birçok ülke merkez bankasının enflasyonla mücadelede önlem oluşturacak politikalar uygulanmasına neden olurken, küresel ekonomi politika belirsizliği, enerji fiyatları ve para miktarındaki sıkı ilişkinin enflasyonla mücadelede nasıl dengede tutulacağı sorusunu da gündeme getirmiştir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye için Ocak 2006 ve Haziran 2022 dönemleri arasındaki aylık veriler kullanılarak küresel ekonomik politika belirsizliği, para arzı, uluslararası petrol fiyatları ve enflasyon arasındaki zaman ve frekans alanındaki dinamik etkileşimler Wavelet yöntemleri ile analiz edilmiştir. Küresel ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin uluslararası ham petrol fiyatlarına yön verdiği görülmüş ve böylece enflasyon üzerindeki momentum gücünün önemli tarih aralıklarındaki duyarlılığı kanıtlanmıştır. Ayrıca para arzının bazı önemli tarih ve olaylar dinamiklerinde enflasyon üzerindeki yönlendirici etkileri de saptanmıştır. Bu bulgular, Türkiye bağlamında politika yapıcılar ve yatırımcılar için önemli çıkarımlar sağlamaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • An, L., Jin, X. and Ren, X. (2014). Are the macroeconomic effects of oil price shock symmetric?: A factor-augmented vector autoregressive approach. Energy Economics, 45, 217-228. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.06.003
  • Baker, S.R., Bloom, N. and Davis, S.J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024
  • Berument, H. and Taşçı, H. (2002), Inflationary effect of crude oil prices in Turkey. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 316(1-4), 568-580. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4371(02)01025-7
  • Bhar, R. and Mallik, G. (2010). Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth in the USA. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 389(23), 5503-5510. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2010.06.063
  • Bloom, N. (2009), The impact of uncertainty shocks. Econometrica, 77(3), 623-685. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA6248
  • Boateng, E., Asafo-Adjei, E., Addison, A., Quaicoe, S., Yusuf, M.A. and Adam, A.M. (2022). Interconnectedness among commodities, the real sector of Ghana and external shocks. Resources Policy, 75, 102511. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102511
  • Choi, S., Furceri, D., Loungani, P., Mishra, S. and Poplawski-Ribeiro, M. (2018). Oil prices and inflation dynamics: Evidence from advanced and developing economies. Journal of International Money and Finance, 82, 71-96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.12.004
  • Christensen, M. (2001). Real supply shocks and the money growth–inflation relationship. Economics Letters, 72(1), 67-72. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(01)00403-7
  • Cologni, A. and Manera, M. (2008). Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries. Energy Economics, 30(3), 856-888. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2006.11.001
  • Cunado, J. and De Gracia, F.P. (2005). Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: Evidence for some Asian countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 45(1), 65-83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2004.02.003
  • Çelik, T ve Çetin, A. (2007). Petrol fiyatlarının makroekonomik etkileri: Türkiye ekonomisi için ampirik bir uygulama. Selçuk üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Yüksekokulu Dergisi, 10(1-2), 97-116. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/selcuksbmyd/
  • Dai, P.F., Xiong, X., Zhang, J. and Zhou, W.X. (2022). The role of global economic policy uncertainty in predicting crude oil futures volatility: Evidence from a two-factor GARCH-MIDAS model. Resources Policy, 78, 102849. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102849
  • Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
  • Doan Van, D. (2020). Money supply and inflation impact on economic growth. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 12(1), 121-136. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-10-2018-0152
  • Doroodian, K. and Boyd, R. (2003). The linkage between oil price shocks and economic growth with inflation in the presence of technological advances: A CGE model. Energy Policy, 31(10), 898-1006. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0301-4215(02)00141-6
  • Eberly, J.C. (1994). Adjustment of consumers durables stocks: Evidence from automobile purchases. Journal of Political Economy, 102(3), 403-436. https://doi.org/10.1086/261940
  • Energy Information Administration. (2022). Crude oil in dollars per barrel [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm
  • Eroglu, İ. and Yeter, F. (2022). Time-varying causality between money supply growth and inflation: New evidence from Turkey. Applied Economics Letters, Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2022.2159007
  • Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (2022). Consumer price index [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TURCPIALLMINMEI
  • Gallagher, L.A. and Taylor, M.P. (2002). Permanent and temporary components of stock prices: Evidence from assessing macroeconomic shocks. Southern Economic Journal, 69(2), 345-362. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.2325-8012.2002.tb00496.x
  • Gisser, M. and Goodwin, T.H. (1986). Crude oil and the macroeconomy: Tests of some popular notions: Note. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 18(1), 95-103. https://doi.org/10.2307/1992323
  • Grinsted, A., Moore, J.C. and Jevrejeva, S. (2004). Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 11(5/6), 561-566. https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-11-561-2004
  • Gurley, K. and Kareem, A. (1999). Applications of wavelet transforms in earthquake, wind and ocean engineering. Engineering Structures, 21(2), 149-167. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0141-0296(97)00139-9
  • Gurley, K. Kijewski, T. and Kareem, A. (2003). First-and higher-order correlation detection using wavelet transforms. Journal of Engineering Mechanics, 129(2), 188-201. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9399(2003)129:2(188)
  • Hamilton, J.D. (2008). Oil and the macroeconomy. The new Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2, 1-17. Retrieved from https://econweb.ucsd.edu/
  • Hamilton, J.D. (2009). Causes and consequences of the oil shock of 2007-08 (National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. w15002). Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w15002/w15002.pdf
  • Hossain, A.A. (2010). Monetary targeting for price stability in Bangladesh: How stable is its money demand function and the linkage between money supply growth and inflation? Journal of Asian Economics, 21(6), 564-578. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2010.07.003
  • Husaini, D.H. Puah, C.H. and Lean, H.H. (2019). Energy subsidy and oil price fluctuation, and price behavior in Malaysia: A time series analysis. Energy, 171, 1000-1008. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.01.078
  • Istiak, K. and Alam, M.R. (2019). Oil prices, policy uncertainty and asymmetries in inflation expectations. Journal of Economic Studies. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-02-2018-0074
  • Istrefi, K. and Piloiu, A. Economic policy uncertainty and ınflation expectations (Banque de France Working Paper No. 511). Retrieved from https://ssrn.com/abstract=2510829
  • Jarque, C.M. and Bera, A.K. (1980). Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals. Economics Letters, 6(3), 255-259. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(80)90024-5
  • Jiang, Q. and Cheng, S. (2021). How the fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty of China respond to global oil price volatility: A multi-regime-on-scale approach. Resources Policy, 72, 102121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102121
  • Jones, P.M. and Olson, E. (2013). The time-varying correlation between uncertainty, output, and inflation: Evidence from a DCC-GARCH model. Economics Letters, 118(1), 33-37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.09.012
  • Kibritçioğlu, A. (1999). Türkiye’de akaryakıt ürünü fiyat gelişmeleri ve enflasyon: Yeni bulgular (SBF Tartışma Metinleri No: 14). Erişim adresi: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/0306/0306005.pdf
  • Kilian, L. (2009). Not all oil price shocks are alike: Disentangling demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market. The American Economic Review, 2009, 99(3), 1053-1069. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.3.1053
  • Kilian, L. and Lewis, L.T. (2011). Does the Fed respond to oil price shocks? The Economic Journal, 121(555), 1047-1072. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02437.x
  • Kilian, L. and Zhou, X. (2022). The impact of rising oil prices on US inflation and inflation expectations in 2020–23. Energy Economics, 106228. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106228
  • Kiptui, M. (2009). Oil price pass-through into inflation in Kenya. Paper presented at the African Econometric Society (AES) Conference. Nairobi, Kenya. Retrieved from https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&doi=dbbef39c6e8e048c819795c9030ccd5e8906e88e
  • Lacheheb, M. and Sirag, A. (2019). Oil price and inflation in Algeria: A nonlinear ARDL approach. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 73, 217-222. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2018.12.003
  • Lyu, Y., Tuo, S., Wei, Y. and Yang, M. (2021). Time-varying effects of global economic policy uncertainty shocks on crude oil price volatility: New evidence. Resources Policy, 70, 101943. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101943
  • Mallik, G and Chowdhury, A. (2011). Effect of inflation uncertainty, output uncertainty and oil price on inflation and growth in Australia. Journal of Economic Studies, 38(4), 414-429. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443581111160879
  • Mumtaz, H. and Theodoridis, K. (2018). The changing transmission of uncertainty shocks in the US. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 36(2), 239-252. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2016.1147357
  • Ng, E.K. and Chan, J.C. (2012). Geophysical applications of partial wavelet coherence and multiple wavelet coherence. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 29(12), 1845-1853. https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-12-00056.1
  • Nguyen, B. (2015). Effects of fiscal deficit and money M2 supply on inflation: Evidence from selected economies of Asia. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 20, 49-53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jefas.2015.01.002
  • Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2023). Consumer price index: All items for Turkey [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TURCPIALLMINMEI
  • Phillips, P.C.B. and Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75, 335–346. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913237
  • Riadh, A., Rangan, G. and Millerc, S.M. (2016). Uncertainty and crude oil returns. Energy Economics, 55, 92-100. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.01.012
  • Rua, A. and Nunes, L.C. (2009). International comovement of stock market returns: A wavelet analysis. Journal of Empirical Finance, 16(4), 632-639. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2009.02.002
  • Salisu, A.A., Isah, K.O., Oyewole, O.J. and Akanni, L.O. (2017). Modelling oil price-inflation nexus: The role of asymmetries. Energy, 125, 97-106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.128
  • Simwaka, K., Ligoya, P., Kabango, G. and Chikonda, M. (2012). Money supply and inflation in Malawi: An econometric investigation. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 4(2), 36. https://doi.org/10.3923/ijaef.2012.74.88
  • Su, C.W., Khan, K., Tao, R. and Umar, M. (2020). A review of resource curse burden on inflation in Venezuela. Energy, 204, 117925. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.117925
  • TCMB Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi. (2022). Para ve banka istatistikleri [Veri Seti]. Erişim adresi: https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/dashboard
Toplam 52 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Tuncay Çelik 0000-0003-2667-4786

Mustafa Koçoğlu 0000-0002-2942-8276

Mustafa Duhan Soysal 0000-0002-2616-4412

Yayımlanma Tarihi 2 Temmuz 2023
Kabul Tarihi 1 Temmuz 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Çelik, T., Koçoğlu, M., & Soysal, M. D. (2023). Dışsal Şoklar, Uluslararası Petrol Fiyatları, Para Arzı ve Enflasyon Arasındaki Dinamik İlişkilerin Analizi: Sürekli Dalgacık Yaklaşımından Kanıtlar. Ekonomi Politika Ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8(2), 335-353. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1276314