Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model

Uğur BAŞER; Mehmet BOZOĞLU; Nevra ALHAS EROĞLU; Bakiye KILIÇ TOPUZ

doi:10.34110/forecasting.482789

Yıl 2018, Cilt 02 , Sayı 2, Sayfalar 27 - 33 2018-12-31

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Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model

Uğur BAŞER ^[1] , Mehmet BOZOĞLU ^[2] , Nevra ALHAS EROĞLU ^[3] , Bakiye KILIÇ TOPUZ ^[4]

https://doi.org/10.34110/forecasting.482789

Turkey is one of main producers and exporter countries of chestnut in the world. It is essential to assess scientifically the accurate future production and export potentials of chestnut on the basis of past trends. This study focuses on forecasting the chestnut production and export of Turkey up to the year 2021 using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The time series data for the chestnut production and export of Turkey were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Annual data for the period of 1961-2016 was used for the study. The study revealed that the best models for forecasting the chestnut production and export were ARIMA (1, 1, 1) and ARIMA (1, 2, 1), respectively. The ARIMA model showed that while the chestnut production of Turkey in 2021 would be 64.183 tonnes with lower limit of 38.946 tonnes and upper limit of 89420 tonnes. However, Turkey’s chestnut export in 2021 would be 7.962 tonnes with lower limit of 563 tonnes and upper limit of 15362 tonnes. The study concluded that Turkey’s chestnut production and export will increase in the forecasted years. The stakeholders of chestnut sector should take account these projections in their production and marketing decision.

Chestnut, Forecasting, Production, Export, ARIMA model, Turkey

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Birincil Dil	en
Konular	Matematik
Yayınlanma Tarihi	02 (2) 2018
Bölüm	Articles
Yazarlar	Orcid: 0000-0003-4961-2764 Yazar: Uğur BAŞER (Sorumlu Yazar) Kurum: ONDOKUZ MAYIS UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF AGRICULTURE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS Ülke: Turkey Orcid: 0000-0001-8333-1865 Yazar: Mehmet BOZOĞLU Kurum: ONDOKUZ MAYIS UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF AGRICULTURE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS Ülke: Turkey Orcid: 0000-0002-1188-8274 Yazar: Nevra ALHAS EROĞLU Kurum: Turkish Statistical Institute Regional Directorate Ülke: Turkey Orcid: 0000-0002-3607-4306 Yazar: Bakiye KILIÇ TOPUZ Kurum: IGDIR UNIVERSITY, IĞDIR FACULTY OF AGRICULTURE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS Ülke: Turkey
Tarihler	Yayımlanma Tarihi : 31 Aralık 2018

Bibtex	@araştırma makalesi { forecasting482789, journal = {Turkish Journal of Forecasting}, issn = {}, eissn = {2618-6594}, address = {Giresun Üniversitesi Fen Edebiyat Fakültesi İstatistik Bölümü, Güre Yerleşkesi, 28100 Merkez, Giresun}, publisher = {Giresun Üniversitesi}, year = {2018}, volume = {02}, pages = {27 - 33}, doi = {10.34110/forecasting.482789}, title = {Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model}, key = {cite}, author = {Başer, Uğur and Bozoğlu, Mehmet and Alhas Eroğlu, Nevra and Kılıç Topuz, Bakiye} }
APA	Başer, U , Bozoğlu, M , Alhas Eroğlu, N , Kılıç Topuz, B . (2018). Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model . Turkish Journal of Forecasting , Volume: 02 Issue: 2 , 27-33 . DOI: 10.34110/forecasting.482789
MLA	Başer, U , Bozoğlu, M , Alhas Eroğlu, N , Kılıç Topuz, B . "Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model" . Turkish Journal of Forecasting 02 (2018 ): 27-33 <https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/forecasting/issue/39381/482789>
Chicago	Başer, U , Bozoğlu, M , Alhas Eroğlu, N , Kılıç Topuz, B . "Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model". Turkish Journal of Forecasting 02 (2018 ): 27-33
RIS	TY - JOUR T1 - Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model AU - Uğur Başer , Mehmet Bozoğlu , Nevra Alhas Eroğlu , Bakiye Kılıç Topuz Y1 - 2018 PY - 2018 N1 - doi: 10.34110/forecasting.482789 DO - 10.34110/forecasting.482789 T2 - Turkish Journal of Forecasting JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 27 EP - 33 VL - 02 IS - 2 SN - -2618-6594 M3 - doi: 10.34110/forecasting.482789 UR - https://doi.org/10.34110/forecasting.482789 Y2 - 2019 ER -
EndNote	%0 Turkish Journal of Forecasting Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model %A Uğur Başer , Mehmet Bozoğlu , Nevra Alhas Eroğlu , Bakiye Kılıç Topuz %T Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model %D 2018 %J Turkish Journal of Forecasting %P -2618-6594 %V 02 %N 2 %R doi: 10.34110/forecasting.482789 %U 10.34110/forecasting.482789
ISNAD	Başer, Uğur , Bozoğlu, Mehmet , Alhas Eroğlu, Nevra , Kılıç Topuz, Bakiye . "Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model". Turkish Journal of Forecasting 02 / 2 (Aralık 2018): 27-33 . https://doi.org/10.34110/forecasting.482789
AMA	Başer U , Bozoğlu M , Alhas Eroğlu N , Kılıç Topuz B . Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model. TJF. 2018; 02(2): 27-33.
Vancouver	Başer U , Bozoğlu M , Alhas Eroğlu N , Kılıç Topuz B . Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model. Turkish Journal of Forecasting. 2018; 02(2): 27-33.
IEEE	U. Başer , M. Bozoğlu , N. Alhas Eroğlu ve B. Kılıç Topuz , "Forecasting Chestnut Production and Export of Turkey Using ARIMA Model", Turkish Journal of Forecasting, c. 02, sayı. 2, ss. 27-33, Ara. 2019, doi:10.34110/forecasting.482789