LINKAGE STRATEGIES AND POLITICAL CHOICES FOR AN AUTHORITARIAN COUNTRY IN TRANSITION: THE CASE OF KAZAKHSTAN

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 2 Sayı: 1, 61 - 80, 31.01.2020

Nygmet Ibadıldın Stina Torjesen Stein Oluf Krıstıansen

Öz

Kazakhstan has made considerable efforts to reduce its dependence on oil and diversify its economy. The country’s leading politicians have also expressed strong commitment to diversification over several years, and linkage creation strategies have been one important tool. In this article, we examine the extent to which political factors are salient when accounting for the peculiar pattern of heavy promotion of diversification with little actual movement in relevant economic sectors in Kazakhstan. We identify political factors that typically come into play and how these factors make diversification difficult in resourcerich countries such as Kazakhstan. A key argument is that not only did political factors act as barriers to diversification, but the actual linkage creation initiatives that were taken served as useful vehicles for rent-seeking behavior, thereby further entrenching skewed political and economic structures that are typical of states with oil-led development. The article also explains why the political leadership in Kazakhstan chose to place so much emphasis in their rhetoric and communication on diversification when the difficulties and possible failures
associated with such policies must have been apparent to them at a fairly early stage.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Institutions, Post-Soviet countries, natural resources, diversification, linkages, Kazakhstan

Kaynakça

• Acemoglu, Daron, Daron Antras and Elhanan Helpman (2007). “Contracts and technology adoption”. The American economic review 97(3): 916–943.
• Aliyev, Ilham (2017). Azerbaijan Economic Priorities in 2017. Available: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/01/azerbaijans-economic-priorities-for-2017/, (Accessed: 8.06.2017).
• Alsharif, Nouf N. (2018). Natural Resources and Economic Diversification: Evidence from the GCC Countries. In: Ashraf Mishrif, Yousuf Al Balushi (eds.) Economic Diversification in the Gulf Region. Singapore: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Arias, Martin L., Miguel Atienza and Jan Cademartori (2014). “Large mining enterprises and regional development in Chile: between the enclave and cluster”. Journal of Economic Geography 14(1): 73-95.
• Auty, Richard (2006). “Mining enclave to economic catalyst: large mineral projects in developing countries”. Brown Journal of World Affairs 13(1): 135-145.
• Bastida, Ana E. (2014). “From extractive to transformative industries: paths for linkages and diversification for resource-driven development”. Mineral Economics 27(2-3): 73–87.
• Baumol, William J., Robert E. Litan and Carl J. Schramm (2007). Good Capitalism, Bad Capitalism, and the Economics of Growth and Prosperity. New Haven: Yale University Press.
• Becker, Jo and Mike McIntire (2015). Cash Flowed to Clinton Foundation Amid Russian Uranium Deal. The New York Times, 23.04.2015. Available: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/24/us/cash-flowed-to-clinton-foundation-as-russians-pressed-for-control-of-uranium-company.html. (Accessed: 8.06.2017).
• Bjornland, Hilde C. and Leif A. Thorsrud (2016). “Boom or Gloom? Examining the Dutch Disease in Two‐speed Economies”. The Economic Journal 126(598): 2219-2256.
• Brooks, Jeffrey (2000). Thank you, comrade Stalin!: Soviet public culture from revolution to Cold War. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
• Burgis, Tom (2017). Spies, lies and the oligarch: inside London’s secret industry. Financial Times, 28.09.2017. Available: https://www.ft.com/content/1411b1a0-a310-11e7-9e4f-7f5e6a7c98a2. (Accessed: 8.06.2017).
• Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment (2016). Linkages to the Resource Sector The Role of Companies, Government and International Development Cooperation. Available: http://ccsi.columbia.edu/files/2016/07/Linkages-to-the-resource-sector-GIZ-CCSI-2016.pdf.pdf. (Accessed: 16.11.2019).
• Dave, Bhavna (2004). A Shrinking Reach of the State? Language Policy and Implementation in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. In: Jones Luong P., (ed.) The Transformation of Central Asia. States and Societies from Soviet Rule to Independence. Cornell University Press.
• Dietsche, Evelyn (2014). “Diversifying mineral economies: conceptualizing the debate on building linkages”. Mineral Economics 27(2-3): 89-102.
• Ellis, Frank (1998). “Household strategies and rural livelihood diversification”. The Journal of Development Studies 35(1): 1-38.
• Farooki, Masuma and Raphael Kaplinsky (2014): “Promoting diversification in resource-rich economies”. Mineral Economics No. 27: 103-113.
• Fak, Alex and Anna Kotelnikova (2018). Russian Oil and Gas – Tickling Giants. Sberbank Cib Investment Research. Available: http://globalstocks.ru/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Sberbank-CIB-OG_Tickling-Giants.pdf. (Accessed: 16.11.2019).
• Forneris, Xavier (2016). The Challenge of Economic Diversification: The Role of Policy and the Investment Climate. Presented at The Economic Developers Alberta Conference Alberta, Canada, 6-8.04.2016. Available: http://www.edaalberta.ca/resources/Documents/Economic%20Diversification-EDA%20Conference-XForneris-April%202016.pdf. (Accessed: 16.11.2019).
• Gaidar, Yegor (2009). “The crisis will lead to a change in the existing system”. Forbes, Russian edition, 15.03.2009. Available: http://www.forbes.ru/interview/8191-krizis-privedet-k-izmeneniyu-sushchestvuyushchei-sistemy. (Accessed: 8.10.2014).
• Gylfason, Thorvaldur (2004). “Natural Resources and Economic Growth: From Dependence to Diversification”. CEPR Discussion Paper No. 4804.
• Hirschman, Albert O. (1958). The Strategy of Economic Development. New Haven: Yale University Press.
• Hirschman, Albert O. (1977). “A Generalized Linkage Approach to Development, with Special Reference to Staples”. Economic Development and Cultural Change No. 25: 67-98.
• Howie, Peter (2018). “Policy Transfer and Diversification in Resource-Dependent Economies: Lessons for Kazakhstan from Alberta”. Politics and Policy 46(1): 110-140.
• Kaplinsky, Raphael, Mike Morris and David Kaplan (2011). “Commodities and Linkages: Industrialisation in Sub-Saharan Africa”. MMCP Discussion Paper No. 13.
• Klueh, Ulrich H., Gonzalo Pastor and Alonso Segura (2009). “Policies to improve the local impact from hydrocarbon extraction: observations on West Africa and possible lessons for Central Asia”. Energy Policy 37(3): 1128–1144.
• Kosanov, Amirzhan (2009). Professionalov NET. Vremya, 12.11.2009. Available: http://www.time.kz/news/archive/2009/11/12/13415. (Accessed: 6.10.2017).
• Kusainov, Daniyar (2014). To emigrate or to stay? quoted in Moldabekov, Daniyar. Kapital newspaper 05.11.2014. Available: https://kapital.kz/gosudarstvo/34774/zhit-v-kazahstane-ili-emigrirovat.html. (Accessed: 6.10.2017).
• Leontief, Wassily (1951). The Structure of the American Economy. New York: Oxford University Press.
• Mamashuly, Asylkhan (2013). Opened by Nazarbayev and later disappeared projects (Otkrytye Nazarbayevym and kanuvshie v letu proekty) Radio Azattyq, 3.07.2013. Available: https://rus.azattyq.org/a/otkrytye-i-nerealizovannye-proekty--v-kazakhstane/25034435.html, (Accessed: 4.10.2017).
• Morrisa, Mike, Raphael Kaplinsky and David Kaplana (2012). ""One thing leads to another" - Commodities, linkages and industrial development". Resources Policy 37(4): 408-416.
• Mazzola, Fabio and Bruni Sergio (2000). "The Role of Linkages in Firm Performance: Evidence from Southern Italy". Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 43(2): 199-221.
• Movchan, Andrey, Zotin Alexander and Vladimir Grigoryev (2017). Managing the Resource Curse. Strategies of Oil-Dependent Economies in the Modern Era. Carnegie Moscow Center. Available: https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Movchan_Report_Final_Print.pdf. (Accessed: 16.11.2019).
• Nazarbayev, Nursultan (2015). Modern State for All: Five Institutional Reforms. Electoral Program of the candidate for Presidency of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Kazakhstanskaya Pravda, 31.03.2015. Available: http://www.kazpravda.kz/articles/view/sovremennoe-gosudarstvo-dlya-vseh-pyat-institutsionalnih-reform1/. (Accessed: 4.10.2017).
• Decree of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, No. 957 (2010). "On approval of the list of government programs". Available: http://invest.gov.kz/uploads/files/2015/12/03/state-program-of-industrial-innovative-development-of-kazakhstan-for-2015-2019.pdf. (Accessed: 30.09.2017).
• OECD Stat (2011). Input-Output tables. Available: http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=IOTS. (Accessed: 2.10.2015).
• OEC MIT (2017). The Observatory of Economic Complexity. Azerbaijan. Available: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/aze/#Exports. (Accessed: 2.10.2017).
• OEC MIT (2017a). The Observatory of Economic Complexity. Kazakhstan. Available: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/kaz/#Exports. (Accessed: 2.10.2017).
• Ospanova, Saule (2009). Local Content Policy: Kazakhstan Review. British Embassy Astana and IIED. Available: http://pubs.iied.org/pdfs/G02761.pdf. (Accessed: 6.10.2017).
• Perroux, François (1955). "Note sur la notion de "pole de croissance" (Note on the notion of pole of growth). Economie Aplique´e No. 8: 307-320.
• Perroux, François (1959). Le´conomie du XXe siecle. Paris: Presses Universitaries de Paris.
• Pomfret, Richard (2009). “Using energy resources to diversify the economy: Agricultural price distortions in Kazakhstan”. Comparative Economic Studies 51(2): 181-212.
• Rasmussen, Poul N. (1957). Studies in Inter-sectoral Relations. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
• Ross, Michael L. (2012). The Oil Curse: How Petroleum Wealth Shapes the Development of Nations. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
• Roy, Oliver (2000). The new Central Asia: the creation of nations. London: I.B. Tauris.
• Scannelly, Kara (2016). Corruption: Moving Money Out of Purgatory. Financial Times, 6.07.2016. Available: https://www.ft.com/content/10d8679c-228b-11e6-9d4d-c11776a5124d. (Accessed: 16.09.2016).
• Sorbello, Paolo (2017). Pension Fund Problems in Kazakhstan. The Diplomat, 14.06.2017. Available: http://thediplomat.com/2017/06/pension-fund-problems-in-kazakhstan/. (Accessed: 07.10.2017).
• Stiglitz, Joseph (2007). “What is The Role of the State”. In Escaping the Resource Curse (eds.) Macartan Humphreys, Jeffrey D. Sachs, and Joseph E. Stiglitz. New York: Columbia University Press.
• Tengrinews (2014). $2.7 billion out of Kazakhstan National Oil Fund to stimulate economy in 2014, 14.04.2014. Available: https://en.tengrinews.kz/finance/27-billion-out-of-Kazakhstan-National-Oil-Fund-to-stimulate-252920/. (Accessed: 23.09.2016).
• The State Program for Development of Industry in the Republic of Azerbaijan for year 2015-2020 (2014). Available: https://azertag.az/ru/xeber/GOSUDARSTVENNAYA_PROGRAMMA_po_razvitiyu_promyshlennosti_v_Azerbaidzhanskoi_Respublike_na_2015_2020_gody-823447. (Accessed: 07.10.2017).
• The State program of forced Industrial and Innovative development 2010-2014 (2010). Available: http://www.baiterek.gov.kz/en/programs/gpfiir-program/. (Accessed: 3.10.2017).
• The Strategy “Kazakhstan 2030” (1997). Available: http://prokuror.gov.kz/eng/state/acts-president/strategy-kazakhstan-2030. (Accessed: 30.09.2017).
• The World Bank (2010). Azerbaijan Country Economic Memorandum Stresses Importance of Export-Led Diversification for the Oil Rich Nation, Available: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2010/02/24/azerbaijan-country-economic-memorandum-stresses-importance-of-export-led-diversification-for-the-oil-rich-nation. (Accessed: 17.10.2017).
• The World Bank (2015). Economic Diversification and Nonextractive Growth. In Engagement in Resource‐Rich Developing Countries: The Cases of the Plurinational State of Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and Zambia. Washington, DC: World Bank. Available: http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/sites/default/files/Data/reports/chapters/ccpe-synthesis_ch4.pdf.
• The World Bank (2016). Kazakhstan: A Long Road to Recovery Kazakhstan Economic Update, No. 3. Available: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/119541468948826131/pdf/107133-WP-ADD-SERIES-KazakhstanALongRoadtoRecovery-PUBLIC.pdf. (Accessed: 16.11.2019).
• The World Bank (2016). The oil and gas sector as share of GDP in 1990. Available: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS?page=4. (Accessed: 18.09.2014).
• The World Bank (2016). World Bank Group Engagement in Resource-Rich Developing Countries: The Cases of the Plurinational State of Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and Zambia. Clustered Country Program Evaluation Synthesis Report. An Independent Evaluation. Available: http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/Data/Evaluation/files/ccpe-synthesis_full.pdf. (Accessed: 23.09.2016).
• Tugelbayeva, Dinara (2015). Polypropylene and polyethylene plant will be built in Kazakhstan. Vlast.kz, 19.03.2015. Available: https://vlast.kz/novosti/v_kazahstane_postrojat_kompleks_po_proizvodstvu_polijetilena_i_polipropilena-10222.html. (Accessed: 7.10.2017).
• Van Eeghen, Willem M., Indermit S. Gill, Ivailo V. Izvorski and Donato De Rosa (2014). Diversified Development: Making the Most of natural Resources in Eurasia (Europe and Central Asia Flagship) World Bank Publications. 26.02.2014. Washington, D.C. World Bank Group.
• Ville, Simon and Olan Wicken (2014). “The dynamics of resource-based economic development: evidence from Australia and Norway”. Industrial and Corporate Change 22(5): 1341-1371.
• Wilson, Andrew (2005). Virtual politics: faking democracy in the post-Soviet world. New Haven: Yale University Press.
• Zhumzhumina, Altynai and Dinara Urazova (2014). Eni and KazMunaiGas to build a shipyard in Caspian Sea, Tenrginews, 14.06.2014. Available: https://en.tengrinews.kz/industry_infrastructure/Eni-and-KazMunaiGas-to-build-shipyard-at-Caspian-Sea-254185/. (Accessed: 6.10.2017).